TROPICAL STORM HARVEY COE Navigation Call - Update

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1 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY COE Navigation Call - Update 10:00 AM CDT Tuesday, August 29, 2017 Prepared by: NWS LIX NWSNewOrleans

2 Situation Overview New Information Drifting ENE at 3mph Max sustained wind 45 mph Immediate Concerns Heavy rain possibly leading to flash flooding; isolated tornadoes. Long-Term Concerns Still could see locally heavy rain through much of the week however location of the heaviest rain may be over the east.

3 Threat Levels Threat Level Extreme High Moderate Low None Winds Surge Rainfall/ Flooding Tornadoes

4 Marine / Coastal Concerns Near Term Today through Thu morning SW Louisiana Tropical Storm Warning in Effect Southeast winds 30 to 45 knots higher gusts in squalls. Wind becoming south to southwest Wed and Wed night. Seas 8 to 14 ft. Numerous showers and thunderstorms Tides 1 to 3 feet above normal. SE Louisiana Tropical Storm Watch East of Morgan City to Grand Isle East MS River - East to southeast wind 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet. West of MS River Southeast wind increasing 20 to 35 knots sustained tropical storm force winds possible. Gust to Tropical Storm Force likely in squalls Seas 6 to 12 ft. Numerous showers and thunderstorms Tides to1to 2 feet above normal through the week. Longer Term Friday through early next week. Wind, seas, and tides should begin to decrease as Harvey pulls away from the area

5 Current Satellite View

6 Current Radar 9AM Tue

7 Forecast & Rainfall: Today Frontal boundary continues to serves as a focus for rainfall. Harvey will slowly turn to the northeast. Shower and thunderstorm activity due to Harvey will continue to increase over our area with heavier rain bands moving across the region.

8 Forecast & Rainfall: Wednesday Use Gill Sans MT font Harvey approaching the coast near the LA/TX border. Tropical moisture from Harvey already in place however dry air will try to wrap around causing the heavier rain bands to possibly slide more to the east into coastal MS. If Harvey doesn t push as far east then the rain bands will stay more over southeast LA

9 Forecast & Rainfall: Thursday Use Gill Sans MT font Harvey moving into northern Louisiana. Drier air tries to wrap around and should continue to push the deeper moisture east of the area however showers and thunderstorms will still impact the area with locally heavy rain possible. We will continue to evaluate model guidance on the trend of pushing heavier rain eastward.

10 Forecast & Rainfall: Friday & Saturday Use Gill Sans MT font Likely Harvey remnants moving through Arkansas and into Tennessee. Drier air will continue to work over the region and conditions should begin to return to more of a typical Summer pattern with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

11 Forecast: Sunday Harvey is finally gone and a more typical pattern return. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Note: There will likely be locally higher amounts

12 Expected Storm Total Rainfall Storm total rainfall forecast valid today through through Thursday Locally, most rain will occur today and Wednesday Note: There will likely be locally higher amounts

13 Tornado Potential Isolated tornadoes are possible across much of the area through tonight.

14 Summary - Forecast is expected to begin to turn to the northeast later today be near the Louisiana/Texas border midday Wednesday. No significant strengthening expected due to limited time over the water. Tropical Storm/Warnings Morgan City westward. Tropical Storm Watch east of Morgan City to Grand Isle. Even though Harvey is expect to move a tad further east due to it taking on different characteristics the impacts are not expected to change much at this time.

15 Summary - Impacts Heavy Rainfall / Flooding Primary Threat Additional 4 to 8 inches of rain southeast Louisiana with locally higher amounts expected. High amounts southwest and southcentral Louisiana *** STORM TOTAL rainfall of 5 to 10 inches of rain with locally higher amounts. *** Some of the rainfall will likely occur in short periods of time potentially leading to Flash Flooding Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Thursday to give notice to the potential of Flash Flooding. Often good at the big picture, very tough to tell where heavy rain bands will set up in advance, be ready for Flash Flood Warnings. Tornadoes Isolated tornadoes possible within rain bands. Tides Tides expected to be 1 to 2 feet above normal through Thursday. Tides up to 3 feet above normal SW Louisiana coastal waters. Winds Tropical Storm force sustained winds Louisiana coastal waters Morgan City westward, and possible of Grand Isle to east of Morgan City. Gusts to tropical storm strength in any squall.

16 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY BRIEFING Please contact WFO at or or through the LIXchat NWSChatroom You can get the latest graphics and information on this storm at NWSNewOrleans

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