Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update

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1 Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service U.S. Army Corps of Engineers February 7, 2019, 1:00 p.m. CST Next meeting: Thursday, March 7, 1:00 p.m. CST The views, opinions and findings contained in this report are those of the authors(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of the Army position, policy or decision, unless so designated by other official documentation.

2 WEATHER / CLIMATE OUTLOOK Mr. Doug Kluck Climatologist, Central Region Climate Services Director National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Information Kansas City, MO 2

3 Conditions Last 3 Months: November - January 3

4 Conditions Last 30 days 4

5 2018 Overall Conditions 5

6 Mountain Snowpack (snow water equivalent % of normal) 6 5

7 Plains Snowpack (February 6th, 2019) (snow water equivalent) 7

8 Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities (2/14-20/19) Precipitation Temperature 8

9 February 2019 Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities Precipitation Temperature 9

10 3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities (February - March April, 2019) Precipitation Temperature 10

11 Drought Update

12 Key Points (Summary) Current Conditions Current ENSO condition hedging on El Niño but not quite there Plains snowpack widespread, not outstanding Eastern ND & SD snowpack up to 4-6 of water Mountain snowpack mainly average (long way to go) Predictions El Niño may not officially occur this year transition to Neutral Likely continued cold basin-wide through February Leaning towards warmer than normal conditions (March-April) Precipitation into spring February leans wet basin wide (except NW Montana) Generally equal chances of above, below, near normal during March & April. Slightly better chances of above normal SW basin. 12

13 BASIN CONDITIONS / FLOOD OUTLOOK Kevin Low, P.E. Hydrologist, Missouri Basin River Forecast Center National Weather Service Pleasant Hill, MO 13

14 MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER Summary Points Mountain snowpack about normal for most of the mountainous west. The Milk River basin is below normal. We are about 60% through the accumulation period. Eastern Dakotas is the only region with appreciable plains snow. Significant flooding due to mountain snow runoff alone is not likely. Soils in the eastern half of the basin are wetter than normal. Freeze-up ice jams have already occurred (no major impacts reported). We will need to monitor for break-up jamming this Spring. Springtime flooding likely in the eastern portion of the basin this year (thunderstorm-driven flooding is typical for the southeastern portion) First official NWS Spring Flood Outlook will be issued on 21 February Building a Weather-Ready Nation

15 UPPER MISSOURI RIVER BASIN WATER MANAGEMENT UPDATE FOR 2019 John Remus, P.E., Chief U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Basin Water Management 15 12

16 UPPER BASIN RUNOFF FOR 2019 Kevin Stamm, P.E. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Basin Water Management 16 12

17 6 5 4 Missouri River Runoff above Sioux City, IA 2019 Forecast 2019 Calendar Year Forecast = 25.6 MAF Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Observed 2019 Forecast Average 17

18 Plains Snowpack February 6, 2019 Source: NOAA National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) 18

19 Inches of Water Equivalent Missouri River Basin Mountain Snowpack Water Content February 7, 2019 Total above Fort Peck O N D J F M A M J J A S Inches of Water Equivalent % of average 90% of average Total Fort Peck to Garrison O N D J F M A M J J A S Ave Ave Normally by February 1, about 64% of the peak mountain SWE has occurred in both reaches. 19

20 RESERVOIR SYSTEM REGULATION Joel Knofczynski, P.E. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Basin Water Management 20

21 MISSOURI RIVER MAINSTEM SYSTEM STORAGE ZONES AND ALLOCATIONS Exclusive Flood Control 6% Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 16% Historic max Feb 7, Storage In MAF* Current Storage Carryover Multiple Use 53% Historic min *Storages updated in August 2013 based on reservoir surveys. Permanent Pool 25%

22 CURRENT RESERVOIR LEVELS FEB 7, 2019 Fort Peck Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & 2234 Multiple Use Elevation in feet msl Garrison Elevation in feet msl Carryover Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use Permanent Pool 1.6 feet above base of Flood Control zone Permanent Pool 1.2 feet above base of Flood Control zone Oahe Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use Elevation in feet msl Fort Randall Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use Elevation in feet msl Permanent Pool 1.6 feet below base of Flood Control zone Permanent Pool 4.1 feet below base of Flood Control zone

23 KEY POINTS Currently, all 16.3 MAF of flood storage space is available. Full navigation season. Full service flow support to start the season. Annual power production of 9.7B kwh. (average is 9.3B kwh) Good service to all authorized purposes. 23

24

25 MARCH S UPDATE Thursday, March 7, :00 pm CST 25

26 CONTACT INFORMATION Name Office Address Phone Number Eileen Williamson Doug Kluck Kevin Low John Remus Kevin Stamm Joel Knofczynski USACE, NWD Public Affairs Office NOAA, Kansas City, Climatologist National Weather Service, Hydrologist USACE, Chief, Missouri River Basin Water Management USACE, MRBWM, Hydraulic Engineer USACE, MRBWM, Hydraulic Engineer

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