El Niño, Climate Change and Water Supply Variability

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1 El Niño, Climate Change and Water Supply Variability

2 Talk Overview El Niño and California California Climate Variability and Change Water Management in the Face of Change

3 California s topography affects our weather and climate and is central to our water resources management

4 Niño Region SST Departures ( o C) Recent Evolution The latest weekly SST departures are: Niño 4 Niño 3.4 Niño 3 Niño ºC 2.4ºC 2.8ºC 2.8ºC

5 SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast (PDF corrected) Issued: 2 October 2015 The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts El Niño through MAM Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ ?

6 From NWS Sacramento Historical Strong El Nino Outcomes 48.4 DJFM 8SI % April SWE 83% 148% 25.3 F 22.5 F 23.5 F Winter Sierra Tmin avg 9.13 San Diego DJFM % 60% 26.4 F 27.6 F % 26.6 F % 32.1 F

7

8 California s precipitation is uniquely variable Std Dev of Annual Precipitation Mean Annual Precipitation Higher values are higher variability Source: Dettinger et al (2011)

9 Storms and California Water Supply Just a few storms each year are the core of California s water supplies Dettinger et al, 2011

10 Decadal scale precipitation variability tied to Atmospheric River landfall variability Source: Dettinger and Cayan (2014)

11 NOAA Climate Division 2 Calendar Year Data Annual Precipitation (inches) Record warmth 2015? Record dry Annual Average Temperature (deg F) st Century POR Average Source: NOAA Climate Division 2 Calendar Year Data

12 NOAA Climate Division 6 Calendar Year Data Record warmth ? PORAverage Source: NOAA Climate Division 2 Calendar Year Data

13

14 Temperature Data from California Climate Tracker, WRCC April 1 Snowpack Percent of Average From California Cooperative Snow Surveys Sierra Snowpack vs Winter Temperature Years Below 50% Sierra Region Sierra Winter (DJF) Average Minimum Temperature (degrees Fahrenheit)

15 Northern Sierra 8 Station Index Lower elevation mountains Annual Average: 50 inches Maximum Year (1983): 88.5 inches Minimum Year (1924): 17.1 inches Period of Record Present Pineapple Express Source: CNAP RISA Average of: Mt. Shasta City Shasta Dam Mineral Brush Creek RS Quincy Sierraville RS Pacific House Blue Canyon

16 Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation Accumulation 1/3 of northern Sierra snowpack fell in 7 days Days 1/3 of WY total fell in 7 days 8.4 in 14 days

17 Satellite Observation of Water Vapor Atmospheric River North America

18 Flux Magnitude and Duration are Key Angle of Impact Important

19 The Storm of 4-5 Jan 2008 Note that major impacts were focused >500 miles south of the Low pressure center in this storm. L 32 ft waves Atmospheric river GOES IR image of major West Coast storm Time = 0030 UTC 5 January 2008 Low pressure center is off WA coast 6-10 ft snow 7-13 in rain This differs significantly from hurricanes, but the impacts are enormous and spread over a large area Many major impacts are associated with the landfall of the atmospheric river element of the storm. Slide from M. Ralph

20 Key Phenomena Affecting California Water Supply/Flooding: Polar Processes Storm Track changes Cyclogensis L Flooding & water supply MJO/Tropical Convection Easterly Wave ENSO The size, number, and strength of atmospheric river events (ARs) result from the alignment of key processes

21

22 ARs, California Water and Change Flux, Duration, Direction, and Spatial Extent of Storm play roles in how much water goes where Antecedent watershed conditions important to runoff response and impacts Number, timing, and character of storms important to seasonal accumulation of precipitation and snowpack Ocean, Atmosphere, and Land Surface Processes play important roles and will evolve as climate changes

23 Final Thoughts A warmer world will likely involve more variability and stronger pulses of water input to California (floods within droughts possible) The ability to manage water will increasingly rely on ability to forecast events and manage projects and systems nimbly in real-time Seasonal forecasting offers opportunity to set expectations for water management and possibly more as warming continues

24 Questions?

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