ECCC. Environment and Climate Change Canada. Organization contact. Paul Pestieau.

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1 ECCC Environment and Climate Change Canada Organization contact Paul Pestieau Other contact Areas of contribution User-aspects and verification Polar atmospheric processes Oceanic processes Modelling and forecasting Polar-lower latitude linkages Observations Sea ice processes Data assimilation Data archiving Policy-relevant / cultural aspects Societal and/or behavioural aspects

2 Summary Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) maintains a meteorological research and development capacity that provides the department with the research necessary to improve weather and environmental prediction. The meteorological research and development program is the scientific foundation on which the weather and environmental prediction programs of Environment and Climate Change Canada are built. This research leads to Canadians receiving better advanced warning of severe weather events, and helps everyone protect themselves, their families and their property from harm. ECCC s Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) maintains a Meteorological and Environmental Prediction Centre as well as several regional offices to forecast daily weather conditions and warnings, and provide detailed meteorological information to all of Canada; as well as providing Meteorological and Navigation warnings including ice conditions for Arctic METAREAs XVII and XVIII as mandated by IMO; and marine and ice conditions and forecasts to facilitate emergency response in the Canadian Arctic. Description The central element in ECCC Meteorological Research Division (MRD) s YOPP contribution is the development of a new high-resolution coupled environmental prediction system, including components for the atmosphere, land surface, hydrology, snow, sea ice, ocean and waves (CAPS-RIOPS). Coupling the different components together would allow the system to capture the strong nonlinear interactions critical to accurate prediction of high-impact weather events in the north. This system would also include improved sea ice and ocean initial conditions and additional sea ice physical parameterizations required to meet the operational needs of the Canadian Ice Service. In particular, innovative parameterizations for ice strength and better simulation of coastal landfast ice will be included. This will bring expected benefits for local communities and for navigational warnings related to dangerous high pressure events. This coupled system would provide improved information services for high-latitude weather and marine needs (e.g. METAREAs) and would complement the High-Resolution Regional Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) currently running at lower latitudes only. CAPS-RIOPS will have a 48 hour lead time. A global longer term (10 day) sea-ice forecast is also currently running from an operational coupled system (GDPS-GIOPS) and a probabilistic ensemble (EnsGIOPS) of 20 members out to 32 days. Augmented observations from ECCC MSC include an increase in on-ice drifting buoys in Arctic waters (Canadian and central Arctic) as well as radiosondes depending on 2018 budget. ECCC with Canadian partners are looking to deploy Argo profiling floats in the Arctic during the summer of 2017 and Also, ECCC s Science & Technology branch Meteorological Research Division (MRD) has equipped the Iqaluit and Whitehorse super-sites with several observation instruments, and is committed to share and disseminate these high frequency multi-variate observations internationally via the YOPP data portal. The YOPP Modelling plan includes the requirement from participants to produce and make available vertical outputs at and around the vicinity of these super-sites for verification purposes. Furthermore, YOPP coincides with the launch of a critical satellite for weather forecast systems: the ECMWF led ESA mission ADM-Aeolus which will provide 3 dimensional wind measurement from space. MRD observation site in Iqaluit is uniquely equipped to provide the required dataset for characterisation and validation of the satellite data over the Arctic region. MRD is also preparing to test the assimilation of the wind measurements in MSC's data assimilation.

3 ECCC plans to carry out pre-yopp versus post-yopp performance evaluations of the CAPS-RIOPS system. Also the MSC's Prediction Services Operations and Canadian Ice Service are committed to share their domain awareness and observations including those collected through the Ice Watch ship observations initiative to help with evaluating the added value of available prediction systems (CAPS-RIOPS in particular) and collect valuable user feedback. ECCC have active representatives on the Modelling, Verification, and Buoy Task Teams as well as on the PPP-SERA subcommittee. ECCC is planning to host the first Pan-Arctic Regional Climate Outlook Forum (PARCOF) in Canada in the spring of This will be the initiation of the demonstration phase of the Arctic Polar Regional Climate Centre (PRCC) allowing to showcase the capabilities, skills and investments of its members. YOPP is an important connection to this endeavour as various elements of GIPPS and PPP will help guide the development of the products and services of the Arctic PRCC, and the PARCOF will provide a forum for user engagement and requirements gathering. User relevant aspects How useful is the ice and weather information (analysis and forecasts) provided to users (forecasters, information providers, decision makers, Search and Rescue, Northerners, shipping, etc.) and at what time frames (tactical or strategic, seasonal or sub-seasonal)? ECCC, and to a larger extent the Government of Canada as a whole, have recognized the disparities between services to Northerners compared to those provided in Canada's South and continue to find ways to close the gaps. From a PPP perspective, Canada is represented on the PPP-SERA subcommittee which is working to identify the extent of these issues. The MSC continues to find ways to work with funded initiatives that will help close these gaps (i.e., MEOPAR, METAREA, SAR NIF). The Canadian Ice Service (CIS) has a long standing relation with the users of the ice charts it provides. CIS through the SAR NIF initiative is providing two pilot communities with ice information specific to their safety and security needs and will be collecting feedback from local Emergency Management Organizations (EMO). Several Weather Preparedness Meteorologists (WPM) are located in key locations around the country to work as liaisons to communicate with EMOs. MSC is also setting up Decision Support Desks (DSD) to better formalize and widen the scope of this support mechanism. One is being considered for the Arctic but not likely in time for YOPP. During YOPP, ECCC's S&T will strengthen their collaboration with Northerners at the Iqaluit and Whitehorse supersites through local engagement in education and monitoring activities. Another activity that will take place during YOPP is the hosting of the first PARCOF (described in this proposal) with a strong focus on consultation with users of weather and ice information in the Arctic. Provider relevant aspects How can ice analyses and forecast information be better presented to be of greater use to various users (information providers, decision makers, Northerners, Shipping, etc.)? To address this question, the MSC is setting up a "Virtual Desk" to operate during the YOPP Special Observing Periods (SOPs). Activities will include central and regional operational forecasters to evaluate model performance and usefulness in near-real time. The goal is to leverage their domain knowledge acquired over years of experience and their proximity to users so they may help identify, address and close performance gaps of the prediction system at various

4 resolutions and time scales. Hopefully this information will aid design the future delivery chain from model output to disseminated products. Already the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) makes great use of the EnsGIOPS (20 member probabilistic forecasts out to 32 days) for the production of its official Monthly Outlook for all three areas covering the Canadian basin and Arctic Archipelago. CIS has also begun to look at new ice forecast products from sea-ice model outputs aimed at time frames of 2-7 days. These will be examined closely during YOPP including evaluating the benefits of the higher resolution CAPS-RIOPS model. Within the scope of a MEOPAR funded project, CIS will be seeking feedback from targeted users (FedNav) on the usefulness of these forecast products, on both tactical and strategic scales. Key project deliverables Operational ECCC Arctic (North of 60 ) observations including 86 weather stations, 93 aviation monitoring station, 14 radiosonde sites, 12 cooperative climate stations, drifting buoys (currently 34 with plans to drop more to replenish in 2018), all on GTS. ECCC MSC is running in operation a coupled Global medium-range Deterministic Prediction System GDPS- GIOPS (10-days) with forecasts of ocean, ice and atmospheric conditions. For YOPP, the MSC is planning to augment its services in terms of additional observations and experimental forecasting products. Experimental forecasting products include: CAPS-RIOPS (2-days) pan Arctic 2.5 km fully coupled forecasts (NEMO/CICE/WW3); 32-day ensemble ice forecasts (EnsGIOPS), and improved seasonal forecasts using GEM-NEMO (and working to have these ready for the Pan-Arctic Regional Climate Outlook Forum (PARCOF) in spring of 2018). Additional details are available in the YOPP Modelling Implementation Plan. Outputs will be disseminated nationally and internationally through WMS, GRIB2 and NetCDF formats depending on nature and availability. ECCC has equipped the supersites at Iqaluit and Whitehorse with enhanced observational instruments (e.g. Kaand X band weather radars, ceilometer, radiometer, doppler wind, water vapor, aerosol lidars, flux sensors, fog monitoring devices, wide angle cameras, etc.) to provide high frequency measurements of several atmospheric physical processes, and is committed to share these measurements internationally through the ECpass and YOPP data portal. Plus, the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) will be deploying SAMS buoys with thermistor strings for sea ice and snow thickness at Pond Inlet, Nain, Gjoa Haven and Kugluktuk, all available in near-real time for model evaluation during YOPP SOPs. Report including WMO style objective verification, new spatial techniques (e.i.: ice edge distance metrics) and subjective evaluations from weather and ice forecasters for the CAPS-RIOPS system after each of the Arctic SOPs. Data management dd.beta.weather.gc.ca Is data provided to WMO Global Telecommunication System

5 Yes Real-time provision MSC will be hosting a Datamart site (see above) for sharing of model output. Observations will be on the GTS. Supersite observations will be available at ecpass.ca

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