South Florida climate over the last 5,000 years
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1 South Florida climate over the last 5, years inferences from paleoecological studies Colin Saunders South Florida Water Management District Climate Change Workshop, October 3, 29
2 Roadmap Paleo-climate context global climate drivers southeastern US climate circum-caribbean climate S. Florida paleoecological studies freshwater Everglades and elsewhere Summary consensus discrepancies uncertainties, data gaps
3 Inferring climate from paleoecological data Ecosystem & Landscape Development (peat accumulation, nutrient cycling) Climate (paleo) Flora and fauna Groundwater Dynamics (long term climate, sea level) Coastal transgression (sea level & salinity)
4 Sea level variation 15 kya to present Age (kya) ka Depth below M.S.L. (meters) since ~15kya, sea-level has risen 9 meters fastest rise from 7kya (6 m) to 3 kya (1 m) most evidence points to gradual rise vs mid-holocene highstand ~6-5 kya rising sea-level raises groundwater, slows overland flow ( masks droughts) Gleason, Environments of South Florida Present and Past II. Miami Geol. Soc.
5 Rodbell et al., Science El Niño-Southern Oscillation () 15 kya to present Lagoona Calcacocha, Peru inorganic laminae, subalpine lake depositional ~ El Niño events changes in periodicity 7 15 kybp: >15 yr 5 7 kybp: 1 2 & yr <5 kybp: yr stronger = wetter dry seasons in FL strong moderate # events Reidinger et al., 22 J. Paleolim. Bainbridge Crater Lake, Galapagos laminated sediments depositional events ~ El Niño events 1ka 2ka 3ka 4ka 5ka 6ka
6 Regional Perspective S.Carolina GA, FL Fakahatchee Everglades FL Bay Bisc. Bay Yucatan Haiti Peten Jamaica Cariaco Basin Lake Valencia Adapted from Higuera et al 1999
7 South Carolina coastal plain 6kya present Peat Bay, SC: coastal plain sediments abundance of aerophlic/planktonic diatoms, pollen, invertebrates, plant remains Gaiser et al., 21 J. Paleolim. 3.8 kya 4.6 kya 5.2 kya related to changes in hydroperiod three main periods: 5.2 kya beginning of record 4.6 kya open water system 3.8 kya reduced hydroperiods
8 Georgia & Florida: lakes and swamps Okefenokee Swamp (GA) Taxodium water lily 2 3ka 4.5ka 6ka 2 3 phases of wet conditions Mud Lake (N.FL), Lake Tulane (C. FL) Pine Oak Taxodium 2ka 5ka 6 8ka Nymphaea peats initiated (Okefenokee, some lakes) 5 7ka shift oak to pine pollen (lakes) 2 3ka increased Taxodium (lakes) oak pollen decline (Okefen. SE US) 5ka Fair Page & Cohen, 199 Watts 197, 71; Grimm et al., 26
9 Lake Annie, Florida Amanda Quillen, FIU 1ka 2ka 3ka 4ka 5ka 6ka 7ka 9ka 11ka 45 YBP to more rainfall, per pollen data (Watts, 1975) 4 YBP shift to more groundwater influence, less overland flow (Quillen, in prep)
10 Cariaco Basin: Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) 15kya to present Amanda Quillen, FIU sediment Titantium content riverine input & rainfall ITCZ lattitude time resolution bimonthly to subdecadal LIA 3 4ka Haug et al., 21 & 23. Science
11 Cariaco Basin: Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) Amanda Quillen, FIU stable, wet conditions from 8 4 kya 4 3 KYBP shifts southward drier, more variable as strengthens linked to Yucatan climate MWP (8 95 AD ) megadroughts & Mayan collapse linked to Haiti climate ostracode d18o & pollen 3 4ka strengthens (<5 ka) Haug et al., 21 & 23. Science; Hodell et al., 1995; Hodell et al., 1991; Higuera et al ka 12 8ka
12 SE United States Caribbean GA,N.FL lakes, swamp C.FL lakes Lake Annie S. FL Haiti, Yucatan SC c. plain (3.8ka) drying (SE US) Ponds to temporary wetlds (5.2ka) Oxbow channels to ponds (SE US) (2 3ka) shift wetter, C FL to GA lakes (SE US) ( ka) lose oaks (4.5ka) drier(?) w.lily Taxodium. (5.ka) shift to wetter conditions, N.FL to GA lakes (SE US) (2 3ka) shift wetter, C FL to GA lakes (SE US) (~6ka) shift to wetter water lily peat initiation N. FL Okefenokee Swamp (4.3ka) shift to wetter (pine) C. FL lake (~6ka) shift to wetter, warm conditions Lake Tulane FL?????????????? (1 1.7ka) brief wet (3.2ka ) drying trend D.Rep., L. Valencia, Bahamas, Yucatan (7 1ka) gets wetter in low elevation lakes Haiti, Yucatan Cariaco Basin, VZ 1ka 2ka 3ka 4ka 5ka 6ka 7ka
13 S. FL Paleoecological studies Time & Spatial Domain Climate Index? Methodology (KYBP) Spatial Domain Climate/Envt 14C macro- char- Reference Time Period Details Index Examined Stratigr. dates Pollen fossil coal Other Methods 31 freshwater Everglades studies 12 examine time scale >1 5 kya Methodologies vary Stratigraphy 14C dates pollen macrofossils microfossils charcoal lots of other few (but growing) analyses link with climate Altschuler et al (no dates) Tamiami Trail - x no.... Bernhardt and Willard 29 3 WCA3 MWP, LIA yes x Chmura et al., 26 (no dates) SRS. no x spores Cohen 1999? WCA2. x? ~ x tissue fragment Cohen Geo Soc Am Bull 6 Everglades SE US pollen? x Cohen 1974? Everglades SE US pollen x? x Cohen J. Sed Petrology v ? Everglades? x? x x thin-sections Cohen 1968 PhD tehsis? Everglades? x? Cohen and Spackman 1972.? Everglades? x? x x thin-sections Cohen and Spackman Envts of S. FL? Everglades? x? x x thin-sections Cohen and Spackman Palaeontogr Everglades? x? x thin-sections Craighead Everglades? x?? calls the calci Dachnowski-Stokes 193.? EAA? x no? Davis, JH Jr FL Geol Surv Bull.? Everglades? x?? Davis, JH Jr FL Geol Surv Bull.? Florida? x?? Donders et al., 25 5 BICY / SW FL? (, SLR) yes x x? Gao et al., in prep 1 SRS, TS. x no x x macrofossils Gleason & Stone Everglades x yes cite Gleason et Gleason origin, sedimentation, stratigraphy? S. FL Yes Gleason et al Envts of S.FL? S. FL, SLR yes note the calcit Gleason, Stone, et al., WCA1,2,3 Lake O x yes x x stratigr. of pe Jones LA Uni FL Agr exp sta. Bull? Everglades?? Riegel WL 1964 PhD diss. Penn State Univ? SW FL?? Saunders et al. 28, 26 (and in prep) 5 SRS ITCZ, PSDI, x yes ~ x ~ x biomarkers; som Slate & Stevenson, 2 recent (<.5) WCA2 - no x microfossils (d Smith WG PhD diss. Penn State Univ.? S. FL?? Spackman Rigel and Dolsen 1964.???? x thin-sections Spackman, et al., Geol Soc Amer 5 Everglades? x? x x x thin-sections Willard et al., 26 Ecol. Monographs 5 Everglades ITCZ, PSDI yes x Willard et al., 21 Bull Am Pal. 5 Everglades MWP, LIA x yes x x molluscs, algae Winkler et al. 21 Bull Am Pal. 5 WCA3, SRS, TS SLR, SST, Solar x yes ~ ~ ~ microfossils (d
14 (adapted from Winkler et al., 21; * = new) Qualitative reconstruction of hydrologic changes in the Everglades (Winkler et al., 21): kya, wet conditions FL lakes S.FL climate ITCZ (Haug ITCZ et al., 1) Haug Rodbell 1999 Reidinger 22 1k kya, dry conditions k 2 1 kya, wet conditions 1.5kya present, high variability.. To be decided Age (cal YBP) k 4k strong moderate 5k k 62 64
15 South Florida Paleoclimate Contours of limestone bedrock (relative to Okeechobee datum) Sediment thickness and basal peat dates Phase 1: peat initiation KYBP habitat Reference marsh, tree is. Spackman et al., Everglades-wide Gleason,Stone ridge-slough Willard et al., S. Everglades Winkler et al., tree islands Willard et al., ridge-slough Saunders et al Cypress swamp Donders et al., 25 Willard et al., 26
16 S. FL Paleoclimate Phase 2. Calcitic Mud Event 3.2 2kya Altschuler et al., 1983 Science Gleason & Stone 1994
17 S. FL Paleoclimate Phase 2. Calcitic Mud Event 3.2 2kya S. WCA 3 WCA 3 W SRS NE SRS 26ybp 1 ybp 5 ybp 319ybp 21 ybp 3 ybp So. WCA ybp 196 ybp 32 ybp 33 ybp Gleason et al., 1975 (Shark Slough, Tamiaimi Trail) Gleason & Stone 1994 so. WCA 3A 435 ybp Winkler et al., ybp 48 ybp 44 ybp Saunders et al., 28
18 NE Shark Slough slough core 1 C53 seeds # cm C53 seeds # cm FL lakes S.FL climate 2 ITCZ (Haug ITCZ et al., 1) Haug Rodbell 1999 Reidinger 22 5 ybp k ybp 33 ybp Yr B.P Chara & sedge water lily sawgrass Age (cal YBP) k 3k 4k strong moderate 5k Saunders et al., k
19 West Shark Slough A6 sclereids.6ml FL lakes S.FL climate ITCZ (Haug ITCZ et al., 1) Haug Rodbell 1999 Reidinger k k Age (cal YBP) k 4k strong moderate 5k Winkler et al., k 62 64
20 SW Shark Slough sawgrass core 1 C1 seeds # cm C1 seeds # cm FL lakes S.FL climate 2 ITCZ (Haug ITCZ et al., 1) Haug Rodbell 1999 Reidinger k k Yr B.P Age (cal YBP) k 4k strong moderate 5k Saunders et al., k
21 SW Shark Slough sawgrass core 1 C1 seeds # cm C1 seeds # cm charcoal (mm2/cm2/yr) 1 2 FL lakes S.FL climate 2 ITCZ (Haug ITCZ et al., 1) Haug Rodbell 1999 Reidinger k k Yr B.P Age (cal YBP) k 4k strong moderate 5k Saunders et al., k
22 WCA 3A sawgrass core 1 FL lakes S.FL climate 2 ITCZ (Haug ITCZ et al., 1) Haug Rodbell 1999 Reidinger k 14 greater abundance of drier plant species pollen 3 2kya k deepwater species increase 2 1kya rapid shifts in dominant communities at ~1kya (MWP) and 4ybp (LIA) when ITCZ shifted southward 2812 Age (cal YBP) strong moderate 3k 4k 5k Bernhardt & Willard, k 62 64
23 Timing of Tree Island Development, Drought Intervals, & ITCZ FL lakes S.FL climate ITCZ (Haug ITCZ et al., 1) Haug Rodbell 1999 Reidinger k k Age (cal YBP) k 4k strong moderate 5k k Willard et al.,
24 S. FL Paleoclimate Summary so far same hydrologic changes observed across studies, habitats, and sub regions FL lakes S.FL climate ITCZ (Haug ITCZ et al., 1) Haug Rodbell 1999 Reidinger 22 1k Willard et al., 22, 26 WCA 1, 2, 3 and ENP k Willard Saunders et al., et 21 al., 28 WCA 2 WCA 3B site 2 Willard et 21 WCA 2, site 2 Bernhardt et al., 29 WCA 3A Saunders et al., 28 no. WCA 3B Winkler et al., 21 WCA 3B Gleason & Stone, 1994 so. WCA 3A Altschuler et al., 1983 so. WCA 3A/B Gleason & Stone, 1994 NE Shark Slough Saunders et al., 28 NE Shark Slough Winkler et al., 21 West Shark Slough Saunders et al., 28 SW Shark Slough Age (cal YBP) strong moderate 3k 4k 5k k 62 64
25 Southwest-FL: Fakahatchee Strand Taxodium dominant 1 Step-increases in Taxodium Pine w/ wet prairie Donders et al., 25 PNAS 5
26 2 CA axis 1 (Donders et al 6) FL lakes S.FL climate ITCZ (Haug ITCZ et al., 1) Haug Rodbell 1999 Reidinger 22 Taxodium dominant k k 22 Step-increases in Taxodium Age (cal YBP) k 4k Pine w/ wet prairie strong moderate 5k k 62 64
27 S. Florida Paleoclimate: Consensus, Disagreements FL lakes 2 CA axis 1 (Donders et al 6) S.FL climate ITCZ (Haug ITCZ et al., 1) Haug Rodbell 1999 Reidinger 22 2 Winkler Everglades 4 step hypothesis: wet dry wet dry/variable no climate proxy completely right sensitive to ITCZ dry events k Donders Fakahatchee 2 step hypothesis wet and wetter! consistent with, paleo climate from lakes remaining uncertainties & data gaps East West gradient for S. FL? habitat and subregional sensitivities? Charophyte & Sedge analogues? frequency versus severity? improved age models (3 5 kya)? Lake Annie? sea level? Age (cal YBP) strong moderate 2k 3k 4k 5k 6k 62 64
28 WCA-2 ridge-slough 2.5kya - present drier species dominant from MWP ~1 ybp, 4 ybp (LIA), to present Wetter conditions 2 ybp Willard et al., 21
29 Fixed Tree Island Development and Paleo climate Willard et al., 26
30 1 NE Shark Slough sawgrass core C53 seeds # cm C53 seeds # cm FL lakes S.FL climate 2 ITCZ (Haug ITCZ et al., 1) Haug Rodbell 1999 Reidinger k Yr B.P Chara & sedge water lily sawgrass Age (cal YBP) k 3k 4k strong moderate 5k Saunders et al., k
31 WCA3B Slough core 1 C123 seeds # cm C123 seeds # cm FL lakes S.FL climate 2 ITCZ (Haug ITCZ et al., 1) Haug Rodbell 1999 Reidinger k same trend is shown from macrofossil data in WCA3B drier species increase 3 2 kya Yr B.P Age (cal YBP) k 3k 4k strong moderate 5k Saunders et al., k
32 Habitat-specific responses to NAO: 186 present NAO is the dominant pattern of atmospheric circulation variability in the N. Atlantic region positive NAO phase = greater dry season precipitation in FL slough vegetation directly corresponds to positive NAO phase, warm AMO phase ridge vegetation is unaffected by NAO & AMO Bernhardt and Willard 29 Ecol Appl
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