Connecting weather to boaters. Neal Moodie National Manager, Marine Weather Services May 2015

Transcription

1 Connecting weather to boaters Neal Moodie National Manager, Marine Weather Services May 2015

2 Supporting services with education Talk outline Weather education challenges and options How do boaties use/think about weather services? Concepts for weather service design

3 Key factors - boating incidents Common list of causal factors Alcohol/drugs Speed Life jacket wear Weather Human error and poor judgement Mechanical and vessel integrity

4 Weather safety education strategy Check the weather before you go boating Stay tuned into the weather Wind warning change management program 1. Warning 2. Winds 3. Waves 4. Weather 5. Tides

5 Two paradigms Weather education can learn from investment education logic Investment fraternity appealing to personal security Marine fraternity appealing to personal well-being

6 Investment education learning from surf education logic

7 Dispelling the myths Investment Myth/Mistake #1 Past performance will show you what to expect from future returns Weather example Observations may not tell you what weather is over the horizon

8 Dispelling Future based on past Waking up and going boating because the winds are light is a risky strategy Winds are generally light in the morning Afternoons likely for thunderstorms and seabreezes Forecasts and warnings tell you what to expect many hours before it occurs Observations are useful for ground-truthing

9 Dispelling the myths Investment Myth/Mistake #2 Anchoring: Think about your investment value now, rather than what you paid for it. Weather example Anchoring: Don t make plans (based on the forecast), and then not keep checking the forecast leading up to your activity.

10 Knots Dispelling - anchoring 1 in 4 forecasts issued three days ago will change by more than 5 knots by the current day. Keep checking the forecast, conditions could get worse! Today 3 days ago

11 Dispelling the myths Investment Myth/Mistake #3 Over-Diversification: Adding an investment asset does not reduce the risk of the portfolio more than the loss of potential returns Weather example Over-Diversification: Checking too many weather websites is a recipe for confusion

12 Dispelling Over-Diversification Some weather websites are built on computer model output using a set and forget philosophy for the data quality. Placing too much weight on a forecast with no value is risky. Place more weight on the weather provider with the best accuracy and reputation. Checking low quality forecasts may lead to unsafe or conservative decision making

13 Using computer models Model hour forecast 11am Tuesday 3 rd Feb

14 Using computer models Model hour forecast 11am Tuesday 3 rd Feb

15 Using computer models Model hour forecast 11am Tuesday 3 rd Feb

16 Using computer models Model hour forecast 11am Tuesday 3 rd Feb

17 Using computer models Actual Conditions 11am Tuesday 3 rd Feb

18 Dispelling the myths Investment Myth/Mistake #4 Financial advisors don t help me make money. Weather example Warnings can help you stay out of trouble.

19 Dispelling the value of text Stay tuned into VHF Ch 16 for the latest warning messages. Graphs & tables may not explain the weather situation No two weather systems are the same. A wind change one day may be a southerly buster the next.

20 Dispelling the myths Investment Myth/Mistake #5 Alternative investments are a good choice Weather example Beware of choosing an alternative weather provider without understanding the data source

21 % Correct Dispelling Alternative weather 84 Capital City Yearly Performance Summary % correct within 5 knots, under 15 knots

22 Yearly wind summaries

23 Source of weather information Trust in source of weather 49% trust Bureau the most 22% trust another website or mobile app Source most used Boaters - BoM website (38%) Fishers - mobile devices (40%)

24 Bureau's website Do weather providers fulfil boaters requirements? 43% using the BOM website on mobile devices had their requirements met all of the time Compared to 59% when using the BOM website on a desktop. Other websites 34% using other weather websites on any platform had their requirements met all of the time.

25 Are boaters satisfied with their weather? Satisfaction = Requirements met + accuracy + decision value BOM Website 51% were very satisfied with BOM website on mobile devices. Compared to 79% when using the BOM website on a desktop. Other websites 43% were very satisfied with other weather websites on any platform.

26 Boater behaviour towards weather 61% check the weather every time. 14% never check the weather. Typically check weather 2-3 times before boating When do boaters typically first check the weather? 20% at least several hours 40% on the day 40% at least two or more days

27 Use of boating weather services 60% use a boating or coastal waters forecast. 22% never refer to boating/coastal waters forecast information when checking the weather. 44% were actually aware, but chose not to use them. 17% were actually aware, but were not sure where or how to use them. 38% unaware of boating or coastal waters forecasts

28 Design - Cater for all boat types

29 Weather elements used by coastal users

30 Weather design for boaters Preference to access weather forecasts map - 95% text - 60% tables - 47% graphs - 40% voice - 15%

31 Map products

32 Text products

33 Text products

34 Table and graph products

35 Taking the weather to boaters VHF radio skeds HF continuous weather VMC and VMW Grib files Telephone weather Bureau of Meteorology Jurisdiction services Internet Mobile or satellite MarineLite BOM webpages

36 Desktop marine weather

37 Mobile phone marine weather

38 Key user needs Focus on Now, Soon and next few days Combine area info with point based info To answer the key questions What are the conditions now? What is on the horizon? Can we go tomorrow?

39 Then and now

40 Thank you