Lu, S., P. Craig, C. Wallen, Z. Liu, A. Stoddard, W. McAnnally and E. Maak. Dynamic Solutions, Knoxville, TN USACOE, Sacramento District
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1 An Extended-Delta Hydrodynamic Model Framework for Sea Level Rise Analysis to Support Resource Management Planning for the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta Lu, S., P. Craig, C. Wallen, Z. Liu, A. Stoddard, W. McAnnally and E. Maak Dynamic Solutions, Knoxville, TN USACOE, Sacramento District CWEMF 2012 Folsom, CA 16 April 2012 US Army Corps of Engineers
2 Climate Change Issues Global Warming Precipitation Hydrology Water Resources Flood Protection Sea Level Rise
3 Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta 3D EFDC Model Framework Hydrodynamic, sediment and water quality model developed by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Sacramento District to provide 3D modeling tool for planning evaluations & resource management Delta Model domain includes Sacramento River (Verona)-San Joaquin River (Vernalis) Delta- Suisun Bay-Carquinez Strait Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC)
4 EFDC Model Hydrodynamics Water Quality WATERSHED RUNOFF Sediment Transport Toxics HYDRODYNAMICS water column SEDIMENT TRANSPORT Non-cohesive solids Cohesive solids deposition resuspension solids TOXIC CHEMICAL TRANSPORT & FATE Dissolved toxic Sorbed toxic deposition resuspension diffusion POC DOC CONVENTIONAL POLLUTANTS & EUTROPHICATION Carbon Nitrogen Phosphorus Oxygen Algae POC deposition resuspension diffusion SEDIMENT DIAGENESIS surface bed Solids in surface bed solids Dissolved toxic Sorbed toxic POC Carbon Nitrogen Phosphorus Oxygen burial bioturbation burial diffusion bioturbation deep bed Solids in deep bed solids Dissolved toxic Sorbed toxic burial
5 Extended-Delta EFDC Hydrodynamic Model Developed to evaluate potential impacts of Sea Level Rise on water level and salinity intrusion Domain extended to include San Pablo Bay, San Francisco Bay and Pacific Ocean 27 miles offshore to Farallon Islands Finer grid used for center deep channels in San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay
6 Extended-Delta EFDC Hydrodynamic Model Verona N=21,421 horizontal Cell Indexes cells 4 layers (Sigma Grid) Carquinez Strait Farallon Islands Vernalis Kilometers BUILDING STRONG
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8 Extended Delta EFDC Model Model Calibration (2004) Open ocean BC: water level at Point Reyes; water temperature & salinity at Farallon Is. Selected calibration results Water surface elevation Salinity 2004 calibration data used as base case for SLR scenarios
9 Water Surface Elevation (m) Water Surface Elevation Golden Gate, Oct Legend Golden Gate-Model Golden Gate-Data /01/ /08/ /15/ /22/ /29/2004 Date RMS=0.05 m; Relative RMS Error=1.6%
10 Water Surface Elevation (m) Water Surface Elevation Mallard Island (MAL) hr Filtered Jan-Dec Legend MAL-Model (24.75 hrs MA) MAL-Data (24.75 hrs MA) Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Date RMS=0.06 m; Relative RMS Error=3.6%
11 Salinity (ppt) Surface Salinity Port San Pablo (PSP) hr Filtered Jan-Dec Legend PSP-Model (Layer 4) (24.75 hrs MA) PSP-Data (24.75 hrs MA) Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Date RMS=2.3 ppt; Relative RMS Error=8.1%
12 Salinity (ppt) Bottom Salinity Mallard Island (MAL) hr Filtered Jan-Dec Legend MAL-Model (Layer 1) (24.75 hrs MA) MAL-Data (24.75 hrs MA) Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Date RMS=1.8 ppt; Relative RMS Error=9.3%
13 Extended Delta EFDC Model Sea Level Rise Analysis 3D 4-layer model-> barotropic/baroclinic flow Freshwater (Flow, T,S) and offshore open BC (T,S) from 2004 calibration (Base Case) Open BC for Water Level based on 2004 tide signal at Point Reyes + SLR (50, 100 yr) Land subsidence rate of 1.5 mm/yr defines offset in bathymetry of m for 100 yr case
14 Sea Level Rise: Historical & Projections (Rahmstorf, 2007) IPCC global mean temperature projections Uncertainty range (gray) based on global temperature rise 1.4 to 5.8 Deg-C
15 Extended Delta EFDC Model SLR Analysis (9 Cases)
16 SLR Impact Metrics Max Difference in Water Level & Depth-Avg Salinity tracked at each grid cell as [SLR Scenario Base Case] over simulation period (Jan-Dec 2004) Bottom salinity sections: Golden Gate to Sacramento; Golden Gate to Clifton Court; wet spring & dry summer conditions
17 SLR Impact on Water Level
18 0.20 m
19 0.52 m
20 1.68 m
21 1.68 m; m
22 SLR Impact on Water Level Findings Suisun Bay and South Yolo Bypass areas show largest Water Level impact from SLR Suisun Bay: largest increases during summer low flow from rivers; large shallow mud flats of marsh amplify tide signal with maximumwater Level related to low flow South Yolo Bypass: largest increase along fresh-salt water interface in wet spring season
23 SLR Impact on Salinity
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28 SLR Impact on Salinity Findings Bottom salinity increased in SF Bay and Delta by ppt; Suisun Bay, San Pablo Bay & Carquinez Strait show largest salinity impact during wet spring conditions
29 Salinity (ppt) 100 Yr,High SLR,Subsidence Flood Tide (3/1/ :00) Golden Gate to Sacramento Base 100 Year High SLR with Subsidence Suisun Bay/ Port Chicago Rio Vista Delta Cross Channel Hood Golden Gate Bridge Sacramento Distance Along Drape Line (m)
30 Salinity (ppt) 100 Yr,High SLR,Subsidence Ebb Tide (7/3/ :00) Golden Gate to Sacramento Base 100 Year High SLR with Subsidence Suisun Bay/ Port Chicago Rio Vista Delta Cross Channel Hood Golden Gate Bridge Sacramento Distance Along Drape Line (m)
31 SLR Impact on Salinity Findings Shift in bottom salinity intrusion for 2 ppt location for 100 Yr High SLR (1.68 m) with subsidence compared to Base Case: ~ 12 km for dry summer conditions/ebb tide ~ 10 km for wet spring conditions/flood tide
32 Extended Delta EFDC Model Summary Provides USACOE Sacramento District, other Federal/State agencies and Stakeholders with an advanced 3D model framework Essential tool for increased understanding of consequences of natural events and issues such as SLR for planning level evaluations Sets standard for determination of significance of project impacts
33 Discussion Contact Information: Dynamic Solutions Andrew Stoddard (540) USACE Sacramento District Gene Maak (916) US Army Corps of Engineers
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