The Latest Science of Seasonal Climate Forecasting
|
|
|
- Adam Casey
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 The Latest Science of Seasonal Climate Forecasting Emily Wallace Met Office 7 th June 2018 Research and Innovation Program under Grant Agreement
2 Background: - Why are they useful? - What do we mean by seasonal climate forecasting? - How is it possible? - How do we know if they are any good? - What do existing long-range forecasts look like for end-users? - How are they used? - What else could be done? How will SECLI-FIRM use the latest science of seasonal climate forecasting Research and Innovation Program under
3 Background Research and Innovation Program under Grant Agreement
4 If your business can use historical weather data to make better decisions, make decisions several weeks or months ahead, and hedge decisions, or adjust them as time evolves seasonal climate forecasts could increase confidence, reduce your costs, reduce your risk Research and Innovation Program under
5 Seasonal 1 month 6 months ahead At least 1 month at a time Properties of weather over an extended period: e.g. average summer temperature, number of windy days in autumn climate Description of likelihood of climate outcome (probabilistic) forecasting Research and Innovation Program under
6 chaos Relevance of initial conditions: Predictability Atmosphere days Crown copyright Met Office Research and Innovation Program under
7 E.g. Sea surface temperatures soil moisture tropical precipitation sea ice Predictable influences chaos Relevance of initial conditions: Predictability Ocean Sea ice Land Several influences can act at the same time! months Crown copyright Met Office Research and Innovation Program under
8 1) Estimate initial estate of earth system, 2) feed it into a model and then, 3) run the model forward in time Compared to short-range forecasting: a) More complex model (ocean, landsurface, sea-ice) b) More components to initialize c) Need to run the model for longer Crown copyright Met Office Research and Innovation Program under
9 How do we know it s any good? - Skill assessment Scaife et al, 2014 Research and Innovation Program under
10 How do we know it s any good? - Value assessment! Lower cost ($) Departure date Higher cost ($$$) Correct identification of calm weather windows can save many thousands of dollars per day in unplanned downtime, allowing large savings if decisions are made as early as possible Steele et al. (2017), OTC, pp. 1-8; Steele et al. (2018), OTC, pp. 1-8; Research and Innovation Program under
11 Event forecast Action taken No event forecast No action taken Event observed Hit COST + REDUCED LOSS Miss LOSS No event observed False alarm COST Correct rejection Steele et al. (2017), OTC, pp. 1-8; Steele et al. (2018), OTC, pp. 1-8; Alessandri et al., 2016 Under Revision Research and Innovation Program under
12 Tailored industry focussed Generic meteorological Research and Innovation Program under
13 How will SECLI-FIRM use latest science of seasonal climate forecasting Research and Innovation Program under Grant Agreement
14 Work package 2: FORECASTS PROCESSING Grand Multi-model ensemble Optimization of climate prediction performance Research and Innovation Program under
15 FORECASTS PROCESSING UNSEEN Research and Innovation Program under
16 Questions and answers Research and Innovation Program under
Mitigating risk through weather and climate intelligence to support business relevant decision making
Mitigating risk through weather and climate intelligence to support business relevant decision making Caroline Acton, Nicolas Fournier, Paul Newell, Jill Dixon 26 th May 2017 Contents Introduction Decisions
S e a s o n a l F o r e c a s t i n g f o r t h e E u r o p e a n e n e r g y s e c t o r
S e a s o n a l F o r e c a s t i n g f o r t h e E u r o p e a n e n e r g y s e c t o r C3S European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM) Webinar 18 th Oct 2017 Philip Bett, Met Office Hadley Centre S e a s
How advances in atmospheric modelling are used for improved flood forecasting. Dr Michaela Bray Cardiff University
How advances in atmospheric modelling are used for improved flood forecasting Dr Michaela Bray Cardiff University Overview of current short term rainfall forecasting Advancements and on going research
The ECMWF Extended range forecasts
The ECMWF Extended range forecasts Laura.Ferranti@ecmwf.int ECMWF, Reading, U.K. Slide 1 TC January 2014 Slide 1 The operational forecasting system l High resolution forecast: twice per day 16 km 91-level,
Skilful seasonal predictions for the European Energy Industry
Skilful seasonal predictions for the European Energy Industry Hazel Thornton, Philip Bett, Robin Clark, Adam Scaife, Brian Hoskins, David Brayshaw WGSIP, 10/10/2017 Outline Energy industry and climate
Managing the risk of agricultural drought in Africa
Managing the risk of agricultural drought in Africa Emily Black, Dagmawi Asfaw, Matt Brown, Caroline Dunning, Fred Otu-Larbi, Tristan Quaife University of Reading, NCAS-Climate, NCEO, Ghana Meteorological
Seasonal to decadal climate prediction: filling the gap between weather forecasts and climate projections
Seasonal to decadal climate prediction: filling the gap between weather forecasts and climate projections Doug Smith Walter Orr Roberts memorial lecture, 9 th June 2015 Contents Motivation Practical issues
Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018 Date issued: May 28, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has now moved into the neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño
Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for May - October 2015
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for May - October 2015 BUSAN, 23 April 2015 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for May - October 2015 (MJJASO) at the APEC Climate Center
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. July 20, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING July 20, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: 2018 Wildfire Season Update Climate Forecast Basics Climate
Behind the Climate Prediction Center s Extended and Long Range Outlooks Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
Behind the Climate Prediction Center s Extended and Long Range Outlooks Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 2012 Outline Mission Extended Range Outlooks (6-10/8-14)
Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Date issued: Jun 25, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in a neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño phase through
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. June 22, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING June 22, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: Ocean Warmth Headed into Summer Climate Forecast Basics Climate
Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for July December 2017
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for July December 2017 BUSAN, 26 June 2017 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for July December 2017 (JASOND) at the APEC Climate Center
ECMWF 10 th workshop on Meteorological Operational Systems
ECMWF 10 th workshop on Meteorological Operational Systems 18th November 2005 Crown copyright 2004 Page 1 Monthly range prediction products: Post-processing methods and verification Bernd Becker, Richard
Model error and seasonal forecasting
Model error and seasonal forecasting Antje Weisheimer European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF, Reading, UK with thanks to Paco Doblas-Reyes and Tim Palmer Model error and model uncertainty
Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for December 2017 May 2018
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for December 2017 May 2018 BUSAN, 24 November 2017 The synthesis of the latest model forecasts for December 2017 to May 2018 (DJFMAM) from the
El Niño 2015/2016 Impact Analysis Monthly Outlook February 2016
El Niño 2015/2016 Impact Analysis Monthly Outlook February 2016 Linda Hirons, Nicolas Klingaman This report has been produced by University of Reading for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the
Drought forecasting methods Blaz Kurnik DESERT Action JRC
Ljubljana on 24 September 2009 1 st DMCSEE JRC Workshop on Drought Monitoring 1 Drought forecasting methods Blaz Kurnik DESERT Action JRC Motivations for drought forecasting Ljubljana on 24 September 2009
Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018 Date issued: Mar 23, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to weaken from a moderate La Niña phase to a neutral phase through
Introduction to Data Assimilation
Introduction to Data Assimilation Alan O Neill Data Assimilation Research Centre University of Reading What is data assimilation? Data assimilation is the technique whereby observational data are combined
Global Challenges - Partnering with Service Providers. World Meteorological Organization. J. Lengoasa WMO Deputy Secretary-General
WMO World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Global Challenges - Partnering with Service Providers J. Lengoasa WMO Deputy Secretary-General jlengoasa@wmo.int http://www.wmo.int/pages/gfcs/gfcs_en.html
Weather Analysis and Forecasting
Weather Analysis and Forecasting An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society (Adopted by AMS Council on 25 March 2015) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88 This Information Statement describes
Operational event attribution
Operational event attribution Peter Stott, NCAR, 26 January, 2009 August 2003 Events July 2007 January 2009 January 2009 Is global warming slowing down? Arctic Sea Ice Climatesafety.org climatesafety.org
Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019
Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019 Date issued: Aug 31, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral phase and is still expected to rise towards an
Understanding Weather and Climate Risk. Matthew Perry Sharing an Uncertain World Conference The Geological Society, 13 July 2017
Understanding Weather and Climate Risk Matthew Perry Sharing an Uncertain World Conference The Geological Society, 13 July 2017 What is risk in a weather and climate context? Hazard: something with the
SEASONAL FORECAST PORTOFOLIO MODELING
SEASONAL FORECAST SEASONAL FORECAST PORTOFOLIO MODELING Special Applications EWEA Wind Power Forecasting Workshop 2015 Wind resource seasonal forecast outcomes from SPECS project Gil Lizcano & Abel Tortosa
Relative importance of the tropics, internal variability, and Arctic amplification on midlatitude climate and weather
Relative importance of the tropics, internal variability, and Arctic amplification on midlatitude climate and weather Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center College Park, Maryland, USA Workshop on Arctic
ECMWF products to represent, quantify and communicate forecast uncertainty
ECMWF products to represent, quantify and communicate forecast uncertainty Using ECMWF s Forecasts, 2015 David Richardson Head of Evaluation, Forecast Department David.Richardson@ecmwf.int ECMWF June 12,
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy Today s Outline Feature of the month: Southeast Drought Update Climate Forecast Basics
Risk in Climate Models Dr. Dave Stainforth. Risk Management and Climate Change The Law Society 14 th January 2014
Risk in Climate Models Dr. Dave Stainforth Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, and Centre for the Analysis of Timeseries, London School of Economics. Risk Management and
March Regional Climate Modeling in Seasonal Climate Prediction: Advances and Future Directions
1934-2 Fourth ICTP Workshop on the Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models: Applying RCMs to Developing Nations in Support of Climate Change Assessment and Extended-Range Prediction 3-14 March 2008 Regional
Seasonal forecasting as a stepping stone to climate adaptation in marine fisheries and aquaculture
Seasonal forecasting as a stepping stone to climate adaptation in marine fisheries and aquaculture Alistair Hobday Paige Eveson Jason Hartog Claire Spillman Projected changes (e.g. distribution) 11 species
Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for August 2015 January 2016
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for August 2015 January 2016 BUSAN, 24 July 2015 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for August 2015 January 2016 (ASONDJ) at the APEC Climate
Application and verification of ECMWF products 2016
Application and verification of ECMWF products 2016 Icelandic Meteorological Office (www.vedur.is) Bolli Pálmason and Guðrún Nína Petersen 1. Summary of major highlights Medium range weather forecasts
Applications of Data Assimilation in Earth System Science. Alan O Neill University of Reading, UK
Applications of Data Assimilation in Earth System Science Alan O Neill University of Reading, UK NCEO Early Career Science Conference 16th 18th April 2012 Introduction to data assimilation Page 2 of 20
Water Scarcity Situation Report 14 th September 2018
Water Scarcity Situation Report 14 th September 2018 HEADLINE Parts of North East Scotland are still at Significant Scarcity due to evidence of ecological impacts resulting from an exceptionally prolonged
GPC Exeter forecast for winter Crown copyright Met Office
GPC Exeter forecast for winter 2015-2016 Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5) ensemble prediction system the source for Met Office monthly and seasonal forecasts uses a coupled model (atmosphere
Evaluating Forecast Quality
Evaluating Forecast Quality Simon J. Mason International Research Institute for Climate Prediction Questions How do we decide whether a forecast was correct? How do we decide whether a set of forecasts
Seasonal Predictions for South Caucasus and Armenia
Seasonal Predictions for South Caucasus and Armenia Anahit Hovsepyan Zagreb, 11-12 June 2008 SEASONAL PREDICTIONS for the South Caucasus There is a notable increase of interest of population and governing
Seasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016
Seasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016 Date: Dec 17, 2015 1. Advisory Most models are showing the continuation of a strong El-Niño episode towards the latesummer season with the expectation to start
The ENSEMBLES Project
The ENSEMBLES Project Providing ensemble-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts by Dr. Chris Hewitt Abstract The main objective of the ENSEMBLES project is to provide probabilistic estimates
The benefits and developments in ensemble wind forecasting
The benefits and developments in ensemble wind forecasting Erik Andersson Slide 1 ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Slide 1 ECMWF s global forecasting system High resolution forecast
CAS & CAeM Aviation Research and Demonstration Project Paris-CDG airport
World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO CAS & CAeM Aviation Research and Demonstration Project Paris-CDG airport WMO www.wmo.int Paris-CDG airport Mid-latitude
Speedwell Weather. Topics: Setting up a weather desk (a shopping list)
Speedwell Weather Topics: Setting up a weather desk (a shopping list) As Presented to the Weather Risk Management Association, Dusseldorf September 2011 RWE Trading Floor (Europe's largest energy trading
Weather and climate outlooks for crop estimates
Weather and climate outlooks for crop estimates CELC meeting 2016-04-21 ARC ISCW Observed weather data Modeled weather data Short-range forecasts Seasonal forecasts Climate change scenario data Introduction
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: Autumn sea ice near Alaska Climate Forecast Basics Climate
Improving Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction at NOAA
Improving Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction at NOAA Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Weather Service NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services July 13, 2016 Congressional Briefing Value
How to shape future met-services: a seamless perspective
How to shape future met-services: a seamless perspective Paolo Ruti, Chief World Weather Research Division Sarah Jones, Chair Scientific Steering Committee Improving the skill big resources ECMWF s forecast
Application and verification of the ECMWF products Report 2007
Application and verification of the ECMWF products Report 2007 National Meteorological Administration Romania 1. Summary of major highlights The medium range forecast activity within the National Meteorological
4.3.2 Configuration. 4.3 Ensemble Prediction System Introduction
4.3 Ensemble Prediction System 4.3.1 Introduction JMA launched its operational ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) for one-month forecasting, one-week forecasting, and seasonal forecasting in March of 1996,
Baseline Climatology. Dave Parker ADD PRESENTATION TITLE HERE (GO TO: VIEW / MASTER / SLIDE MASTER TO AMEND) ADD PRESENTER S NAME HERE / ADD DATE HERE
Baseline Climatology Dave Parker ADD PRESENTATION TITLE HERE (GO TO: VIEW / MASTER / SLIDE MASTER TO AMEND) ADD PRESENTER S NAME HERE / ADD DATE HERE Copyright EDF Energy. All rights reserved. Introduction
Global Flood Awareness System GloFAS
Global Flood Awareness System GloFAS Ervin Zsoter with the help of the whole EFAS/GloFAS team Ervin.Zsoter@ecmwf.int 1 Reading, 8-9 May 2018 What is GloFAS? Global-scale ensemble-based flood forecasting
Forecast system development: what next?
Forecast system development: what next? Doug Smith, Adam Scaife, Nick Dunstone, Leon Hermanson, Rosie Eade, Vikki Thompson, Martin Andrews, Jeff Knight, Craig MacLachlan, and many others Improved models
A simple method for seamless verification applied to precipitation hindcasts from two global models
A simple method for seamless verification applied to precipitation hindcasts from two global models Matthew Wheeler 1, Hongyan Zhu 1, Adam Sobel 2, Debra Hudson 1 and Frederic Vitart 3 1 Bureau of Meteorology,
Enhancing Weather Information with Probability Forecasts. An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society
Enhancing Weather Information with Probability Forecasts An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society (Adopted by AMS Council on 12 May 2008) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89 Summary This
NIWA Outlook: March-May 2015
March May 2015 Issued: 27 February 2015 Hold mouse over links and press ctrl + left click to jump to the information you require: Overview Regional predictions for the next three months: Northland, Auckland,
Monthly probabilistic drought forecasting using the ECMWF Ensemble system
Monthly probabilistic drought forecasting using the ECMWF Ensemble system Christophe Lavaysse(1) J. Vogt(1), F. Pappenberger(2) and P. Barbosa(1) (1) European Commission (JRC-IES), Ispra Italy (2) ECMWF,
Climate Outlook for March August 2017
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for March August 2017 BUSAN, 24 February 2017 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for March to August 2017 (MAMJJA) at the APEC Climate Center (APCC), located
A Scientific Challenge for Copernicus Climate Change Services: EUCPXX. Tim Palmer Oxford
A Scientific Challenge for Copernicus Climate Change Services: EUCPXX Tim Palmer Oxford Aspects of my worldline 1. EU Framework Programme PROVOST, DEMETER EUROSIP 2. Committee on Climate Change Adaptation
Climate Science to Inform Climate Choices. Julia Slingo, Met Office Chief Scientist
Climate Science to Inform Climate Choices Julia Slingo, Met Office Chief Scientist Taking the planet into uncharted territory Impacts of climate change will be felt most profoundly through hazardous weather
Dougherty County School System 6 th Grade Earth Science Curriculum Matrix
First Nine Weeks S6E5. Students will investigate the scientific view of how the earth s surface is formed. Week Number Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Standard(s) Scientific Method, Science
C o p e r n i c u s E m e r g e n c y M a n a g e m e n t S e r v i c e f o r e c a s t i n g f l o o d s
C o p e r n i c u s E m e r g e n c y M a n a g e m e n t S e r v i c e f o r e c a s t i n g f l o o d s Copernicus & Copernicus Services Copernicus EU Copernicus EU Copernicus EU www.copernicus.eu W
August Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2012
August Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2012 Issued: 6 th August 2012 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK
Improving Drought Forecasts: The Next Generation of Seasonal Outlooks
Improving Drought Forecasts: The Next Generation of Seasonal Outlooks Douglas Le Comte, CPC Douglas.lecomte@noaa.gov Outline Review of how the current Drought Outlooks are made Sample experimental products
Predicting wildfire ignitions, escapes, and large fire activity using Predictive Service s 7-Day Fire Potential Outlook in the western USA
http://dx.doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_135 Chapter 4 - Fire Risk Assessment and Climate Change Predicting wildfire ignitions, escapes, and large fire activity using Predictive Service s 7-Day Fire
The National Weather Service of the Future: Building a Weather-Ready Nation
The of the Future: Building a Weather-Ready Nation Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services NCEP Production Suite Review December 2, 2014 Outline Building a Weather-Ready
Climate Science, Projections and BoM Capability
Climate Science, Projections and BoM Capability Climate Information Program: David Jones (Manager of Climate Monitoring and Prediction) & Leading in Climate Data, Monitoring, Prediction and Advice Perry
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY Building an Operational National Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting Service for Australia progress to-date and future plans Dr Narendra Kumar Tuteja Manager Extended Hydrological Prediction
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic NiZo Index
Verification and performance measures of Meteorological Services to Air Traffic Management (MSTA)
Verification and performance measures of Meteorological Services to Air Traffic Management (MSTA) Background Information on the accuracy, reliability and relevance of products is provided in terms of verification
Attributing climate variations: Part of an information system for the future. Kevin E Trenberth NCAR
Attributing climate variations: Part of an information system for the future Kevin E Trenberth NCAR The climate is changing: It is likely to continue to change! Regardless of the success of mitigation
TAMSAT: LONG-TERM RAINFALL MONITORING ACROSS AFRICA
TAMSAT: LONG-TERM RAINFALL MONITORING ACROSS AFRICA Ross Maidment, Emily Black, Matthew Young and Dagmawi Asfaw TAMSAT, University of Reading Helen Greatrex IRI, Columbia University 13 th EUMETSAT User
Weather Outlook 2016: Cycles and Patterns Influencing Our Growing Season
Weather Outlook 2016: Cycles and Patterns Influencing Our Growing Season Leon F. Osborne Chester Fritz Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Sciences University of North Dakota Cycle of El Niño Events
Verification of ECMWF products at the Finnish Meteorological Institute
Verification of ECMWF products at the Finnish Meteorological Institute by Juha Kilpinen, Pertti Nurmi, Petra Roiha and Martti Heikinheimo 1. Summary of major highlights A new verification system became
Seasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018 Date issued: Jan 26, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain in a weak La Niña phase through to early autumn (Feb-Mar-Apr).
Seasonal forecasting of climate anomalies for agriculture in Italy: the TEMPIO Project
Seasonal forecasting of climate anomalies for agriculture in Italy: the TEMPIO Project M. Baldi(*), S. Esposito(**), E. Di Giuseppe (**), M. Pasqui(*), G. Maracchi(*) and D. Vento (**) * CNR IBIMET **
DRIVING ROI. The Business Case for Advanced Weather Solutions for the Energy Market
DRIVING ROI The Business Case for Advanced Weather Solutions for the Energy Market Table of Contents Energy Trading Challenges 3 Skill 4 Speed 5 Precision 6 Key ROI Findings 7 About The Weather Company
Seamless weather and climate for security planning
Seamless weather and climate for security planning Kirsty Lewis, Principal Climate Change Consultant, Met Office Hadley Centre 28 June 2010 Global Climate Models Mitigation timescale changes could be avoided
From regional weather to global climate: Progress and Challenges in improving models
From regional weather to global climate: Progress and Challenges in improving models Christian Jakob, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia! Special
Development of a Tropical Ecological Forecasting Strategy for ENSO Based on the ACME Modeling Framework
Development of a Tropical Ecological Forecasting Strategy for ENSO Based on the ACME Modeling Framework Forrest M. Hoffman 1,2, Min Xu 1, Nathaniel Collier 1, Chonggang Xu 3, Bradley Christoffersen 3,
Agrometeorological activities in RHMSS
Republic of Serbia Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia Agrometeorological activities in RHMSS Department for applied climatology and agrometeorology www.hidmet.gov.rs Meteorological Observing
Who cares about S2S research to improve forecasts?
Who cares about S2S research to improve forecasts? Ali Stevens, Annarita Mariotti, Dan Barrie, Emily Read Climate Program Office Contact: alison.stevens@noaa.gov 16th Annual CPASW May 22-24, 2018 **Any
The CMC Monthly Forecasting System
The CMC Monthly Forecasting System Hai Lin Meteorological Research Division RPN seminar May 20, 2011 Acknowledgements Support and help from many people Gilbert Brunet, Bernard Dugas, Juan-Sebastian Fontecilla,
AMPS Update June 2017
AMPS Update June 2017 Kevin W. Manning Jordan G. Powers Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO 12th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate
Advances in weather and climate science
Advances in weather and climate science Second ICAO Global Air Navigation Industry Symposium (GANIS/2) 11 to 13 December 2017, Montreal, Canada GREG BROCK Scientific Officer Aeronautical Meteorology Division
Update on Climate Science. Professor Richard Betts, Met Office
Update on Climate Science Professor Richard Betts, Met Office The science of climate change Crown copyright Met Office Prof Richard Betts Head of Climate Impacts Research Crown copyright Met Office Observing
Monthly overview. Rainfall
Monthly overview 1-10 August 2018 The month started off with light showers over the Western Cape. A large cold front made landfall around the 5th of the month. This front was responsible for good rainfall
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
Appendix 1: UK climate projections
Appendix 1: UK climate projections The UK Climate Projections 2009 provide the most up-to-date estimates of how the climate may change over the next 100 years. They are an invaluable source of information
David G. DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NOAA/NWS
CPC Current Capabilities and Metrics (Part I) and Key Science Challenges to Improving S2S Forecast Skill (Part II) David G. DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NOAA/NWS 1 Outline Disclaimer
Climate predictions for vineyard management
www.bsc.es Bordeaux, April 10-13, 2016 Climate predictions for vineyard management A.Soret 1, N.Gonzalez 1, V.Torralba 1, N.Cortesi 1, M. Turco, F. J.Doblas-Reyes 1, 2 1 Barcelona Supercomputing Center,
Towards a probabilistic hydrological forecasting and data assimilation system. Henrik Madsen DHI, Denmark
Towards a probabilistic hydrological forecasting and data assimilation system Henrik Madsen DHI, Denmark Outline Hydrological forecasting Data assimilation framework Data assimilation experiments Concluding
NOAA S2S Planning. Dave DeWitt Fred Toepfer
NOAA S2S Planning Dave DeWitt Fred Toepfer 1 Agenda 1. Brief synopsis of The Weather Research and Forecasting Act of 2017 2. Report to Congress a. Timeline b. Process c. Document Outline 3. Some Preliminary
NATS 101 Section 13: Lecture 25. Weather Forecasting Part II
NATS 101 Section 13: Lecture 25 Weather Forecasting Part II NWP s First Baby Steps: Mid-Twentieth Century It wasn t until the development of computers in the 1940s and 1950s that NWP could be even attempted.
Climpact2 and regional climate models
Climpact2 and regional climate models David Hein-Griggs Scientific Software Engineer 18 th February 2016 What is the Climate System?? What is the Climate System? Comprises the atmosphere, hydrosphere,
Climate Outlook for October 2017 March 2018
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for October 2017 March 2018 BUSAN, 25 September 2017 The synthesis of the latest model forecasts for October 2017 to March 2018 (ONDJFM) from the APEC Climate Center
STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING OF DAILY PRECIPITATION IN THE ARGENTINE PAMPAS REGION
STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING OF DAILY PRECIPITATION IN THE ARGENTINE PAMPAS REGION Bettolli ML- Penalba OC Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, University of Buenos Aires, Argentina National Council
ATM S 111, Global Warming Climate Models
ATM S 111, Global Warming Climate Models Jennifer Fletcher Day 27: July 29, 2010 Using Climate Models to Build Understanding Often climate models are thought of as forecast tools (what s the climate going