ECMWF 10 th workshop on Meteorological Operational Systems
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1 ECMWF 10 th workshop on Meteorological Operational Systems 18th November 2005 Crown copyright 2004 Page 1
2 Monthly range prediction products: Post-processing methods and verification Bernd Becker, Richard Graham. Met Office monthly forecast suite UK Products from the Monthly Outlook Standard Verification System Crown copyright 2004 Page 2
3 Monthly Forecasting System Coupled ocean-atmosphere integrations: a 51-member ensemble is integrated for 32 days every week. Atmospheric component: IFS with the latest operational cycle 29r3 and with a TL159L40 resolution (320 * 161) Oceanic component: HOPE (from Max Plank Institute) with a zonal resolution of 1.4 degrees and 29 vertical levels Coupling: OASIS (CERFACS). Coupling every ocean time step (1 hour) Perturbations: Atmosphere: Singular vectors + stochastic physics Ocean: SST perturbations in the initial conditions + wind stress perturbations during data assimilation. Hindcast statistics: 5-member ensemble integrated over 32 days during the past 12 years. Representing a 60-member ensemble. Running every week Crown copyright 2004 Page 3
4 Post processing 1. Data Volume reduction Derive properties of the PDF 2. Interpolation to 10 UK climate regions Down scaling 3. Calibration with historical data Bias correction 4. Interpretation of the histogram Deterministic terce/quint 5. Mapping Deterministic value Crown copyright 2004 Page 4
5 Properties of quintile PDF Forecast Hind cast HC min qb1 qb 2 qb 3 qb 4 HC max FXmin FXmean qm1 qm2 qm3 qm4 well below below qm5 FXmax normal above well above Wk1 : d 5 11 Wk2 : d Wk3&4 : d FORMOST global PDF data Crown copyright 2004 Page 5
6 Post Processing 2. Interpolation (UK) Bilinear interpolation to representative points Averaged station data from 1971 to 2000 build the climatology 3. Calibration (UK) Quint boundaries are derived And swapped with the hindcast quint boundaries. Takes care of -Bias correction of the category boundaries -Bias in the mean Crown copyright 2004 Page 6
7 Post Processing 4. Interpretation of the PDF Many customers want deterministic answer. How to deduce deterministic Forecast information from the PDF? 1. Ensemble mean, but! If Spread > set threshold and most probable quint 5% more likely than 2 nd most probable 2. Use Mode and Issue Message: uncertain forecast, low confidence. Crown copyright 2004 Page 7
8 Post Processing 5. Mapping Low spread, Ensemble mean a good best estimate, high confidence. High Spread, ensemble mean misleading in many cases. High Spread, delta probability > 5%. Most probable category best estimate. To derive a deterministic Temperature or Precipitation value, the predicted quintile/tercile category average value is mapped onto the Calibration PDF. Crown copyright 2004 Page 8
9 Example UK day temperature forecast for 10 climate districts Probability forecast Deterministic forecast (based on most probable category or ensemble mean) T P Verification A mild west to south-westerly airflow will dominate the weather during this period, and becoming rather wet at times... (Forecast text issued 13 th Oct for week of Oct) Crown copyright 2004 Page 9
10 Example global capability tercile probability forecast Europe, days12-18 P(abv) Verification (ECMWF operations) P(avg) P(blw) T mean Precip Crown copyright 2004 Page 10
11 WK 3&4 WK 2 WK 1 Obs. T anom July Crown copyright 2004 Page 11
12 WK 3&4 WK 2 WK 1 Obs. T anom July Crown copyright 2004 Page 12
13 Recap: Post processing and Products Data Volume reduction before transfer to The Met Office: Calculate 1. Tercile/Quintile boundaries from the Hindcast ensemble 2. Tercile/Quintile populations from the Forecast ensemble 3. Maximum, Mean and Minimum from Forecast and from Hindcast 4. Forecast Tercile/Quintile averages 5. Average in time to week 1, 2 and 3&4. UK Forecast: 1. Interpolation to points representing UK climate regions 2. Calibration with historical UK climate region observations 3. Interpretation of the Histogram, Ensemble mean or Mode in cases with large spread, derive deterministic forecast tercile/quintile 4. Mapping Tercile/Quintile average onto calibration PDF to derive deterministic forecast value Global Forecast: 1. Tercile/Quintile probabilities 2. Calibrate by overlaying Tercile/Quintile boundaries derived from ERA40 data Crown copyright 2004 Page 13
14 Verification May October 2005 Focus on periods beyond the medium range, days forecast/ observation pairs of Temperature and Precipitation Verifying Observations: Station observations averaged in each UK climate region Remember: Weekly averages 5 class histogram Wk1 : d 5 11 Wk2 : d Wk3&4 : d Crown copyright 2004 Page 14
15 TMO UK Forecast Benchmark Compare the following forecasts: Based on past experience Climate Mean Climate Histogram Persistence Dynamical ensemble forecasts Most Probable Quintile category 5 class histogram With respect to skill scores. Scores Zero by design Scores Zero by design Crown copyright 2004 Page 15
16 Skill scores..are derived from a 5 * 5 * 10 contingency table. Each cell records matching: Observation / Forecast category and the probability with that the category was predicted T mean, days Scores are calculated per category, figures in graph below are averaged over 5 categories. 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0-0,1-0,2-0,3 CSI Q PSS HSS GS BSS ROC Persitence MPQ 5 class Histogram CSI: critical success index Q: odds ratio, Yule s Q. PSS: Peirce Skill Score HSS: Heidke Skill Score GS: Gerrity skill Score BSS: Brier skill Score ROC: Area under the ROC curve Crown copyright 2004 Page 16
17 Skill scores..are derived from a 5 * 5 * 10 contingency table. Each cell records matching: Observation / Forecast category and the probability with that the category was predicted T mean, days Scores are calculated per category, figures in graph below are averaged over 5 categories. 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0-0,1-0,2-0,3 CSI Q PSS HSS GS BSS ROC Persitence MPQ 5 class Histogram CSI: critical success index Q: odds ratio, Yule s Q. PSS: Peirce Skill Score HSS: Heidke Skill Score GS: Gerrity skill Score BSS: Brier skill Score ROC: Area under the ROC curve Crown copyright 2004 Page 17
18 Gerrity Scores for monthly-range forecasts for the UK districts: 5 categories Total of 115 forecasts 0,4 Persistence (P) 0,4 Most probable (M) quintile category 0,3 0,3 0,2 0,2 0,1 0,1 0-0,1 T mean wk 1 wk 2 wk 3&4 Precipitation 0-0,1 T mean wk 1 wk 2 wk 3&4 Precipitation Persistence: conditions will be the same as observed in period prior to forecast Crown copyright 2004 Page 18
19 Deterministic Skill: UK Gerrity Skill Score Blues: Persistence (P) Greens: Most probable (M) quintile category 0,5 0,4 Temperature 0,5 0,4 Temperature 0,3 0,3 0,2 0,1 0-0,1 P 0,2 wk1 P 0,1 wk2 P3 wk3&4 0-0,1-0,2 MAM JJA SON DJF ALL 0,5 Precipitation 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0-0,1-0,2 MAM JJA SON DJF ALL -0,2 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0-0,1-0,2 MAM JJA SON DJF ALL Precipitation MAM JJA SON DJF ALL Week 1 Week 2 Week 3&4 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3&4 Crown copyright 2004 Page 19
20 Verification May October forecast/ observation pairs of Temperature and Precipitation Verifying Observations: ECMWF short range (12-36 hrs) forecasts over the period Global Forecasts: Relative Operating Characteristics for quintile forecast Reliability Diagram Brier skill score decomposition Crown copyright 2004 Page 20
21 ROC Map ROC Score for Temperature well below normal 19 to 32 days ahead Crown copyright 2004 Page 21
22 Monthly Verification (UK): T mean ROC & reliability, all seasons, days POD=H/(H+M) HR=H/(H+FA) Based on 115 operational forecasts (all seasons) Verification data = ECMWF T outer Quintiles better than inner Crown copyright 2004 Page 22
23 Monthly Verification (UK): Precip ROC & reliability, all seasons, days POD=H/(H+M) HR=H/(H+FA) POFD=FA/(FA+CR) Crown copyright 2004 Page 23
24 Holiday planner for November 2005 Wind Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3&4 Crown copyright 2004 Page 24
25 Future Work: port Standardised Verification system (SVS) to R, compare with other verification packages More streamlined More communication More efficient Exploit daily data: Environmental Stress index (Heat stress) Monsoon onset Period statistics, days above a threshold Description of the histogram/pdf in an analytical form, derived from Mean, Standard Deviation, Skewness and Kurtosis More complete description of the PDF Less data to carry around Crown copyright 2004 Page 25
26 Conclusion The monthly forecasts model runs are produced at ECMWF, products are derived at the Met Office, operationally. Standardised Verification system (SVS) for Long-range Forecasts (LRF) is taking shape. Forecasts for day are as useful as climatology. Predictions of Quintile 1 and 5 are more skilful than of Quintiles 2 to 4 Europe is a difficult region to predict at long time range. The Monthly Outlook is a powerful tool to provide forecast guidance up to a month ahead in many areas. Crown copyright 2004 Page 26
27 THANK YOU! Richard Graham Margaret Gordon Andrew Colman Crown copyright 2004 Page 27
28 The Met Office We are one of the world's leading providers of environmental and weather-related services. Our solutions and services meet the needs of many communities of interest from the general public, government and schools, to civil aviation and almost every industry sector around the world. Crown copyright 2004 Page 28
29 Met Office Winter forecast /monthly_forecasts/headline.html Crown copyright 2004 Page 29
30 Grid point diagnostics Properties of a contingency table per grid point wan 5 QUINT 4 n 3 bn 2 wbn H M FA CR % probability Crown copyright 2004 Page Stratify by magnitude of the probability at each grid point Hit : Q =Qobs & P(Q)>= Pthresh Miss: Q =Qobs & P(Q) < Pthresh False Alarm: Q!= Qobs & P(Q)>= Pthresh Correct rejection: Q!=Qobs & P(Q)<Pthresh POD = H / (H+M) conditioned on Observations POFD=FA / (FA+CR) Hit Rate = H / (H+FA) conditioned on Forecasts
31 New ecgate 1:15 0:13 (1:00 +/- 10 min.) 0:14 0:11 0:13 0:30 0:08 0:54 0:07 Foraver 1 and 2 is followed by: forbounds, forpops and fortables, and emean is followed by: forfsssi. The 2 strands are run in parallel. Old ecgate1 3:30 3:35 0:13 Crown copyright 2004 Page 31
32 Deterministic Skill MAM JJA SON DJF ALL P1 M1 P2 M2 P3 M3 Gerrity Skill Score: Blues: Persistence (P) Greens: Most probable (M) Quintile category P1 M1 P2 M2 P3 M3-0.3 MAM JJA SON DJF ALL Crown copyright 2004 Page 32
33 Most probable Category for September 2005 wk 1 wk 2 wk 3&4 Forecast Verification Crown copyright 2004 Page 33
34 FORMOST Verification Week 2 T Quint boundaries Observed Deterministic Crown copyright 2004 Page 34
35 FORMOST Verification Week 2, UK average t Mean error 3 2 Tmean Precipit Green: Ensemble mean Yellow: Persistence Black: Forecast 0 Perci EM Dfx Crown copyright 2004 Page 35 1 p
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