An Update on the 1/12 Global HYCOM Effort
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- Elwin Joseph
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1 An Update on the 1/12 Global HYCOM Effort E.J. Metzger 1, O.M. Smedstad 2, A.J. Wallcraft 1, P.G. Posey 1, and D.S. Franklin 2 1 Naval Research Laboratory 2 Qinetiq North America 2013 Layered Ocean Model Workshop Ann Arbor, MI May 2013
2 Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS) GOFS 3.0: 1/12 32 layer HYCOM/NCODA-MVOI /MODAS synthetics/e-loan ice Pre-operational system that ran on Navy DSRC Cray XT5 First ran in Navy operational queues December 2006 GOFS 3.01: 1/12 32 layer HYCOM/NCODA-3DVAR/MODAS synthetics/e-loan ice Declared operational on 20 March 2013 and running on Navy DSRC IBM idataplex unclassified and classified computers Unscheduled switch from NCODA-MVOI to NCODA-3DVAR GOFS 3.02: as GOFS 3.01 but with NAVGEM replacing NOGAPS Complete by 31 August 2013 GOFS 3.1: 1/12 41 layer HYCOM/NCODA-3DVAR/ISOP synthetics/cice Add nine near surface layers Replace MODAS synthetics with Improved Synthetic Ocean Profiles (ISOP) Two-way coupled HYCOM with Los Alamos CICE model Expect validation completed in 2QFY14 GOFS 3.5: 1/25 41 layer HYCOM/NCODA-3DVAR/ISOP synthetics/cice/tides Increase equatorial (mid-latitude) horizontal resolution to 4.4 (3.5) km Tidal forcing Expect validation completed in 4QFY15 21 May LOM 2
3 NAVOCEANO OPTEST Results 26 month evaluation of realtime GOFS 3.0 (Jan 2011 Feb 2013) Evaluated sonic layer depth (SLD), temperature, salinity, sound speed at various depths: 0, 10, 50, 100, 150, 250, 500m Skill standards: SLD = ±5.0 m temperature = ±0.5 ºC salinity = ±0.2 psu sound speed = ±2.0 m/s Used Autometrics for computation of all statistics 21 May 2013 Courtesy of Frank Bub, NAVOCEANO
4 Figure 7.1.b. Region 01 Western Atlantic 10m Sound Speed, Temperature, Salinity 10m Sound Speed 10m Temperature 10m Salinity Bias: +0.5 m/s +0.10ºC psu CC: RMSD: 1.7 m/s 0.41ºC 0.78 psu Tolerance: 66% (±2.0m/s) 47% (±0.50ºC) 64% (±0.20 psu) 21 May 2013 Courtesy of Frank Bub, NAVOCEANO
5 NAVOCEANO OPTEST Results An excellent good fair poor scoring system was devised, Table 1. Overall, HYCOM scored Excellent two-thirds of the time. Table 2 helps us understand why the surface scores are low HYCOM is not doing well with its SLD forecasts, with 60% of the scores at poor. Table 1. Summary of scores by level (all properties, all regions). Scores: Excellent Good Fair Poor Surface Totals: m Totals: m Totals: Sums: Percent of the total: 67% 18% 5% 10% The 90%, or excellent, result for sound speed might indicate that the 2 m/s standard could be tightened. Having 85-90% of the temperature and salinity scores in the good to excellent range suggests that HYCOM does well forecasting basic ocean properties. HYCOM s forecast skill is good for operational use throughout its forecast period. Table 2. Summary of scores by property (all levels). Scores: Excellent Good Fair Poor SLD: 10% 20% 10% 60% Sound Speed: 90% 10% 0% 0% Temperature: 68% 23% 2% 7% Salinity: 70% 15% 12% 3% Courtesy of Frank Bub, NAVOCEANO
6 Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS) GOFS 3.0: 1/12 32 layer HYCOM/NCODA-MVOI /MODAS synthetics/e-loan ice Pre-operational system that ran on Navy DSRC Cray XT5 First ran in Navy operational queues December 2006 GOFS 3.01: 1/12 32 layer HYCOM/NCODA-3DVAR/MODAS synthetics/e-loan ice Declared operational on 20 March 2013 and running on Navy DSRC IBM idataplex unclassified and classified computers Unscheduled switch from NCODA-MVOI to NCODA-3DVAR GOFS 3.02: as GOFS 3.01 but with NAVGEM replacing NOGAPS Complete by 31 August 2013 GOFS 3.1: 1/12 41 layer HYCOM/NCODA-3DVAR/ISOP synthetics/cice Add nine near surface layers Replace MODAS synthetics with Improved Synthetic Ocean Profiles (ISOP) Two-way coupled HYCOM with Los Alamos CICE model Expect validation completed in 2QFY14 GOFS 3.5: 1/25 41 layer HYCOM/NCODA-3DVAR/ISOP synthetics/cice/tides Increase equatorial (mid-latitude) horizontal resolution to 4.4 (3.5) km Tidal forcing Expect validation completed in 4QFY15 21 May LOM 6
7 NCODA-MVOI vs. 3DVAR Testing Hindcast using NCODA-MVOI is compared against hindcast using NCODA- 3DVAR, both use MODAS synthetics for downward projection of surface data. Error analysis examining temperature as a function of depth over June - August 2010 for several geographic regions. Indian Ocean West Pacific East Pacific West Atlantic East Atlantic Mean error Black curves: NCODA-3DVAR Red curves: NCODA-MVOI 99% confidence interval RMSE As expected, there are not large differences depending upon the NCODA scheme used. N = number of unassimilated profiles used in the analysis NCODA analysis using 3DVAR ran ~35% faster than MVOI
8 NCODA-MVOI vs. 3DVAR Testing Hindcast using NCODA-MVOI is compared against hindcast using NCODA- 3DVAR, both use MODAS synthetics for downward projection of surface data. Error analysis examining sonic layer depth over June - August 2010 for several geographic regions. Mean Error RMSE Gray: NCODA-3DVAR Black: NCODA-MVOI Indian Ocean West Pac. East Pac. West Atl. East Atl. Indian Ocean West Pac. East Pac. West Atl. East Atl.
9 Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS) GOFS 3.0: 1/12 32 layer HYCOM/NCODA-MVOI /MODAS synthetics/e-loan ice Pre-operational system that ran on Navy DSRC Cray XT5 First ran in Navy operational queues December 2006 GOFS 3.01: 1/12 32 layer HYCOM/NCODA-3DVAR/MODAS synthetics/e-loan ice Declared operational on 20 March 2013 and running on Navy DSRC IBM idataplex unclassified and classified computers Unscheduled switch from NCODA-MVOI to NCODA-3DVAR GOFS 3.02: as GOFS 3.01 but with NAVGEM replacing NOGAPS Complete by 31 August 2013 GOFS 3.1: 1/12 41 layer HYCOM/NCODA-3DVAR/ISOP synthetics/cice Add nine near surface layers Replace MODAS synthetics with Improved Synthetic Ocean Profiles (ISOP) Two-way coupled HYCOM with Los Alamos CICE model Expect validation completed in 2QFY14 GOFS 3.5: 1/25 41 layer HYCOM/NCODA-3DVAR/ISOP synthetics/cice/tides Increase equatorial (mid-latitude) horizontal resolution to 4.4 (3.5) km Tidal forcing Expect validation completed in 4QFY15 21 May LOM 9
10 NAVGEM to replace NOGAPS in GOFS NAVGEM = NAVy Global Environmental Model declared operational on 13 Mar 2013 NOGAPS decommission date: 31 Aug 2013 output still being sent to NAVOCEANO and hycom.org Analysis shows the two atmospheric models are different enough to cause different upper ocean model response Two calibrations must be performed on NAVGEM output to assure the underlying ocean model response will be consistent across the decommission time boundary 1. Calibrate NAVGEM winds to scatterometer winds 2. Calibrate heat flux relative to forecast SST error 10
11 NAVGEM minus NOGAPS Mean over 8-31 Dec 2012 Air temperature at 2m ( C) Specific humidity at 2m (x10 3 kg/kg) Surface shortwave radiation (W/m 2 ) Wind speed (m/s)
12 NAVGEM Wind Calibration NWP products are generally weaker than scatterometer winds NOGAPS minus QuikSCAT-scaled NOGAPS 2012 mean m/s 12
13 NAVGEM Wind Calibration Obtaining one year of NAVGEM output: Jun 2012 through May 2013 Hindcast output (Jun 2012 Jan 2013) processed and in HYCOM-ready format Pre-OPS/OPS output (Dec 2012 present) processed daily and in HYCOM-ready format Regression analysis vs. contemporaneous scatterometer data (SSMI/S and WindSAT) Calibrate NAVGEM wind speed 21 May LOM 13
14 NAVGEM Heat Flux Calibration Attribute SST bias to inaccuracies in NWP heat fluxes Heat flux offset currently used in GOFS 3.01 FLASHFlux minus NAVGEM surface shortwave radiation (W/m 2 ) averaged over 8-31 Dec FLASHFlux - NAVGEM differences in shortwave radiation of comparable magnitude to existing heat flux offset used in GOFS 21 May LOM 14
15 NAVGEM Heat Flux Calibration Using calibrated NAVGEM winds, integrate a year-long GOFS hindcast From this hindcast, integrate a series of 5-day forecasts and compare against the 5 day later nowcast as the truth 5 day forecast SST error is used to compute heat flux offset, where 1 C error = 250 W/m 2 heat loss or gain Create a monthly varying heat flux offset GOFS currently uses an annual offset 21 May LOM 15
16 Implications of Switching Atmospheric Forcing With NAVGEM wind and heat flux calibration in place, re-integrate the GOFS hindcast bringing it up to real-time (under NRL control) Perform a subset of validation metrics and compare against NOGAPS-forced GOFS Hand off NAVGEM-forced GOFS to NAVOCEANO Will be a short time period of dual ops Tight time frame to get this done before NOGAPS decommissioning on 31 Aug May LOM 16
17 Implications of Switching Atmospheric Forcing Because of the short time period for calibrating NAVGEM winds against scatterometer data and computing the heat flux offset, this static recalibration should be performed with each additional year of NAVGEM output Additionally, a static recalibration may be needed with every new NAVGEM delivery (T379L50 T425L60 T639L70) 21 May LOM 17
18 Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS) GOFS 3.0: 1/12 32 layer HYCOM/NCODA-MVOI /MODAS synthetics/e-loan ice Pre-operational system that ran on Navy DSRC Cray XT5 First ran in Navy operational queues December 2006 GOFS 3.01: 1/12 32 layer HYCOM/NCODA-3DVAR/MODAS synthetics/e-loan ice Declared operational on 20 March 2013 and running on Navy DSRC IBM idataplex unclassified and classified computers Unscheduled switch from NCODA-MVOI to NCODA-3DVAR GOFS 3.02: as GOFS 3.01 but with NAVGEM replacing NOGAPS Complete by 31 August 2013 GOFS 3.1: 1/12 41 layer HYCOM/NCODA-3DVAR/ISOP synthetics/cice Add nine near surface layers Replace MODAS synthetics with Improved Synthetic Ocean Profiles (ISOP) Two-way coupled HYCOM with Los Alamos CICE model Expect validation completed in 2QFY14 GOFS 3.5: 1/25 41 layer HYCOM/NCODA-3DVAR/ISOP synthetics/cice/tides Increase equatorial (mid-latitude) horizontal resolution to 4.4 (3.5) km Tidal forcing Expect validation completed in 4QFY15 21 May LOM 18
19 HYCOM/CICE Coupling Two-way ocean/ice coupling between HYCOM and CICE with 1 hour coupling frequency 2012 ice thickness (m) from non-assimilative spin-up Currently redefining ice assimilation methodology 21 May
20 Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS) GOFS 3.0: 1/12 32 layer HYCOM/NCODA-MVOI /MODAS synthetics/e-loan ice Pre-operational system that ran on Navy DSRC Cray XT5 First ran in Navy operational queues December 2006 GOFS 3.01: 1/12 32 layer HYCOM/NCODA-3DVAR/MODAS synthetics/e-loan ice Declared operational on 20 March 2013 and running on Navy DSRC IBM idataplex unclassified and classified computers Unscheduled switch from NCODA-MVOI to NCODA-3DVAR GOFS 3.02: as GOFS 3.01 but with NAVGEM replacing NOGAPS Complete by 31 August 2013 GOFS 3.1: 1/12 41 layer HYCOM/NCODA-3DVAR/ISOP synthetics/cice Add nine near surface layers Replace MODAS synthetics with Improved Synthetic Ocean Profiles (ISOP) Two-way coupled HYCOM with Los Alamos CICE model Expect validation completed in 2QFY14 GOFS 3.5: 1/25 41 layer HYCOM/NCODA-3DVAR/ISOP synthetics/cice/tides Increase equatorial (mid-latitude) horizontal resolution to 4.4 (3.5) km Tidal forcing Expect validation completed in 4QFY15 21 May LOM 22
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