Long-term Precipitation Trends in Colorado. Nolan Doesken Colorado State Climatologist Presented: Friday, December 12, 2008

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1 Long-term Precipitation Trends in Colorado Nolan Doesken Colorado State Climatologist Presented: Friday, December 12, 28

2 Colorado Mean Annual Precipitation (1971-2)

3 Of All Our Climate Observing Stations

4 Precipitation (in) Colorado Statewide Water Year (Oct-Sept) Precipitation Colorado Statewide Water Year Precipitation (Oct-Sept) from Year

5 Only a Few Have Excellent Long-Term Records

6 Best Long Term Precipitation Time Series

7 Precipitation (in) Fort Collins Fort Collins Water Year Precipitation with 3 year moving average Water Year 3 year moving average 9 year moving average Year

8 Precipitation (in) Kassler Kassler Water Year Precipitation with 3 year moving average 3 Water Year 3 year moving average 25 9 year moving average Year

9 Precipitation (in) Byers Byers water year precipitation with 9 and 3 year moving averages 25 Water Year 3 year moving average 9 year moving average Year

10 Precipiation (in) Grand Lake 1NW Grand Lake 1NW water year precipitation with 3 year moving average 4 35 Water Year 3 year moving average 9 year moving average Year

11 Precipitation (in) Grand Lake 6SSW Grand Lake 6SSW water year precipitation with 9 adn 3 year moving averages 25 Water Year 3 year moving average 9 year moving average Year

12 Precipitation (in) Hayden Hayden water year precipitation with 9 and 3 year moving averages 3 25 Water Year 3 year moving average 9 year moving average Year

13 Precipitation (in) Montrose #2 Montrose #2 water year precipitation with 3 year moving average Water Year 3 year moving average 9 year moving average Year

14 Precipitation (in) Cochetopa Creek Cochetopa Creek water year precipitation with 3 year moving average Water Year 3 year moving average 9 year moving average Year

15 Precipitation (in) Mesa Verde Mesa Verde water year precipitation with 3 year average 35 Water Year 3 3 year moving average 9 year moving average Year

16 Precipitation (in) Del Norte Del Norte water year precipitation with 9 and 3 year moving averages Water Year 3 year moving average 9 year moving average Year

17 Precipitation (in) Trinidad City Trinidad City water year precipitation with 3 year moving average Water Year 3 year moving average 9 year moving average Year

18 Precipitation (in) Cheyenne Wells Cheyenne Wells water year precipitation with 3 year moving average Water Year 3 year moving average 9 year moving average Year

19 Precipitation (in) Rocky Ford Rocky Ford water year precipitation with 9 and 3 year moving averages Water Year 3 year moving average 9 year moving average Year

20 Precipitation (in) Akron 4E Akron 4E water year precipitation with 9 and 3 year moving average Water Year 3 year moving average 9 year moving average Year

21 What is normal precipitation and how does it relate to the recent past?

22 Average Precipitation (in) Fort Collins Fort Collins 3 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2-28 average 3 3 year Normal (1971-2) WY 2-8 Average Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Month

23 Precipitation (in) Kassler Kassler 3 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2-28 Average 3 3 year normal (1971-2) 2.5 WY 2-8 Average Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Month

24 Precipitation (in) Byers Byers 3 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2-28 averages 3 3 year normal (1971-2) WY 2-28 average Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Month

25 Precipitation (in) Grand Lake 1NW Grand Lake 1NW 3 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2-28 average 3 3 year normal (1971-2) WY 2-28 average Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Month

26 Precipitation (in) Grand Lake 6SSW Grand Lake 6SSW 3 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2-28 averages year normal (1971-2) WY 2-28 average Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Month

27 Precipitation (in) Hayden Hayden 3 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2-28 averages year normal (1971-2) WY Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Month

28 Precipitation (in) Montrose #2 Montrose #2 3 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2-28 average year normal (1971-2) WY 2-28 average Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Month

29 Precipitation (in) Cochetopa Creek Cochetopa Creek 3 year normal precipitation vs. WY year normal (1971-2) WY 2-28 average Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Month

30 Precipitation (in) Mesa Verde Mesa Verde 3 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2-28 average year normal (1971-2) WY 2-28 averages Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Month

31 Precipitation (in) Del Norte Del Norte 3 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2-28 averages year normal (1971-2) WY 2-28 average Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Month

32 Precipitation (in) Trinidad City Trinidad City 3 year normal precipitation vs. water year 2-28 average 3 3 year normal (1971-2) WY 2-28 Average Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Month

33 Precipitation (in) Cheyenne Wells Cheyenne Wells 3 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2-28 average year normal (1971-2) WY 2-28 Average Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Month

34 Precipitation (in) Rocky Ford Rocky Ford 3 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2-28 averages year normal (1971-2) WY Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Month

35 Akron 4E Akron 4E 3 year normal precipitation vs. WY 2-28 average year normal (1971-2) Average WY Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

36 Colorado Snotel Sites Assessment of long term April 1 st SWE provides information on long term winter precipitation trends.

37 SWE (in) University Camp (1,3 ) Universtiy Camp, CO (Elevation 1,3') April 1 SWE (in) Snow Course April 1 SWE (in) Snotel April 1 SWE (in)

38 SWE (in) Dry Lake (8,4 ) Dry Lake, CO (Elevation 8,4') April 1 SWE Snow Course April 1 SWE (in) Snotel April 1 SWE (in)

39 SWE (in) Independence Pass (1,6 ) Pass, CO (Elevation 1,6') April 1 SWE Snow Course April 1 SWE (in) Snotel April 1 SWE (in)

40 SWE (in) Porphyry Creek (1,76 ) Creek, CO (Elevation 1,76') April 1 SWE (in) Snow Course April 1 SWE (in) Snotel April 1 SWE (in)

41 SWE (in) Upper San Juan (1,2 ) San Juan, CO (Elevation 1,2') April 1 SWE (in) 7 6 Snow Course April 1 SWE (in) Snotel April 1 SWE (in)

42 What is the frequency of drought?

43 Fraction (in percent) Fraction of Colorado in Drought Based on 3 month SPI (189 - August 28) Year

44 Fraction (in percent) Fraction of Colorado in Drought Based on 48 month SPI (189 - August 28) Year

45 Evaporation (In) John Martin Dam May through Sept Pan Evaporation

46 Tracking Evapotranspiration

47 Reference ET (in) Seasonal (May-Sept.) Alfalfa Reference ET Tracking and understanding ET trends allows for more efficient water use planning SW Colorado Seasonal ET (May-Sept) Cortez Dove Creek Towaoc Yellow Jacket Mean

48 Cumulative ET (in) Cumulative ET (in) Seasonal Reference ET Time Series Republican River Basin Seasonal Reference ET (May-Sept) Burlington N Burlington S Haxtun Idalia Kirk Wray Yuma 2 Mean Arkansas Valley Seasonal Reference ET (May-Sept) Avondale Fowler Holly 1 Hoehne Lamar 1 Lamar 2 7 Lamar 3 Las Animas CSU Rocky Ford Vineland Mean

49 Reference ET (in) Reference ET (in) Seasonal Reference ET Time Series San Luis Valley Seasonal ET (May-Sept) Blanca Center 1 Center 2 San Luis Mean Western Slope Seasonal ET (May-Sept) Delta Fruita Grand Junction Hotchkiss Olathe Mean

50 CoAgMet and NCWCD CoAgMet s results were compared to a similar weather network in Northern Colorado The Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District (NCWCD) weather station network is a gold standard for ET comparison due to their high standards for siting, maintenance, and calibration

51 Cumulative ET(in) NCWCD versus CoAgMet: North Central Region CoAgMet and NCWCD North Central Seasonal ET (May-Sept) 65. Eaton Fort Collins East Gilcrest Johnsons Corner Longmong South Ault Briggsdale Eastern Adams County Fort Collins AERC Fort Collins ARDEC Fort Lupton Greeley Lucerne Peckham Mean

52 Cumulative ET(in) NCWCD and CoAgMet: Lower South Platte Region CoAgMet and NCWCD Lower S Platte Seasonal ET (May-Sept) Brush Crook Ovid Wiggins Sterling Fort Morgan Holyoke 65. Kersey Paoli Wiggins 1 Wiggins 2 Yuma 2 Mean

53 Coming Soon: Climate Trends Website Access Colorado long-term station data and station history Generate and download graph images Customizable data frequency for graphing (monthly, water year, calendar year, etc)

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