National Integrated Drought Information System. Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin 20-March-2012

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1 National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin 20-March-2012

2 Current drought status from Drought Monitor

3 Cumulative Rainfall Deficits Past 30 days Past 180 days

4 7-day Rainfall Totals

5 Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Previous Month: Current:

6 Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Previous month: Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current:

7 Lake Lanier Inflows Chestatee near Dahlonega ( ) Chattahoochee near Cornelia ( )

8 Lake Lanier Levels ( ) for Previous 60 Days

9 Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at West Point ( ) Flint at Bainbridge ( )

10 Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee ( )

11 Groundwater Status Miller County, GA (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

12 USACE ACF Reservoir Forecasts (March 2012) Water Management USACE, Mobile District

13 Elevation in FT NGVD Lanier Action Zones and Actual 2012 Elevations Top of Conservation Zone Zone 2 Zone Zone Record Low Elevations Actual data thru March 19, Actual Elevation Forecast Elevation Historical Average Elevation Record Low Elevation (1960- Bottom of Conservation 2011) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

14 Elevation in FT MSL West Point Action Zones and Actual 2012 Elevations Top of Conservation Zone Zone 4 Zone 3 Zone Actual data thru March 19, Actual Elevation Forecast Elevation Historical Average Elevation Bottom of Conservation Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

15 Elevation in FT MSL W.F. George Action Zones and Actual 2012 Elevations Top of Conservation Zone 2 Zone Zone Zone Actual data thru March 19, Actual Elevation Forecast Elevation Historical Average Elevation Bottom of Conservation 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

16 78.50 Elevation in FT NGVD Jim Woodruff Actual & Projected 2012 Elevations Maximum Operating Level Actual data thru March 19, Actual Elevation Forecast Elevation Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1- Nov 1-Dec

17 Composite Conservation & Flood Storage, (ac-ft) 2012 ACF Basin Composite Conservation & Flood Storage 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 Top of Conservation Composite Zone 1 Composite Zone 2 Composite Zone 3 Composite Zone 4 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, ,000 Drought Zone 800, , , ,000 George Conservation West Point Conservation Lake Lanier Conservation George Flood Storage West Point Flood Storage Lake Lanier Flood Storage 600, , ,000-1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 0 Actual data through Add value of 1,856,000 acre-ft to include inactive storage.

18 5-Day Precipitation Forecast

19 Precipitation Outlook (3-7 days)

20 Temp and Precip Outlook (8-14 days) 8-14 day Temperature Outlook 8-14 day Precip

21 7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies

22 El Niño forecast

23 La Niña Composites March June

24 Precipitation Outlook 1-month 3-month (AMJ)

25 Temperature Outlook 3-month (AMJ)

26 U.S. Drought Outlook

27 Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg Lovejoy Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal West Point Columbus Carsonville WF George Albany Columbus Woodruff Blountstown

28 15% 18% 67% Lake Lanier Inflows 8% 8% Above Normal Near Normal 84% West Point Whitesburg 21% 51% 28% Lovejoy Carsonville Below Normal Columbus 5% WF George 27% 68% Albany Columbus Woodruff 7% 18% 75% Blountstown

29 Summary Rains during the past 7 days have totaled less than 0.5 inches for most of the basin, with only the northern tip receiving more than 1.5 inches Drought conditions persist through most of the basin, with exceptional and extreme drought in the coastal plain and less severe drought in the panhandle and above the fall line Streamflows have recovered to normal or 10 to 24% of normal levels in the northern part of the basin, but remain very low to the south Lake Lanier levels are at the bottom of action zone 3, but is projected to increase to the top of zone 3 by mid April Composite storage for the basin is near the top of action zone 2, but only West Point has any flood storage

30 Summary La Niña conditions have diminished and the forecast is for neutral conditions to continue through December We should keep in mind, however, that there is a small probability that La Niña will return The near term precipitation outlook is for heavy rain on the western portion of the basin and continuing severe drought for the eastern part One- to three-month outlooks suggest persistent drought and above normal temperatures throughout the basin Streamflow forecasts are for 50 to 85% probabilities of below normal levels for the next three months

31 References Speakers Pam Knox, UGA Brian McCallum, USGS Bailey Crane, US ACE Jeffry Dobur, SERFC Moderator Keith Ingram, SECC/UF Additional information General drought information General climate and El Niño information Streamflow monitoring Groundwater monitoring

32 Next Briefings Every 3 weeks 10 April 1 May 22 May

33 Thanks!

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