Frank Marshall CLF. Lynn Wingard, USGS Patrick Pitts, USFWS. Evelyn Gaiser, FIU Ania Wachnicka, FIU

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1 Pre-drainage Everglades Hydrology and Florida Bay Salinity Based on Paleoecology and Statistical Models Florida Bay and Adjacent Marine Systems Science Conference 2008 Frank Marshall CLF Lynn Wingard, USGS Patrick Pitts, USFWS Evelyn Gaiser, FIU Ania Wachnicka, FIU

2 OBJECTIVES OF PALEOSALINITY PROJECTS Use paleoecological information from multiple sediment cores in Florida Bay Couple with statistical models Develop independent estimates of pre-drainage hydrology in the Everglades stage flow salinity in the Bay 3 cores evaluated to-date

3 MULTIPLE FUNDING PARTNERS Previous Studies: CESI / ENP Whipray Basin Bob Allen Key RECOVER Whipray Basin Bob Allen Key Shark River (future) Current Studies: USGS Rankin Lake Next station Russell Bank? Pass Key? Taylor Creek?

4 AVAILABLE DATA Paleoecology Stage in Everglades Flow in Shark River Slough and Taylor Slough Salinity in Florida Bay

5 Paleoecological Data: USGS Sediment Cores Upcoming: one of these Buoy Key Whipray Basin

6 Paleoecological Data: FIU Sediment Cores Florida Bay Sampling Events /Modern Samples Location /2007 BOB ALLEN KEY Atlantic Ocean N Sediment Cores Location STUDY AREA

7 Available Data: Stage and Flow TAMIAMI TRAIL SHARK RIVER SLOUGH GULF OF MEXICO P33 CP TAYLOR SLOUGH BRIDGE FLORIDA BAY

8 Available Data: Salinity Everglades National Park Marine Monitoring Network Stations (daily) SERC (monthly) NOTE: MLR Salinity models exist for all 31 MMN stations

9 PALEOSALINITY ANALYSIS PROCEDURE 3 Phases Develop paleosalinity regime and time series Develop regression models Link paleosalinity regime and regression models to estimate pre-drainage stage, flow, and salinity 8 Steps

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11 Whipray Basin Paleoecological Information WHIPRAY BASIN CORE, USGS ANALYSIS, BASED ON MOLLUSKS & FORAMS

12 Example: Whipray Basin Paleosalinity Regime

13 PALEOSALINITY COMPARISON Station Obs Mean paleo nsm462 WB BA ( ) 30.6 BK

14 WHIPRAY BASIN PALEOSALINITY (modified NSM/MLR output) Simulated vs. Observed Salinity (PSU) May-64 May-69 May-74 May-79 May-84 May-89 May-94 May-99 whippaleo whip

15 LINKING REGRESSION MODELS PRIMARY STAGE STATIONS stage (ft NGVD29) Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 CP pcp ** Dependent Variable Independent Variable Coefficient Intercept Adj-R 2 Whipray Basin P33 CP Bob Allen Key P33lag53 CP lag Buoy Key P33 lag1 CP lag4 **

16 LINKING REGRESSION MODELS FLOW and STAGE Dependent Variable Independent Variable Adj-R 2 TSB CP SRS G3273 P33 P cfs srs psrs 0 NP206 P Dec-91 Dec-93 Dec-95 Dec-97 Dec-99 TSH CP 0.71

17 LINKING REGRESSION MODELS SALINITY Dependent Variable Whipray Basin Adj-R 2 Bob Allen Key Adj-R 2 Buoy Key Adj-R 2 Bob Allen Buoy Key Butternut Key Duck Key Garfield Bight Joe Bay Johnson Key Little Madeira Bay Little Rabbit Murray Key Peterson Key Terrapin Bay

18 Output: Primary P33 Stage Stations Paleo-based vs CP Observed Stage Station Salinity Source Mean (m) paleo-obs (m) paleo: observed P33 observed 1.93 Whipray paleo Bob Allen paleo Buoy Key paleo CP observed 0.39 Whipray paleo Bob Allen paleo Buoy Key paleo

19 SRS Output: Mean Flow TSB Paleo-based vs Observed Flow Station Salinity Source Mean Flow (m 3 /sec) paleo: observed SRS observed 42.4 Whipray paleo Bob Allen paleo Buoy Key paleo TSB observed 2.23 Whipray paleo Bob Allen paleo Buoy Key paleo

20 Output: Stage Difference at Other Station From WB and BK Paleosalinity Station Location WB-based Difference paleo-obs (m) BK-based Difference paleo-obs (m) G3273 Shark River Slough NP206 Shark River Slough TSH Taylor Slough

21 Output: Paleo-based Salinity Regime in Florida Bay Station Observed Average WB-based Paleo BK-based Paleo BA-based Paleo Bob Allen Buoy Key Butternut Key Duck Key Garfield Bight Joe Bay Johnson Key Little Madeira Bay Little Rabbit Murray Key Peterson Key Terrapin Bay

22 paleo : obs SRS_WB SRS_BK Output: month Monthly Average Flow paleo : obs TSB_WB TSB_BK Comparison month DRY WET

23 Paleo-based Salinity Regime WBPALEO BKPALEO EXIST SOURCE: Bulger, Hayden, Monaco, Nelson, McCormack-Ray; Estuaries Vol. 16, No. 2, p June 1993

24 flow, cm 10^ obssrs paleosrs Target: Shark River Slough Flow month DRY SEASON WET SEASON flow, cm 10^ obstsb predtsb Target: Taylor Slough Flow month

25 Targets SHARK RIVER SLOUGH (Tamiami Trail) 250 to 450 x 10 6 cu m TAYLOR SLOUGH 20 to 40 x 10 6 cu m

26 SALINITY COMPARISON Observed, Paleo, NSM 462, NSM 512 (New Topography) Station Obs N Obs Mean paleo nsm462 nsm512 paleo/nsm N BA BK WB Obs>NSM 462>NSM 512>Paleo

27 SUMMARY FINDINGS OF PALEOSALINITY ANALYSIS TO- DATE A methodology was developed to link paleosalinity data to upstream hydrology in the Everglades Pre-drainage salinity regime requires about times more freshwater than the current flow regime. Florida Bay pre-drainage salinity was oligohaline to polyhaline

28 SUMMARY CURRENT CONDITIONS COMPARED TO PALEO CONDITIONS Currently: Taylor Slough flow deficit is >>> than the deficit in Shark River Slough during the dry season. Average Everglades stage is about 0.5 m lower. Florida Bay salinity is about 5 15 psu higher. Work is continuing

29 SUMMARY PALEO-BASED SALINITY COMPARED TO OTHER SIMULATIONS OF PRE-DRAIANAGE CONDITIONS Obs>NSM 462>NSM 512>Paleo

30 Natural trend line offset GOAL: Determine the offset needed for salinity restoration targets taking into account irreversible anthropogenic changes and SLR Salinity (ppt)

31 THANK YOU!