Climate Change and Water Supply Research. Drought Response Workshop October 8, 2013

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Climate Change and Water Supply Research. Drought Response Workshop October 8, 2013"

Abel Johnson
5 years ago
Views:

1 Climate Change and Water Supply Research Drought Response Workshop October 8, 2013 DWR Photo Oroville Reservoir, 2009

2 Talk Overview Expectations History Atmospheric Rivers and Water Supply Current Research Next Steps

3 Slide from Jamie Anderson DWR- Bay Delta Ecosystem Changes

4 Year to Year Precipitation Variability Std Dev of Annual Precipitation Mean Annual Precipitation California precipitation is uniquely variable Dettinger et al, 2011

5 Storms and California Water Supply Just a few storms each year are the core of California s water supplies Dettinger et al, 2011

6 Precipitation (Inches) Northern Sierra 8 Station Index Monthly precipitation, Water Year inches Annual Average: 50 inches Maximum Year (1983): 88.5 inches Minimum Year (1924): 17.1 inches Period of Record Present Average of: Mt. Shasta City Shasta Dam Mineral Brush Creek RS Quincy Sierraville RS Pacific House Blue Canyon

Northern Sierra 8 Station Index 10 8 6 Lower elevation mountains 4 2 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Monthly precipitation, inches Jul Aug Sep DJF Average: 27 inches Maximum Month (Dec.

7 Northern Sierra 8 Station Index Lower elevation mountains Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Monthly precipitation, inches Jul Aug Sep DJF Average: 27 inches Maximum Month (Dec. 1955): inches Minimum Month (45 instances): 0 inches Period of Record Present Average of: Mt. Shasta City Shasta Dam Mineral Brush Creek RS Quincy Sierraville RS Pacific House Blue Canyon

8 21 st Century Breakdown So Far 8 Station Index Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Period of Record

9 21 st Century Breakdown So Far 8 Station Index POR Average: 50 inches : 53 inches 21 st Century: 50 inches Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Period of Record st Century

10 Sacramento River Runoff Distributions (Million Acre-Feet) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Period of Record st Century

11 Decadal Scale Variability Los Angeles County Sonoma Mendocino 8 Station Index 5 Station Index

12 Decadal Scale Variability 8 Station Index Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep POR PDO+ PDO-

13 Storms and California Water Supply Just a few storms each year are the core of California s water supplies Dettinger et al, 2011

Key Phenomena Affecting California Water Supply/Flooding: Storm Track changes Cyclogensis L Flooding & water supply MJO/Tropical Convection

14 Key Phenomena Affecting California Water Supply/Flooding: Storm Track changes Cyclogensis L Flooding & water supply MJO/Tropical Convection Easterly Wave ENSO CA storms are a product of the alignment of several key processes operating at multiple space and time scales Slide adapted from M. Ralph

The Storm of 4-5 Jan 2008 L 32 ft waves Atmospheric river GOES IR image of major West Coast storm Time = 0030 UTC 5 January 2008 Low pressure center is off WA coast 6-10 ft snow 7-13 in rain Note

15 The Storm of 4-5 Jan 2008 L 32 ft waves Atmospheric river GOES IR image of major West Coast storm Time = 0030 UTC 5 January 2008 Low pressure center is off WA coast 6-10 ft snow 7-13 in rain Note that major impacts were focused >500 miles south of the Low pressure center in this storm. Many major impacts are associated with the landfall of the atmospheric river element of the storm, the precise characteristics of which have not been operationally monitored offshore or onshore. Slide from M. Ralph

17 11/28/12 12:15 pm

18 11/28/12 11:35 am

19 2013 Example ARE 1: 15.5 inches in 8 days (33% of WY total) ARE 1 ARE 2 ARE 2: 6 inches SWE in 5 days (32% of WY total)

LARGEST 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS, 1950-2008 Primarily due to Atmospheric

Dettinger, 2012: Historical and national perspectives on extreme West

20 LARGEST 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS, Primarily due to Atmospheric River events Ralph, F. M., and M. D. Dettinger, 2012: Historical and national perspectives on extreme West Coast precipitation associated with atmospheric rivers during December Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93,

21 Current Research Advancements in monitoring atmospheric river conditions and tracking change Exploring role of remote sensing for monitoring Begun exploring characteristics of past, present, and future atmospheric rivers Begun exploration of decadal variability and change

22 Next Steps Targeted opportunities in monitoring Develop tools and indicators to track change and facilitate planning efforts Improve understanding of variability across time scales Increase understanding of physical processes to improve capacity execute integrated water management in a changing climate

23 Questions?

El Niño, Climate Change and Water Supply Variability

El Niño, Climate Change and Water Supply Variability Talk Overview El Niño and California California Climate Variability and Change Water Management in the Face of Change California s topography affects