What Does It Take to Get Out of Drought?

Transcription

1 What Does It Take to Get Out of Drought? Nolan J. Doesken Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Presented at the Insects, Diseases and Drought Workshop, May 19, 2004, Centennial, Colorado Prepared by Odie Bliss

2 Denver Skyline

3 Average Denver Denver Monthly Average Temperatures ( ) Temperature (degrees F) Mean Max Temperature (F) Mean Min. Temperature (F) 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

4 Average Denver Denver Monthly Average Precipitation 2.5 ( Averages) 2.0 Precipitation (inches) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Month

5 Monthly Average Precipitation for Selected Sites in the South Platte Basin Hoosier Pass Evergreen Denver Stapleton Brighton Sterling Precipitation (inches) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Month

6 Long-Term Perspective

7 Colorado Average Precipitation

8 3-Month SPI Through 1999

9 48-Month SPI Through 1999

10 Denver Stapleton Annual Precipitation ( ) Year Precipitation (inches)

11 Statewide Annual Precipitation History

12 Statewide Mean Annual Temperature History

13 Recent Perspective Photo: Barr Lake northeast of Denver, Colorado, October 2002 (Ken Dewey, High Plains Regional Climate Center)

14 1999 Water Year Precipitation

15 2000 Water Year Precipitation

16 2001 Water Year Precipitation

17 2002 Water Year Precipitation

18 2003 Water Year Precipitation

19 WY2002 Temperature Departures Water Year 2002 Departure from average, degree F Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Eastern Plains Foothills Mountains Western Valleys

20 WY2003 Temperature Departures Departure from average, degree F Water Year 2003 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Eastern Plains Foothills Mountains Western Valleys

21 Where We Stand Now Denver Water Department SPRING/SUMMER WATERING SCHEDULE (Effective May 1, 2004) Watering Schedule Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Even Address Single- Family Residence NO Watering See exception s below - Home Owners Assoc - Apartments - Businesses - Government Odd Address Single- Family Residence Even Address Single- Family Residence - Home Owners Assoc - Apartments - Businesses - Government Odd Address Single-Family Residence 2004 Spring/Summer Water Use Rules

22 Mar 04 Apr 04 Feb Daily Temperatures for Denver Stapleton for May 2003 through April 2004 Tmax Tmin June 03 July 03 Aug 03 Sep 03 Oct 03 Nov 03 Dec 03 Jan 04 May 03 Temperature (degrees F)

23 100 Denver Monthly Accumulated Precipitation for October 1998 through April 2004 Monthly Precip Accum Average Precip ( ) 90 Precipitation (inches)

24 WY2004 Temperature Departures Water Year Departure from average, degree F Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Eastern Plains Foothills Mountains Western Valleys

25 Water Year Precipitation map

26 Feb/Mar 2004 precipitation map

27 Hoosier Pass

28 University Camp

29

30 Reservoir Levels Colorado Statewide Reservoir Levels on October 1st for Years and May 1, Percent of Average Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct May

31 What Comes Next?

32 Positive Indicators Late winter snows Cool spring Multi-day precipitation Wet Snow Low intensity rainfall Light winds High humidity Abundant cloud cover

33 Negative Indicators Little late winter snow Missed opportunities Warm spring Brief, sporadic precipitation High intensity rainfall Frequent, strong winds Low humidity Abundant sunshine

34 Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)

35 El Nino Forecast

36 Temperature May July 2004 From the Colorado Prediction Center

37 Precipitation May July 2004 From the Colorado Prediction Center

38 Temperature June August 2004 From the Colorado Prediction Center

39 Precipitation June August 2004 From the Colorado Prediction Center

40

41 What Can We Do About It?

42 CoCo RaHS Community Collaborative Rain and Hail Study YOU CAN HELP! Funding provided by

43 CoCo RaHS Precipitation Map for April 8, 2004

44 CoCo RaHS Precipitation Map for May 13, 2004

45 CoCo RaHS Precipitation Map for August 31, 2003

46 Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloading click on Drought then click on Presentations