Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Transcription

1 Current Watches and Warnings A Warning is in effect from San Blas to Punta San Telmo, Mexico A Warning is in effect from east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico; north of San Blas to El Roblito, Mexico Current Details from the National Center (NHC) COORDINATES: 20.2 north, west (previous location: 17.6 north, west) LOCATION: 50 miles (75 kilometers) southeast of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico MOVEMENT: north-northeast at 20 mph (31 kph) (previous: north at 10 mph (17 kph)) WINDS: 130 mph (215 kph) with gusts to 160 mph (260 kph) (previous: 200 mph (325 kph)) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 140 miles (220 kilometers) RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 35 miles (55 kilometers) MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 946 millibars (previous: 880 millibars) SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 4 LANDFALL LOCATION: near Cuixmala, Mexico LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: approximately 6:15 pm local time Friday (23:15 UTC) LANDFALL INTENSITY: 165 mph (270 kph) Category 5 Latest Satellite Picture Source: NOAA Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

2 Discussion Major Patricia, located approximately 50 miles (75 kilometers) southeast of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, is currently tracking north-northeast at 20 mph (31 kph). Satellite and surface data indicate that the center of Patricia made landfall at approximately 6:15 PM local time (23:15 UTC) near Cuixmala, Mexico with maximum sustained winds estimated at 165 mph (270 kph). Despite weakening from its peak intensity earlier on Friday at 200 mph (325 kph), Patricia remained a Category 5 at landfall. Since that time, the eye has become obscured, with a large circular area of deep convection continuing near the center. Given the clear weakening trend, the NHC has reduced the initial wind speed to 130 mph (215 kph). Rapid weakening should continue as the cyclone interacts with the mountains of Mexico. The forecast intensity is lower than the model consensus due to the very high terrain. Patricia should move to the north-northeast and northeast ahead of a mid-level trough over the south-central United States. Full dissipation is expected within the next 24 hours. The forecast models continue to depict the development of a cyclone near the Texas coast over the weekend. This system is expected to be non-tropical. However, this area of low pressure is expected to draw significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline within the next few days. An unconfirmed sustained wind report of 185 mph and a gust to 211 mph was received from a NOAA/NWS Hydrometeorological Automated Data System (HADS) elevated station (295 feet) at Chamela-Cuixmala, Mexico near the time of landfall. This observation should be considered unofficial until it has been quality controlled. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Now that Patricia has moved inland while the coastal threat is decreasing strong and damaging winds, especially at higher elevations, will persist through Saturday morning. 2. Very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through Saturday. conditions are occurring across the hurricane warning area. storm conditions are expected to continue across portions of the warning area and in inland areas near the center through early Saturday. Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Water levels are expected to gradually subside overnight but remain above normal through late Saturday. Near the coast, large and destructive waves are forecast to continue overnight. Swells generated by Patricia are likely to affect the southwest coast of Mexico for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Cat Alert: Major Patricia 2

3 Facts Patricia on October 23 became the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded at 200 mph (325 kph). Patricia broke a North Pacific Ocean basin record with a remarkable 115 mph (185 kph) explosive intensification cycle in 24 hours between October 22 09Z (85 mph) to October 23 09Z (200 mph); and a 160 mph (260 kph) rapid intensification cycle during a 48-hour stretch from October 21 09Z (40 mph) to October 23 09Z (200 mph). Patricia, at 879 millibars, set the all-time lowest minimum central pressure on record. Patricia s minimum central pressure dropped at least 100 millibars in a 24-hour span, an all-time record in the Western Hemisphere. Patricia ended up as the strongest landfalling cyclone on Mexico s Pacific coastline in its recorded history (165 mph). It overtook the previous record of 160 mph by the October 1959 hurricane. Cat Alert: Major Patricia 3

4 10/20/15Z 10/20/21Z 10/21/03Z 10/21/09Z 10/21/12Z 10/21/15Z 10/21/18Z 10/21/21Z 10/22/00Z 10/22/03Z 10/22/06Z 10/22/09Z 10/22/12Z 10/22/15Z 10/22/18Z 10/22/21Z 10/23/00Z 10/23/03Z 10/23/06Z 10/23/09Z 10/23/12Z 10/23/15Z 10/23/18Z 10/23/21Z 10/23/23Z 10/24/00Z 10/24/03Z Aon Benfield National Center Forecast Patricia Wind Intensity Plot Patricia's Remarkable Intensification Cat October 21 (09Z): 40 mph - October 22 (09Z): 85 mph - Category 1 October 23 (09Z): 200 mph - Category 5 October 23 4:00 AM CDT 200 mph 100 TS October 22 4:00 AM CDT 85 mph 0 Source: Aon Benfield & National Center Cat Alert: Major Patricia 4

5 Weather Prediction Center: Rainfall Potential Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the National Center at NEXT CAT ALERT: Since landfall has occurred and rapid dissipation is expected over Mexico s mountainous terrain within the next 24 to 36 hours, this is the final Cat Alert. Full details on the event, including damage in Mexico and potential flooding in Texas from Patricia s remnants, will be included in this week s Weekly Cat Report. Cat Alert: Major Patricia 5

6 * Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED KTS 1 MPH 1 KPH NE Pacific, Atlantic National Center (NHC) NW Pacific Joint Typhoon W arning Center (JTWC) BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU NW Pacific Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) SW Pacific Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) Australia Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) Low SW Indian Meteo-France (MF) North Indian India Meteorological Department (IMD) Deep Moderate Major Typhoon Typhoon Intense Very Major Cat. 5 Major >140 >160 >260 Super Typhoon Cat. 5 Cat. 5 Very Intense Super Cat Alert: Major Patricia 6

7 About Aon Benfield Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world s leading reinsurance intermediary and fullservice capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Copyright by Impact Forecasting No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting s webpage at impactforecasting.com. Copyright by Aon plc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc. Cat Alert: Major Patricia 7