Be relevant and effective thinking beyond accuracy and timeliness

Transcription

1 The Fourth Technical Conference on the Management of Meteorological and Hydrological Services in WMO RA II (Asia) Be relevant and effective thinking beyond accuracy and timeliness C. Y. LAM Hong Kong Observatory February 2007

2 Hong Kong Observatory = weather forecasting centre

3 equipment data NMS users forecast

4 The real picture Many individuals Many sectors Many different requirements A wide range of time scales HKO = meteorological service

5 Accurate & timely Forecast for tomorrow Website statistics show that. #1 = observations #2 = 3-day forecast #3 = forecast for tomorrow

6 Observations Accuracy > regional AWS Timeliness > hourly (at least) & within minutes

7 3-day forecast Timeliness = more days ahead Accuracy = only expecting broad trend HKO: 5-day (2000), 7-day (2004)

8 Accurate and timely A fluid concept Adapts itself to the context Know the requirements Be relevant

9 Be relevant now Current readings Now and where people live AWS network Radio and dial-a-weather Internet

10 HKO automatic weather stations in Hong Kong

11 Webpage showing regional temperature readings

12 Network of automated rain-gauges in Hong Kong

13 03:00, 16/07/2006 Webpage showing a localized rainstorm based on the merging of rain-gauge and radar data

14 Be relevant days ahead Broad trend More planning options for people Make good use of NWP data JMA & ECMWF Time series Automated worded forecasts

15 Forecast time series of meteorological parameters generated by HKO based on JMA model outputs

16 Automated 7-day worded forecasts generated by an algorithm developed by HKO based on JMA and ECMWF model outputs

17 Be relevant in decades Climate change interest Timeliness - predicting future climate Accuracy - a lower priority Must say something Statistical downscaling

18 Projected annual number of cold days in winter for Hong Kong Number of cold days in winter Lower Limit Upper Limit Average 4 days 0. 8 days 0 days Decade Projected number of cold days in winter for Hong Kong

19 Be relevant to people Safety Health Environment Tourism Leisure activities

20 Health Cold weather warning Criterion 12 C Switching on the society Caring about the old and the weak

21 Environment Increasing number of days with haze Raising concern about pollution Trend statistics Visibility observations in website Webcam images

22 Webpage showing visibility readings in Hong Kong

23 Weather photo webpage in the HKO website

24 Tourism Automatic weather stations at tourist spots

25 Leisure activities Marine sports Aviation sports Understanding their needs Dedicated web pages

26 Building the capacity Relevance model of operation Observations - AWS Forecasts external sources of information

27 equipment data Give me the best available equipment. NMS NMS users forecast Forecasts must be accurate and timely. The equipment-driven model of operation of national meteorological services

28 administration technical specifications requirements equipment data NMS requirements users observations analyses products forecasts service The requirement-driven model of operation of national meteorological services

29 AWS Technological advances: Affordable Solar & wind power Multiple communication means e.g. GPRS, 3G

30 External info sources RA II pilot project forecast time series for cities from advanced centres via internet [121 cities, 11 Members] Post-processing techniques ECMWF initiative

31 An example of time series products provided By KMA under the RA II pilot project

32 An example of time series provided by ECMWF

33 Accurate and timely = relevant to users Requirement-driver model of operation Common needs > AWS network Several days > forecast time series Diversify into climate change, health, environment, tourism, leisure activities, etc.

34 Relative strength of two different representations of a national meteorological service

35 Sustainable NMS Accurate and timely Be relevant and effective

36 Sit on a stool with many legs!