Current Details from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Transcription

1 Current Details from the Joint Warning Center COORDINATES: 10.2 north, east (previous location: 10.1 north, east) LOCATION: 520 kilometers (325 miles) southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam MOVEMENT: west at 9 kph (6 mph) (previous: west at 6 kph (3 mph)) WINDS: 100 kph (65 mph) with gusts to 130 kph (80 mph) (previous: 120 kph (75 mph)) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 175 kilometers (110 miles) RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 30 kilometers (20 miles) MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE: 982 millibars (previous: 974 millibars) SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: 24-HOUR LANDFALL POTENTIAL: NONE 24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT LOCAL INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: LOW Latest Satellite Picture Source: University of Wisconsin (CIMSS) Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

2 Discussion Chan-hom, located approximately 520 kilometers (325 miles) southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, is currently tracking westward at 9 kph (6 mph). High resolution animated satellite imagery shows a fully exposed low-level circulation center with the recent convection associated with the storm weakening and shearing to the west. Satellite water vapor imagery shows a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) cell, that was located far northeast of the system, has tracked southwest over the past three to four hours, positioning itself just upstream of Chan-hom. TUTT s have the effect of increasing the vertical wind shear and creating convergence aloft. These impacts are suppressing and weakening the convection associated with Chan-hom. The initial position is based on the aforementioned satellite imagery with high confidence. The current intensity has been lowered to 100 kph (65 mph) based on the lack of a convective structure. However, due to the current state of the system, the intensity could be lower. Chan-hom is drifting slowly westward. Chan-hom will continue to drift slowly westward to west-northwestward over the next 12 hours due to the positioning of the TUTT cell north of the system. It will turn to take a northwestward trajectory as the TUTT retrogrades to the east while weakening and is reabsorbed into the longwave pattern. The system will continue to weaken over the next 24 hours due to the impacts of the TUTT cell. Beyond Saturday morning (local time), the storm will begin to re-intensify due to favorable divergent outflow and decreased vertical wind shear as it accelerates northwestward. In the extended forecast, Chan-hom will continue to track northwestward and further intensify as vertical wind shear decreases and the remaining environmental conditions stay favorable. Forecast model guidance tends to struggles with the interaction between the system and the TUTT. Due to this, and the complexity of the steering environment, there is low confidence in the JTWC forecast track. Cat Alert: Chan-hom 2

3 Joint Warning Center Forecast Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the Joint Warning Center at NEXT CAT ALERT: Friday evening after 10:00 PM Central Time (03:00 UTC Saturday). Cat Alert: Chan-hom 3

4 * Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED KTS 1 MPH 1 KPH NE, Atlantic National Center (NHC) NW Joint Warning Center (JTWC) BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU NW Japan Agency (JMA) SW Fiji Service (FMS) Australia Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) Low SW Indian Meteo-France (MF) North Indian India Department (IMD) Deep Moderate Intense Very Cat. 5 >140 >160 >260 Super Cat. 5 Cat. 5 Very Intense Super Cat Alert: Chan-hom 4

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