NMME Progress and Plans
|
|
|
- Doreen Walsh
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 NMME Progress and Plans Jin Huang NCEP Climate Test Bed (CTB) February 12, 2014 Acknowledgement CTB/SAB, NOAA/CPO, NCEP, NMME Team, and other US contributing agencies (NSF,DOE, and NASA) and Canada.
2 North American What is NMME? NMME Phase-I: An experimental system initiated as a Climate Test Bed (CTB) research project supported by NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) in FY11. NMME Phase-II: An improved experimental system as a FY12-FY13 MAPP/CTB research project with additional support from NSF, DOE and NASA. NMME Expansion Project in High Impact Weather Prediction Pilot (HIWPP) Project from Sandy Supplemental Fund All participating models strictly follow the same protocol and re-run hindcasts after each model upgrade
3 Model Hindcast Period Phrase-I NMME Forecast Providers No. of Member NCEP-CFSv (20) GFDL-CM CMC1- CanCM3 CMC2- CanCM4 Current NMME Forecast Providers Arrangement of Members 4 members (0,6,12,18Z) every 5th day All 1st of the month 0Z All 1st of the month 0Z All 1st of the month 0Z Lead (months) Model Resolution: Atmosphere 0-9 T126L x2.5deg L CanAM3 T63L31 CanAM4 T63L35 Model Resolution: Ocean MOM4 L deg Eq Reference Saha et al. (2010) MOM4 L50 Delworth et 0.30 deg Eq al. (2006) CanOM4 L40 Merryfield 0.94 deg Eq et al. (2012) CanOM4 L40 Merryfield 0.94 deg Eq et al. (2012) NCAR- CCSM All 1st of the month 0-11 T85L26 POP L deg Eq Kirtman and Min (2009) NASA- GEOS members every 5th days; 7 members on the last day of the previous month 0-9 1x1.25deg L72 MOM4 L40 1/4 deg at Eq Rienecker et al. (2008) Upcoming new/upgraded models: NCAR-CCSM4: May 2014 GFDL-FLOR: March 2014 NCAR-CESM1: April
4 Home Site Map News Organization Search Go HOME > NMME Forecasts of Monthly Climate Anomalies Welcome to the National Multi-Model Ensemble home! Data and Current Forecasts NMME real time seasonal forecast since August 2011 following CPC operational schedule Monthly telecons to discuss research and operational topics 3-month mean spatial anomalies 1-month mean spatial anomalies Niño3.4 Plumes International MME Experimental: Probability forecasts NMME Realtime Forecasts Archive NMME Phase-I Hindcast Data About the NMME Description of the NMME Phase-I Forecast Models CTB Activities & Documents Join the NMME mailing list
5 NMME Data Available to Users 1. Realtime forecasts from CPC website 2. Phase I Reforecast data in IRI website available now Monthly Mean of 30 year reforecast 8 variables (P, T, SST, Z200, Tmax, Tmin Soil Moisture, Runoff ) 3. Phase II Reforecast data in NCAR Complete monthly Mean of 30 year reforecast Comprehensive daily reforecast data of selected (189 ) variables
6 Comparison of CFSv2 skill vs NMME July 1 start DJF SST forecast Ranked Probability Skill Score based on 30-year NMME hindcast data NMME (B. Kirtman et al.) CFSv2
7 NMME Increases Forecast Reliability T2m October Starts JFM Verification
8 Skills of NINO3.4 hindcasts come more from more models than more members (T. Delsole) Testing the hypothesis that single-model skill equals multimodel skill of NINO3.4 hindcasts
9 CCSM3 Benefits NMME Complementary Correlations All Others (24 Member Ensemble) vs. CCSM3 NMME Benefits CCSM3 Ensemble CFSv1(1)+IRIa(1)+IRId(1)+CM2.1(1)+GEOS5(1)+CFSv1(1) vs. CCSM3(6) 9
10 Real-time forecast since Aug RT verification: CONUS NMME Forecast Skill Verification Year 1 Year 2 T2m Prate
11 RT verification: CONUS NMME Real-time Forecast Verification NMME precipitation forecast for Jan is good Tforecast is not so good (Emily Becker)
12 Jan 2014 SPI3 NMME Drought Forecast Products Jan2014 SPI6 SPI Forecasts based on NMME Feb 2014 Feb
13 Status and Impacts of Model Upgrades NCAR/CCSM4 (scheduled for CPC operation in May 2014) CCSM4 CCSM3 Hindcast Evolution of NINO3.4 in CCSM3 and CCSM4 based on 30 year ( ) hindcasts GFDL FLOR for CPC operation in May,2014)
14 Testing NMME Sub-seasonal Forecast Protocol Experimental Protocol 45-day Reforecasts , November-only Initializations (every 5 days) on 2nd, 7th, 12th, 17th, 22th, 27 th At least 3 ensemble members (perturbations decided by individual modeling groups) Limited set of variables: SST, U200, U850, OLR, Precip, MSLP, Z200 Participating Models a)ncep-cfsv2 b)nasa-gmao c)rsmas/ncar-ccsm4 d)ncep-emc GEFS e)canada? Goal: To demonstrate the potential benefit of a subseasonal NMME in a retrospective context To provide a framework for a future real-time subseasonal NMME (After Kathy Pegion)
15 NMME Near Term Plans Sustain and improve the experimental NMME seasonal forecast system Documents on Operationalize NMME and Vision and 5-Year Plan for NMME are developed New/upgraded models; optimizing the system; application products Community efforts to analyze the NMME Phase-II data A CMIP type data for ISI time scales (available in July 2014) Develop NMME sub-seasonal forecast capability Linkage/contribution to S2S project A community-wide NMME workshop (possibly 2015) for planning NMME Phase-III
16 NMME Benefits and integrates Research and Operations Improved operational prediction capabilities by leveraging model development and expertise from the research community Research Topics Research Topics AO NCEP AO Co-PI NCEP LOI Co-PI Proposal LOI Proposal Reanalysis / Reforecasts Reanalysis / Earth Reforecasts System Modeling Earth System Tropical Modeling oscillations Tropical Model oscillations physics Model Etc. physics Etc. Research Research Climate Forecast Climate Products Forecast MME Products MME CFS Improvements CFS Improvements R2O R2O O2R O2R Operations Operations Improved products Improved and services products and services Research R2O O2R Operations Openly distributed hindcast and real time data following strict protocol Operational setting for o model diagnosis and evaluations o climate predictability and prediction research
NOAA MAPP Program S2S Activities Focus on select products/capabilities/metrics
NOAA MAPP Program S2S Activities Focus on select products/capabilities/metrics Annarita Mariotti, Dan Barrie, Ali Stevens and Emily Read NOAA OAR/Climate Program Office MAPP Mission and Priority Areas
NOAA Climate Test Bed Jin Huang CTB Director
Research Topics AO NCEP Co-PI LOI Proposal Reanalysis / Reforecasts Earth System Modeling Tropical oscillations Model physics Etc. Research Climate Forecast Products MME CFS Improvements R2O O2R Operations
Climate Program Office Research Transition Activities
Climate Program Office Research Transition Activities Dan Barrie, Annarita Mariotti, Jin Huang, Monika Kopacz, Sandy Lucas, Ken Mooney Building a Weather-Ready Nation by Transitioning Academic Research
Activities of NOAA s NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Activities of NOAA s NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Jon Gottschalck and Dave DeWitt Improving Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting for Drought Preparedness May 27-29, 2015 San Diego,
Wassila Mamadou Thiaw Climate Prediction Center
Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting for Africa Wassila Mamadou Thiaw Climate Prediction Center NOAA Forecast Con/nuum e.g. Disaster management planning and response e.g. Crop Selec6on, Water management
S2S Research Activities at NOAA s Climate Program Office (CPO)
S2S Research Activities at NOAA s (CPO) Dan Barrie, Program Manager, NOAA September 2016 MAPP Program: Annarita Mariotti (director), Heather Archambault (program manager), Will Chong (program assistant),
CPC. Dan Collins and Emily Becker* NOAA Climate Predic9on Center with slides from Jon Go?schalck and Dave DeWi?
S2S @ CPC Dan Collins and Emily Becker* NOAA Climate Predic9on Center with slides from Jon Go?schalck and Dave DeWi? * and Innovim CPC odds and ends Official U.S. NWS S2S climate forecasts Two Branches:
Numerical Seasonal Prediction: Approaches and Challenges
Numerical Seasonal Prediction: Approaches and Challenges Malaquías Peña Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA Acknowledgments: Huug van den Dool (CPC), Suru Saha (EMC), Yuejian Zhu (EMC), NMME,
Seasonal forecasting with the NMME with a focus on Africa
Seasonal forecasting with the NMME with a focus on Africa Bill Merryfield Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Victoria, BC Canada School on Climate System Prediction and Regional
NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) in the context of the US National Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) for Seasonal Prediction
NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) in the context of the US National Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) for Seasonal Prediction Suru Saha Huug van den Dool, Qin Zhang, Malaquias Pena Mendez and Emily
Climate Prediction Center Research Interests/Needs
Climate Prediction Center Research Interests/Needs 1 Outline Operational Prediction Branch research needs Operational Monitoring Branch research needs New experimental products at CPC Background on CPC
Developing Operational MME Forecasts for Subseasonal Timescales
Developing Operational MME Forecasts for Subseasonal Timescales Dan C. Collins NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Acknowledgements: Stephen Baxter and Augustin Vintzileos (CPC and UMD) 1 Outline I. Operational
Challenges in forecasting the MJO
Challenges in forecasting the MJO Augustin Vintzileos University of Maryland ESSIC/CICS-MD Jon Gottschalck NOAA/NCEP/CPC Outline Forecasting at the interface between weather and climate Multi-scale impacts
The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS)
The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) Bill Merryfield, Woo-Sung Lee, Slava Kharin, George Boer, John Scinocca, Greg Flato Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma)
Sierra Weather and Climate Update
Sierra Weather and Climate Update 2014-15 Kelly Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada Yosemite Hydroclimate Workshop Yosemite Valley, 2015 October 8-9 Percent of
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 17, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING November 17, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today Feature of the month: More climate models! Climate Forecast Basics Climate System Review
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING. December 15, 2014 Rick Thoman NWS Alaska Region ESSD Climate Services
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING December 15, 2014 Rick Thoman NWS Alaska Region ESSD Climate Services Today Climate Forecast Basics Review of recent climate forecasts and conditions CPC Forecasts
1. INTRODUCTION 2. HIGHLIGHTS
Bulletin Issue January 2017 Issue Number: ICPAC/03/44 IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Seasonal Bulletin, Review for October to December (OND) Season 2016 For referencing within this bulletin,
Forecasting at the interface between weather and climate: beyond the RMM-index
Forecasting at the interface between weather and climate: beyond the RMM-index Augustin Vintzileos University of Maryland ESSIC/CICS-MD Jon Gottschalck NOAA/NCEP/CPC Outline The Global Tropics Hazards
NMME/SUBX MEETING DRAFT AGENDA
NMME/SUBX MEETING DRAFT AGENDA Draft 17 August WEDNESDAY 8:00 9:00 REGISTRATION and continental breakfast 9:00 9:15 Welcome, Logistics, ETC NMME/SubX Overview 9:15 9:30 NMME Program Development, Jin Huang,
Environment and Climate Change Canada / GPC Montreal
Environment and Climate Change Canada / GPC Montreal Assessment, research and development Bill Merryfield Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) with contributions from colleagues at
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: Autumn sea ice near Alaska Climate Forecast Basics Climate
EMC Probabilistic Forecast Verification for Sub-season Scales
EMC Probabilistic Forecast Verification for Sub-season Scales Yuejian Zhu Environmental Modeling Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA Acknowledgement: Wei Li, Hong Guan and Eric Sinsky Present for the DTC Test Plan and
Behind the Climate Prediction Center s Extended and Long Range Outlooks Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
Behind the Climate Prediction Center s Extended and Long Range Outlooks Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 2012 Outline Mission Extended Range Outlooks (6-10/8-14)
Climate Hazards Group, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA. 2
Forecasting seasonal agricultural droughts in East Africa using satellite based observations, land surface models and dynamical weather/climate forecasts Shraddhanand Shukla 1, Amy McNally 3,4, Greg Husak
Challenges to Improving the Skill of Weekly to Seasonal Climate Predictions. David DeWitt with contributions from CPC staff
Challenges to Improving the Skill of Weekly to Seasonal Climate Predictions David DeWitt with contributions from CPC staff 1 Outline CPC Background Prediction, monitoring, diagnostics, and climate services
Skillful climate forecasts using model-analogs
Skillful climate forecasts using model-analogs Hui Ding 1,2, Matt Newman 1,2, Mike Alexander 2, and Andrew Wittenberg 3 1. CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder 2. NOAA ESRL PSD 3. NOAA GFDL NCEP operational
The CMC Monthly Forecasting System
The CMC Monthly Forecasting System Hai Lin Meteorological Research Division RPN seminar May 20, 2011 Acknowledgements Support and help from many people Gilbert Brunet, Bernard Dugas, Juan-Sebastian Fontecilla,
Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes
Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes Frederic Vitart and Franco Molteni ECMWF, Reading, U.K. Using ECMWF forecasts, 4-6 June 2014 1 Outline Recent progress and plans
Seasonal forecast from System 4
Seasonal forecast from System 4 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Outline Overview of System 4 System 4 forecasts for DJF 2015/2016 Plans for System 5 System 4 - Overview System 4 seasonal
Subseasonal Prediction Skill from SubX
Subseasonal Prediction Skill from SubX Timothy DelSole George Mason University, Fairfax, Va and Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies September 12, 2017 collaborators: Abhishekh Srivastava, Laurie Trenary,
Contemporary Challenges in Short-Term Climate Forecasting. David DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center
Contemporary Challenges in Short-Term Climate Forecasting David DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center 1 Outline Commercial: NOAA Administrator s Award for Decisions Support Services Associated with
THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM. Suranjana Saha, ensemble workshop 5/10/2011 THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER NCEP/NWS/NOAA
THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM Suranjana Saha, ensemble workshop 5/10/2011 THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER NCEP/NWS/NOAA An upgrade to the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) was implemented in late
Seasonal forecasts presented by:
Seasonal forecasts presented by: Latest Update: 10 November 2018 The seasonal forecasts presented here by Seasonal Forecast Worx are based on forecast output of the coupled ocean-atmosphere models administered
Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA s Climate Prediction Center Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Operations Wassila M. Thiaw Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction Acknowlegement: Mathew Rosencrans, Arun
WMO Lead Centre activities for global sub-seasonal MME prediction
Workshop on sub-seasonal predictability, 2-5 November 2015, ECMWF WMO Lead Centre activities for global sub-seasonal MME prediction Suhee Park Korea Meteorological Administration Contents Introduction
Multi-Model Ensembles in NWS Climate Prediction Center Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts: Metrics for Impact Events
Multi-Model Ensembles in NWS Climate Prediction Center Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts: Metrics for Impact Events Dan Collins, Climate Prediction Center Sarah Strazzo, CSIRO partners Q.J. Wang and Andrew
Multiple Ocean Analysis Initialization for Ensemble ENSO Prediction using NCEP CFSv2
Multiple Ocean Analysis Initialization for Ensemble ENSO Prediction using NCEP CFSv2 B. Huang 1,2, J. Zhu 1, L. Marx 1, J. L. Kinter 1,2 1 Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies 2 Department of Atmospheric,
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy Today s Outline Feature of the month: Southeast Drought Update Climate Forecast Basics
NAEFS Status and Future Plan
NAEFS Status and Future Plan Yuejian Zhu Ensemble team leader Environmental Modeling Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA Presentation for International S2S conference February 14 2014 NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast
Potential Operational Capability for S2S Prediction
Potential Operational Capability for S2S Prediction Yuejian Zhu Environmental Modeling Center Acknowledgements: Brian Gross and Vijay Tallapragada Staffs of EMC and ESRL Present for Metrics, Post-processing,
Leveraging ISI Multi-Model Prediction for Navy Operations: Proposal to the Office of Naval Research
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Leveraging ISI Multi-Model Prediction for Navy Operations: Proposal to the Office of Naval Research PI: James L. Kinter
Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for December 2017 May 2018
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for December 2017 May 2018 BUSAN, 24 November 2017 The synthesis of the latest model forecasts for December 2017 to May 2018 (DJFMAM) from the
Seasonal Prediction, based on Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction system (CanSIPS) for the Fifth South West Indian Ocean Climate Outlook Forum
Seasonal Prediction, based on Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction system (CanSIPS) for the Fifth South West Indian Ocean Climate Outlook Forum Dr. Marko Markovic NWP Section Canadian Centre For
Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes
Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes Frederic Vitart and Franco Molteni ECMWF, Reading, U.K. 1 Outline 30 years ago: the start of ensemble, extended-range predictions
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING. January 23, 2015 Rick Thoman ESSD Climate Services
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING January 23, 2015 Rick Thoman ESSD Climate Services Today Climate Forecast Basics Review of recent climate forecasts and conditions CPC Forecasts and observations
The benefits and developments in ensemble wind forecasting
The benefits and developments in ensemble wind forecasting Erik Andersson Slide 1 ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Slide 1 ECMWF s global forecasting system High resolution forecast
The U. S. Winter Outlook
The 2017-2018 U. S. Winter Outlook Michael Halpert Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center Mike.Halpert@noaa.gov http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Outline About the Seasonal Outlook Review of 2016-17 U. S.
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
ESPC Analysis of Interagency Extended-Range Ensemble Prediction
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. ESPC Analysis of Interagency Extended-Range Ensemble Prediction Carolyn Reynolds Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, CA
Prospects for subseasonal forecast of Tropical Cyclone statistics with the CFS
Prospects for subseasonal forecast of Tropical Cyclone statistics with the CFS Augustin Vintzileos (1)(3), Tim Marchok (2), Hua-Lu Pan (3) and Stephen J. Lord (1) SAIC (2) GFDL (3) EMC/NCEP/NOAA During
ENSO prediction using Multi ocean Analysis Ensembles (MAE) with NCEP CFSv2: Deterministic skill and reliability
The World Weather Open Science Conference (WWOSC 2014) 16 21 August 2014, Montreal, Canada ENSO prediction using Multi ocean Analysis Ensembles (MAE) with NCEP CFSv2: Deterministic skill and reliability
Expansion of Climate Prediction Center Products
Expansion of Climate Prediction Center Products Wanqiu Wang (CPC) Stephen Baxter (CPC) Rick Thoman (NWS) VAWS webinar, January 17, 2017 CPC Sea Ice Predictions Wanqiu Wang Thomas Collow Yanyun Liu Arun
Predicting South Asian Monsoon through Spring Predictability Barrier
Predicting South Asian Monsoon through Spring Predictability Barrier Suryachandra A. Rao Associate Mission Director, Monsoon Mission Project Director, High Performance Computing Indian Institute of Tropical
Overview on Climate Predictability and Prediction
Overview on Climate Predictability and Prediction CPPA Principal Investigator's Meeting Silver Spring, Maryland 29 Sep -1 Oct 2008 S. Schubert, H., H. Wang, M. Suarez, Randy Koster, Y. Chang, and many
The Maritime Continent as a Prediction Barrier
The Maritime Continent as a Prediction Barrier for the MJO Augustin Vintzileos EMC/NCEP SAIC Points to take back home. Forecast of the MJO is at, average, skillful for lead times of up to circa 2 weeks.
AnuMS 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
AnuMS 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season : August 12, 2018 by Dale C. S. Destin (follow @anumetservice) Director (Ag), Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service (ABMS) The *AnuMS (Antigua Met Service) is
NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Yuejian Zhu Ensemble Team Leader Environmental Modeling Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA February
NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Yuejian Zhu Ensemble Team Leader Environmental Modeling Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA February 20 2014 Current Status (since Feb 2012) Model GFS V9.01 (Spectrum, Euler
GPC Exeter forecast for winter Crown copyright Met Office
GPC Exeter forecast for winter 2015-2016 Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5) ensemble prediction system the source for Met Office monthly and seasonal forecasts uses a coupled model (atmosphere
On the clustering of climate models in ensemble seasonal forecasting
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39,, doi:10.1029/2012gl052735, 2012 On the clustering of climate models in ensemble seasonal forecasting Xing Yuan 1 and Eric F. Wood 1 Received 13 June 2012; revised
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
ECMWF: Weather and Climate Dynamical Forecasts
ECMWF: Weather and Climate Dynamical Forecasts Medium-Range (0-day) Partial coupling Extended + Monthly Fully coupled Seasonal Forecasts Fully coupled Atmospheric model Atmospheric model Wave model Wave
Celebrating the Climate Prediction Center s 25 th Anniversary: Current NCEP Climate Activities
Celebrating the Climate Prediction Center s 25 th Anniversary: Current NCEP Climate Activities Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP The 29 th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop University of Wisconsin,
Michael B. Ek 1, Youlong Xia 1,2, Jesse Meng 1,2, and Jiarui Dong 1,2
Michael B. Ek 1, Youlong Xia 1,2, Jesse Meng 1,2, and Jiarui Dong 1,2 1 Land-Hydrology Team Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) National Weather Service
NOAA/WSWC Workshop on Seasonal Forecast Improvements. Kevin Werner, NOAA Jeanine Jones, CA/DWR
NOAA/WSWC Workshop on Seasonal Forecast Improvements Kevin Werner, NOAA Jeanine Jones, CA/DWR Outline Workshop motivation Goals Agenda 2 Workshop Motivation Opportunity for application of improved seasonal
MJO prediction Intercomparison using the S2S Database Frédéric Vitart (ECMWF)
MJO prediction Intercomparison using the S2S Database Frédéric Vitart (ECMWF) Slide 1 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016 1 INDEX The S2S project and S2S Database MJO prediction in S2S models MJO teleconnections
David G. DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NOAA/NWS
CPC Current Capabilities and Metrics (Part I) and Key Science Challenges to Improving S2S Forecast Skill (Part II) David G. DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NOAA/NWS 1 Outline Disclaimer
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING. October 27, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING October 27, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today Feature of the month: West Pacific Typhoons Climate Forecast Basics Climate System Review
WSWC/NOAA Workshops on S2S Precipitation Forecasting
WSWC/NOAA Workshops on S2S Precipitation Forecasting San Diego, May 2015 Salt Lake City at NWS Western Region HQ, October 2015 Las Vegas at Colorado River Water Users Association, December 2015 College
NOAA Climate Program and CPPA Overview (Climate Prediction Program for the Americas)
NOAA Climate Program and CPPA Overview (Climate Prediction Program for the Americas) Jin Huang NOAA Climate Program Office June 3, 2009 NOAA Climate Goal Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance
The U. S. Winter Outlook
The 2018-2019 U. S. Winter Outlook Michael Halpert Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center Mike.Halpert@noaa.gov http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Outline About the Seasonal Outlook Review of 2017-18 U. S.
Seasonal Climate Prediction at Climate Prediction Center CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA/DoC. Huug van den Dool
Seasonal Climate Prediction at Climate Prediction Center CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA/DoC Huug van den Dool huug.vandendool@noaa.gov Menu of CPC predictions: 6-10 day (daily) Week 2 (daily) Monthly (monthly + update)
Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for July December 2017
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for July December 2017 BUSAN, 26 June 2017 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for July December 2017 (JASOND) at the APEC Climate Center
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 October 2017
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 October 2017 Outline Summary Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
Experimental Extended Range GEFS
Experimental Extended Range GEFS Malaquías Peña, Dingchen Hou, Dick Wobus, YuejianZhu Acknowledgment: EMC s Ensemble Group, EMC s Global C&W Modeling Branch 10 Jan 2014 WMO InternaTonal Conference on Subseasonal
How far in advance can we forecast cold/heat spells?
Sub-seasonal time scales: a user-oriented verification approach How far in advance can we forecast cold/heat spells? Laura Ferranti, L. Magnusson, F. Vitart, D. Richardson, M. Rodwell Danube, Feb 2012
Current status of operations of Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF) Alexander Montoro Technical Expert on Climate and Weather Services
Current status of operations of Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF) Alexander Montoro Technical Expert on Climate and Weather Services Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme
Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018 Date issued: May 28, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has now moved into the neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño
Development of Multi-model Ensemble technique and its application Daisuke Nohara
Development of Multi-model Ensemble technique and its application Daisuke Nohara APEC Climate Center (APCC), Busan, Korea 2007/2/21 JMA Contents 1. Introduction of APCC 2. Seasonal forecast based on multi-model
4.3.2 Configuration. 4.3 Ensemble Prediction System Introduction
4.3 Ensemble Prediction System 4.3.1 Introduction JMA launched its operational ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) for one-month forecasting, one-week forecasting, and seasonal forecasting in March of 1996,
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
Improving Drought Forecasts: The Next Generation of Seasonal Outlooks
Improving Drought Forecasts: The Next Generation of Seasonal Outlooks Douglas Le Comte, CPC Douglas.lecomte@noaa.gov Outline Review of how the current Drought Outlooks are made Sample experimental products
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 November 2015
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 November 2015 Outline Summary Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
A Near Real Time Drought Monitoring Capability
A Near Real Time Drought Monitoring Capability Kingtse Mo, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wayne Higgins and The NCEP Drought Monitoring Team Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA An Experimental Drought Early Warning
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. June 22, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING June 22, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: Ocean Warmth Headed into Summer Climate Forecast Basics Climate
Improving Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction at NOAA
Improving Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction at NOAA Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Weather Service NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services July 13, 2016 Congressional Briefing Value
Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for May - October 2015
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for May - October 2015 BUSAN, 23 April 2015 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for May - October 2015 (MJJASO) at the APEC Climate Center
N C E P. Ensemble Systems within the NOAA Operational Modeling Suite. William. M. Lapenta Acting Director Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP
US THORPE 19 Sept 2012 1 N C E P Ensemble Systems within the NOAA Operational Modeling Suite William. M. Lapenta Acting Director Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP Data Assimilation, Modeling
Recent Developments in Climate Information Services at JMA. Koichi Kurihara Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency
Recent Developments in Climate Information Services at JMA Koichi Kurihara Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency 1 Topics 1. Diagnosis of the Northern Hemispheric circulation in December
Did we see the 2011 summer heat wave coming?
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39,, doi:10.1029/2012gl051383, 2012 Did we see the 2011 summer heat wave coming? Lifeng Luo 1 and Yan Zhang 2 Received 16 February 2012; revised 15 March 2012; accepted
Atmospheric circulation analysis for seasonal forecasting
Training Seminar on Application of Seasonal Forecast GPV Data to Seasonal Forecast Products 18 21 January 2011 Tokyo, Japan Atmospheric circulation analysis for seasonal forecasting Shotaro Tanaka Climate
Operational Ocean and Climate Modeling at NCEP
Operational Ocean and Climate Modeling at NCEP 5 th Annual CoRP Science Symposium Corvallis, OR Aug. 12-13, 2008 Hua-Lu Pan and Hendrik Tolman Environmental Modeling Center NCEP 1.7B Obs/Day Satellites
Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019
Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019 Date issued: Aug 31, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral phase and is still expected to rise towards an
Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018 Date issued: Mar 23, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to weaken from a moderate La Niña phase to a neutral phase through
Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Date issued: Jun 25, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in a neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño phase through
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. July 20, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING July 20, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: 2018 Wildfire Season Update Climate Forecast Basics Climate
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX):A multi-model subseasonal prediction experiment
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX):A multi-model subseasonal prediction experiment --Manuscript Draft-- Manuscript Number: Full Title: Article Type: Corresponding
The Experimental Regional Seasonal Ensemble Forecasting at NCEP
The Experimental Regional Seasonal Ensemble Forecasting at NCEP Hann-Ming Henry Juang Environment Modeling Center, NCEP, Washington, DC Jun Wang SAIC contractor under NCEP/EMC John Roads Experimental Climate
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño