National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin. 22 May 2012

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1 National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin 22 May 2012

2 Outline Welcome Keith Ingram, UF, Southeast Climate Consortium Current drought status and how we got here David Zierden, FSU, Florida Climate Center Streamflows and groundwater Tony Gotvald, USGS Reservoir status Bailey Crane, USACE Precipitation and hurricane outlook David Zierden Streamflow forecasts Todd Hammil, SE River Forecast Center Summary and Discussion

3 Current drought status from Drought Monitor

4 Cumulative Rainfall Deficits Past 30 days Past 180 days

5 7-day Rainfall Totals

6 Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Previous Brief: Current:

7 Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Previous brief: Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current:

8 Lake Lanier Inflows Chestatee near Dahlonega ( ) Chattahoochee near Cornelia ( )

9 Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at West Point ( ) Flint at Bainbridge ( )

10 Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee ( )

11 Groundwater Status Miller County, GA (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

12 USACE ACF Operations

13 Elevation in FT NGVD Lake Lanier Lanier Action Zones and Actual 2012 Elevations Top of Conservation Zone 3 Zone 2 Zone Zone Record Low Elevations Actual data thru May 22, Actual Elevation Forecast Elevation Historical Average Elevation Record Low Elevation ( ) Bottom of Conservation Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

14 West Point Elevation in FT MSL West Point Action Zones and Actual 2012 Elevations Top of Conservation Zone Zone 3 Zone Zone Actual data thru May 22, Actual Elevation Forecast Elevation Historical Average Elevation Bottom of Conservation Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

15 Elevation in FT MSL W.F. George W.F. George Action Zones and Actual 2012 Elevations Top of Conservation Zone 2 Zone Zone Zone 4 Actual data thru May 22, Actual Elevation Forecast Elevation Historical Average Elevation Bottom of Conservation Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

16 Woodruff Elevation in FT NGVD Jim Woodruff Actual & Projected 2012 Elevations Maximum Operating Level Actual data thru May 22, Actual Elevation Forecast Elevation Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

17 2012 ACF Basin Composite Conservation & Flood Storage 1,800,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 Top of Conservation 1,600,000 Composite Conservation & Flood Storage, (ac-ft) 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , ,000 Drought Zone Composite Zone 4 Composite Zone 3 Composite Zone 1 Composite Zone 2 George Conservation West Point Conservation Lake Lanier Conservation 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 George Flood Storage West Point Flood Storage Lake Lanier Flood Storage 200,000-1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 0 Actual data thru Add value of 1,856,000 acre-ft to include inactive storage.

18

19 5-Day Precipitation Forecast

20 3-Month Outlook Precipitation Temperature

21 U.S. Drought Outlook

22

23 Seasonal Hurricane Forecast Colorado State University (Klotzbach and Gray): 10 Named Storms (12 is normal) 4 Hurricanes (6.5 is normal) 2 Major Hurricanes (2 is normal) NOAA Alberto Should be released before June 1

24 Formation Regions and Landfalls

25 Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg Lovejoy Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal West Point Columbus Carsonville WF George Albany Columbus Woodruff Blountstown

26 9% 18% Lake Lanier Inflows 73% 9% 1% Whitesburg Above Normal Near Normal 90% West Point 14% 7% 79% Lovejoy Carsonville Below Normal Columbus 3% WF George Columbus 13% 84% Albany Woodruff 7% 4% 89% Blountstown

27 Summary Despite recent rains, 30-day and 180-day rainfall deficits are large and drought continues throughout most of the basin, with significant areas classified as extreme or exceptional Streamflows in the upper basin have recovered slightly, but remain below historical observations in the lower part of the basin Groundwater in Miller County, GA has declined since mid March, and is now in the range of the lowest 10% of historic observations The short-term outlook for rainfall is fair, but the 3-month outlook is for drought to persist in the upper part of the basin and improve in the southern part of the basin

28 Summary Lake Lanier levels are at the border of zone 3 and 4 and forecast to remain at that point West Point and WF George levels are in the middle of zone 3, as is the the composite Current ENSO conditions are neutral IRI predicts nearly equal chances that neutral or El Niño conditions will continue during fall and winter The Colorado State U forecast for summer tropical storm predicts 10 named storms and 4 hurricanes, but this forecast does not predict where or whether these storms will make landfall The streamflow forecast for the next 1 and 3 months is for a high probability that streamflows will remain below normal

29 References Speakers David Zierden, FSU Tony Gotvald, USGS Bailey Crane, USACE Todd Hammil, SERFC Moderator Keith Ingram, UF/SECC Additional information General drought information General climate and El Niño information Streamflow monitoring Groundwater monitoring

30 Thank you! Next briefing 5 June 2012, 1:00 pm EST Slides from this briefing will be posted at Please send comments and suggestions to:

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