Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update

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1 Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service U.S. Army Corps of Engineers March 7, 2019, 1:00 p.m. CST Next meeting: Spring Public Meetings (April 9-11) The views, opinions and findings contained in this report are those of the authors(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of the Army position, policy or decision, unless so designated by other official documentation.

2 Climate Summary and Outlook for the Missouri Basin Doug Kluck Regional Climate Services Director NOAA s National Centers for Environmental Information NOAA Satellite and Information Service National Centers for Environmental Information 2

3 Conditions Last 90 days 3

4 Conditions Last 30 days 4

5 Soil Moisture 5

6 Mountain Snowpack (snow water equivalent % of normal) 5 6

7 Plains Snowpack (March 6th, 2019) (snow water equivalent) 7

8 Outlooks 8

9 Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities (March 14-20) Precipitation Temperature 9

10 March 2019 Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities Precipitation Temperature 10

11 3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities (March April May, 2019) Precipitation Temperature 11

12 3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities (April May June, 2019) Precipitation Temperature 12

13 Drought Update

14 Summary Current Conditions Current ENSO condition El Niño Advisory (through spring) Some indication of El Niño possibly hanging on Decent plains snowpack widespread Eastern ND & SD snowpack up to of water Mountain snowpack mainly average to above average Soil moisture tending to be wetter than normal Predictions Temperatures likely continued below normal basin-wide through March Mainly equal chances of below/normal/above temps (March-April) Precipitation likely to lean towards normal to wetter conditions in March lower basin with generally equal chances upper basin For March-May equal chances of above, below, near normal most of basin. Slightly better chances of above normal southern and SW portions of the basin. 14

15 Thank You Monthly Climate and Drought Summary and Outlook Webinar Series (3 rd Thursday of each month) for the North Central U.S. Next one will be March 21 st at 1pm (Becky Bollinger, Colorado State Climate Office) Or me for the information 15

16 BASIN CONDITIONS / FLOOD OUTLOOK Kevin Low, P.E. Hydrologist, Missouri Basin River Forecast Center National Weather Service Pleasant Hill, MO 16

17 MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER Summary Points Mountain snowpack about normal for the mountainous west. We are about 80% through the accumulation period. Significant flooding due to mountain snowmelt alone is not likely. Appreciable plains snowpack exists across the northern-eastern boundary of the Missouri River basin. Plains soils are wetter than normal, and they are frozen. Enhanced flood risk exists for the eastern portion of the Missouri River basin. Major flooding is expected on many tributaries. Freeze-up ice jams have already occurred (no major impacts reported). Break-up ice jam flooding is almost a certainty (given late season plains snowmelt and springtime rains). Springtime flooding in the lower third of the basin is typically driven by thunderstorm activity. NWS Spring Flood Outlook (including slides) available at: 17 Building a Weather-Ready Nation

18 UPPER BASIN RUNOFF FOR 2019 Kevin Stamm, P.E. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Basin Water Management 18 12

19 6 5 4 Missouri River Runoff above Sioux City, IA 2019 Forecast 2019 Calendar Year Forecast = 28.4 MAF Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Observed 2019 Forecast Average 19

20 Plains Snowpack 4-6 inches of SWE March 7, 2019 Source: NOAA National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) 20

21 Soil Moisture Source: NLDAS Soil Moisture, 21

22 4 4-6 inches of SWE 22

23 Inches of Water Equivalent Missouri River Basin Mountain Snowpack Water Content March 7, 2019 Total above Fort Peck O N D J F M A M J J A S Month Ave Inches of Water Equivalent % of average 103% of average Normally by March 1, about 80% of the peak mountain SWE has occurred in both reaches. 23 Total Fort Peck to Garrison O N D J F M A M J J A S Month Ave

24 RESERVOIR SYSTEM REGULATION Ryan Larsen, P.E. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Basin Water Management 24

25 MISSOURI RIVER MAINSTEM SYSTEM STORAGE ZONES AND ALLOCATIONS Exclusive Flood Control 6% Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 16% Historic max Current Storage 56.1 MAF Mar 7, Storage In MAF* Carryover Multiple Use 53% Historic min *Storages updated in August 2013 based on reservoir surveys. Permanent Pool 25%

26 CURRENT RESERVOIR LEVELS MAR 7, 2019 Fort Peck Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Elevation in feet msl Garrison Elevation in feet msl Carryover Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use Permanent Pool 0.3 foot above base of Flood Control zone Permanent Pool 0.3 foot below base of Flood Control zone Oahe Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Elevation in feet msl Fort Randall Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Elevation in feet msl Carryover Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use Permanent Pool 0.4 foot below base of Flood Control zone Permanent Pool 1.1 foot above base of Flood Control zone

27 KEY POINTS Currently, all 16.3 MAF of flood storage space is available. Full navigation season. Full service flow support to start the season. Annual power production of 10.0B kwh. (average is 9.4B kwh) Good service to all authorized purposes. 27

28 28

29 APRIL S UPDATE Public Meetings April 9-11 April 9: Fort Peck, MT and Bismarck, ND April 10: Pierre, SD and Sioux City, IA April 11: Smithville, MO and Nebraska City, NE MAY S UPDATE Tuesday, May 7, :00 pm CST 29

30 CONTACT INFORMATION Name Office Address Phone Number Eileen Williamson Doug Kluck Kevin Low John Remus Kevin Stamm Ryan Larsen USACE, NWD Public Affairs Office NOAA, Kansas City, Climatologist National Weather Service, Hydrologist USACE, Chief, Missouri River Basin Water Management USACE, MRBWM, Hydraulic Engineer USACE, MRBWM, Hydraulic Engineer

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