Midwest and Great Plains Climate- Drought Outlook 21 August 2014

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1 Midwest and Great Plains Climate- Drought Outlook 21 August 2014 Dr. Jeff Andresen State Climatologist Michigan State University Flooding along I-696 in Warren, MI 11 AUG 2014 Photo courtesy of NBC News

2 General Information Providing climate services to the Central Region Collaboration Activity Between: State Climatologists Doug Kluck & John Eise (NOAA/NWS) American Association of State Climatologists Midwest and High Plains Regional Climate Centers National Drought Mitigation Center/USDA Access to Future Climate Webinars and Information Operator Assistance for questions at the end

3 Agenda Current Conditions Impacts Flooding Agriculture Outlooks El Niño

4 Review/Current Conditions

5 July Temperatures Much cooler than normal regionwide

6 July Temperatures

7 July Temperatures Temperature anomalies were strongly linked with the mean upper air pattern

8 November July Temperatures Surpluses west, east, deficits north, south

9 July Precipitation Totals Most of Midwest turned drier

10 Total Growing Season Precipitation Seasonal surpluses N, NE, deficits SW

11 Impacts

12 Total Growing Season GDDs Surpluses west, east, deficits north, south

13 Cooling Degree Day Accumulations Deficits most areas, lower electricity bills

14 Soil Moisture status Deficits have developed in recent weeks across central and other parts of the region Soil Moisture Anomaly in millimeters

15 Soil Moisture status

16 Impacts Agriculture

17 Crop Progress and Condition: Corn

18 Crop Progress and Condition: Soybean

19 Cool, Wet Growing Seasons and Midwestern Crop Yields High corn and soybean yields in the Midwest are strongly linked with cooler and wetter than normal growing seasons

20 Ag summary Crop conditions across much of the region are good to excellent with high potential yields Crops progressed through sensitive reproductive stages with adequate soil moisture Crops generally progressing at or near normal rates of development except northern sections where they lag behind normal Growing concern about late planted crops reaching maturity prior to first killing freeze across northern sections

21 Impacts Regional Flooding

22 Flooding issues A slow-moving frontal boundary led to heavy rainfall and flooding across sections of Missouri during the first week of August, leading to several days of flash flooding. Near 15 inches of rain was recorded in Waynesville, MO in a twoday period, with one-day totals of 6 inches or more were common across the width of the southern part of Missouri. The communities of Branson and Hoillister, MO were especially hard hit, necessitating waterborne rescues. A series of training thunderstorms brought 3-6 inches in less than 12 hours resulting in widespread flooding across SE Lower Michigan on the 11 th. Preliminary damage estimates are in excess of $500M. Deroit Free Press

23 Flood Event of August 11 th, 2014 Image courtesy of Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM)

24 Outlooks

25 Forecast Upper Air Flow Aug and Aug 28- Sep 3, 2014

26 Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities for August 2014 Temperature Precipitation

27 Tropical Influences? Latest forecast guidance suggests an increase in tropical cyclone activity in the vicinity of the southern USA, including the NW Atlantic Basin

28 September Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities Temperature Precipitation

29 El Nino Development?

30 Updated: 10 August 2014 CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook While it has decreased relative to previous outlooks, the forecast chance of El Niño remains at about 65% during the No. Hemisphere fall and early winter.

31 3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities (September - November) Temperature Precipitation

32 Drought Outlook through 30 Nov.

33 Crop Maturity Before First Frost? Source: GDD.AgClimate4U.org

34 Winter Outlook (December 2014 February 2015) Temperature Precipitation

35 Summary - Conditions Generally cooler than average across much of the region, although hot weather has developed recently across sections of the region Overall, seasonal precipitation surpluses continue across most of the region, but some areas have become dry in recent weeks Crops generally in good to excellent condition

36 Summary - Outlooks Warmer next several days, then average to cooler more likely by first week of September. Wetter than normal conditions likely regionwide through early September Increasing concern for late planted crops reaching maturity prior to first freeze across northern sections Cooler and wetter than normal across central Great Plains during the fall El Nino still likely warmer and drier than normal conditions possible across much of the region during the upcoming winter

37 Further Information - Partners Today s and Past Recorded Presentations and : NOAA s National Climatic Data Center: Monthly climate reports (U.S. & Global): NOAA s Climate Prediction Center: Climate Portal: U.S. Drought Portal: National Drought Mitigation Center: State climatologists Regional climate centers

38 Thank You and Questions? Questions: Climate: Jeff Andresen: Dennis Todey: Doug Kluck: John Eise: Mike Timlin: Natalie Umphlett: ; Brian Fuchs: Weather: Winnipeg, MB 2013/2014 Snow Removal Pile, 15 AUG 2014

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