APR-SEP. Forecast Are in KAF % Average 10 % 30 Year. Forecast Period

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1 Water Supply Forecast - THE DALLES file://v:\nwrfc_forecast\2013\tdao3\04-05.html Page 1 of 1 4/8/2013 Header for Water Supply Information Page Close Archive Data/Normals Rankings Adjustments Verification Verify All Years Help Loading... (TDAO3) THE DALLES Forecasts for Water Year 2013 APR-SEP Link to image of plot Ensemble Date: Issue Date: Official Forecast with 10 days of QPF Forecast Period 90 % 50 % Forecast Are in KAF % 10 % 30 Year APR-SEP APR-JUL APR-AUG JAN-JUL with 3 days of QPF APR-SEP APR-JUL APR-AUG JAN-JUL with 0 days of QPF APR-SEP APR-JUL APR-AUG JAN-JUL Move the mouse over the desired "Forecast Period" to display a graph. Overlay ESP10 ESP3 ESP0 Data Files Zoomout CSV (ESP10 / APR-SEP) Max Scale Scale To Data Scale To Last 45 Days Note: Compatible with the latest browsers (Chrome, Firefox, Safari, and Internet Explorer (ie9+)).

2 Water Supply Forecast - LOWER GRANITE DAM file://v:\nwrfc_forecast\2013\lgdw1\04-05.html Page 1 of 1 4/8/2013 Header for Water Supply Information Page Close Archive Data/Normals Rankings Adjustments Verification Verify All Years Help Loading... (LGDW1) LOWER GRANITE DAM Forecasts for Water Year 2013 APR-SEP Link to image of plot Ensemble Date: Issue Date: Official Forecast with 10 days of QPF Forecast Period 90 % 50 % Forecast Are in KAF % 10 % 30 Year APR-SEP APR-JUL APR-AUG JAN-JUL with 3 days of QPF APR-SEP APR-JUL APR-AUG JAN-JUL with 0 days of QPF APR-SEP APR-JUL APR-AUG JAN-JUL Move the mouse over the desired "Forecast Period" to display a graph. Overlay ESP10 ESP3 ESP0 Data Files Zoomout CSV (ESP10 / APR-SEP) Max Scale Scale To Data Scale To Last 45 Days Note: Compatible with the latest browsers (Chrome, Firefox, Safari, and Internet Explorer (ie9+)).

3 Dworshak : April Runoff Forecast & Flood Control Calculation WY 2013 Runoff Forecast and Non-Shifted Flood Control Percent of Most Probable Runoff Volume Apr-Jul 2036 KAF % May-Jul 1502 KAF % 30-Apr Flood Control Space 544 KAF 30-Apr Flood Control Elevation ft Seasonal Flood Control (assumes no shift of flood control space to Grand Coulee) Forecast Date>> Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Apr-Jul Runoff Forecast First-of-Month Elev Date >> 15-Dec 31-Dec 31-Jan 28-Feb 31-Mar 15-Apr 30-Apr Flood Control Space Flood Control Elevation % whisker 20%-80% bounds 5% 1% whisker 71-yr average Spread of values around expected forecast Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Dworshak Flood Control Elevations Latest water supply forecast: Apr Elevation (ft) Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun Flood Control Elevation Requirement First-of-Month Observed Elevation Notes: 1. The given forecast is the official Corps of Engineers forecast for Dworshak. If you have any questions please contact Jeremy Giovando ( ), or Steve Hall ( ). 2. Due to updated values for precipitation, snow or streamflow, subsequent forecasts may be different from the forecast published herein Dec and 31-Dec flood control space is fixed at 700 KAF Apr target elevation does not reflect flood control shift operation between Dworshak and Grand Coulee Apr target elevation may vary as runoff occurs throughout the month of April.

4 Dworshak : April Runoff Forecast & Flood Control Calculation Apr-Jul Runoff Forecast Calculation: Variable Month Observed Value % of Regression Coefficient Marginal Runoff (KAF) A B =A*B SOI Sep Elk Butte SWE 1-Apr % Hemlock Butte SWE 1-Apr % Hoodoo Basin SWE 1-Apr % Shanghi Suit SWE 1-Apr % DWR January Inflow Jan % DWR February Inflow Feb % DWR March Inflow Mar % Intercept Apr Forecast (KAF) Data Station Sept Nov Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun Climate (Stdzd SOI) September SOI 0.20 Precipitation (monthly depth, ) Headquarters, ID Snow Water Equiv (first of month SWE depth, ) Elk Butte, ID Hemlock Butte, ID Hoodoo Basin, MT Pierce RS,ID Shanghi Suit, ID Lost Lake, ID Streamflow (monthly volume, KAF) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Dworshak Inflow HEITSTUMAN.JOH Approval: N.JOSEPH John J. Heitstuman P.E. Chief Hydrology Section Walla Walla District USACE Digitally signed by HEITSTUMAN.JOHN.JOSEPH DN: c=us, o=u.s. Government, ou=dod, ou=pki, ou=usa, cn=heitstuman.john.joseph Date: :58:39-07'00' Peter Brooks, P.E., D. WRE Ch., Hydrologic Engineering and Power Bran Columbia Basin Water Management Division

5 Water Supply Forecast - GRAND COULEE DAM file://v:\nwrfc_forecast\2013\gcdw1\04-05.html Page 1 of 1 4/8/2013 Header for Water Supply Information Page Close Archive Data/Normals Rankings Adjustments Verification Verify All Years Help Loading... (GCDW1) GRAND COULEE DAM Forecasts for Water Year 2013 APR-SEP Link to image of plot Ensemble Date: Issue Date: Official Forecast with 10 days of QPF Forecast Period 90 % 50 % Forecast Are in KAF % 10 % 30 Year APR-SEP APR-JUL APR-AUG JAN-JUL with 3 days of QPF APR-SEP APR-JUL APR-AUG JAN-JUL with 0 days of QPF APR-SEP APR-JUL APR-AUG JAN-JUL Move the mouse over the desired "Forecast Period" to display a graph. Overlay ESP10 ESP3 ESP0 Data Files Zoomout CSV (ESP10 / APR-SEP) Max Scale Scale To Data Scale To Last 45 Days Note: Compatible with the latest browsers (Chrome, Firefox, Safari, and Internet Explorer (ie9+)).

6 Libby : April Runoff Forecast & Flood Control Calculation WY 2013 Runoff Forecast and Flood Control Percent of Percent of Most Probable Runoff Volume: Apr-Aug 6189 KAF % % Apr-Jul 5596 KAF % % May-Jul 5064 KAF % % 30-Apr Flood Control Space 1972 KAF 30-Apr Flood Control Elevation ft Seasonal Flood Control VARQ Flood Control Implemented Forecast Date >> Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Apr-Aug Runoff Forecast First-of-Month Elev Date >> 30-Nov 31-Dec 31-Jan 28/29-Feb 31-Mar 30-Apr Flood Control Space Flood Control Elevation Spread of values around expected forecast 99% whisker 20%-80% bounds 5% 1% whisker 35-yr average Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Libby Flood Control Elevations Latest water supply forecast: Apr 2450 Elevation (ft) Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun Flood Control Elevation Requirement First-of-Month Observed Elevation Notes: 1. The given forecast is the official Corps of Engineers forecast for Libby. If you have any questions please contact Joel Fenolio (206) , Kevin Shaffer (206) ,Adam Price (206) , or Kristian Mickelson (206) If a prior month's forecast as published in this document is different than what was originally published in the issue month, then the earlier forecast has been adjusted to reflect updated values for precipitation or streamflow. 3. Precipitation data was missing for Fernie for March 4 7 and March Nearby Sites (Cranbrook and Sparwood) showed very little precipitation over that period, (respectively 6.9 and 8.0 ) so the Fernie monthly total was used with the average of the 2 sites (7.5 ) inserted for that data gap.

7 Libby : April Runoff Forecast & Flood Control Calculation Apr-Aug Runoff Forecast Calculation: Variable Month(s) Observed Value Percent of A Regression Coefficient Marginal Runoff (KAF) B =A*B QBO Jan:Mar PNA Oct:Jan West Glacier, MT Dec:Mar Prcp % Fernie, BC Dec:Mar Prcp % Sunshine Village, AB 1-Apr SWE East Creek, BC 1-Apr SWE % 96% Stahl Peak, MT 1-Apr SWE % Gardiner Creek, AB 1-Apr SWE Three Isle Lake, AB 1-Apr SWE Intercept % % 1-Apr Forecast (KAF) Data used in Libby Water Supply Forecast Climate Data SOI QBO PNA Precipitation Data Eureka, MT Libby 1 NE RS, MT West Glacier, MT Fernie,, BC Snow Water Equiv Floe Lake, BC Sunshine Village, AB East Creek, BC Stahl Peak, MT Gardiner Creek, AB Three Isle Lake, AB Lost Creek South, AB Morrissey Ridge, BC Hawkins Lake, MT Streamflow Libby Inflow Volume Reservoir Elevation Libby FOM Elev Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Jan Nov Dec Peter F. Brooks, P.E., D. WRE Ch., Hydrologic Engineering and Power Branch Jun Jul Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar WY 2013 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan Mar Apr May Apr 1-May 1-Jun Apr May Jun 1-Apr May 1-Jun 0.05 KAF feet Joel M. Fenolio, P.E. Upper Columbia Senior Water Manager

8 Water Supply Forecast - ALBENI FALLS DAM file://v:\nwrfc_forecast\2013\alfw1\04-05.html Page 1 of 1 4/8/2013 Header for Water Supply Information Page Close Archive Data/Normals Rankings Adjustments Verification Verify All Years Help Loading... (ALFW1) ALBENI FALLS DAM Forecasts for Water Year 2013 APR-SEP Link to image of plot Ensemble Date: Issue Date: Official Forecast with 10 days of QPF Forecast Period 90 % 50 % Forecast Are in KAF % 10 % 30 Year APR-SEP APR-JUL APR-AUG JAN-JUL with 3 days of QPF APR-SEP APR-JUL APR-AUG JAN-JUL with 0 days of QPF APR-SEP APR-JUL APR-AUG JAN-JUL Move the mouse over the desired "Forecast Period" to display a graph. Overlay ESP10 ESP3 ESP0 Data Files Zoomout CSV (ESP10 / APR-SEP) Max Scale Scale To Data Scale To Last 45 Days Note: Compatible with the latest browsers (Chrome, Firefox, Safari, and Internet Explorer (ie9+)).

9 The official Hungry Horse Dam water supply forecast is computed by the Bureau of Reclamation on the 5th working day of the month from January June. The APRIL final forecast of the May September runoff volume is used to set VARQ flood control targets and refill flows. See the 2013 Water Management Plan (Table 4) for more info. April 03, April final forecast of volumes (kaf) for Hungry Horse inflow: Apr Jul: 1,935 kaf (103%) Apr Aug: 2,002 kaf (103%) May Sep: 1,750 kaf (103%) Jan Jul: 2,164 kaf (103%) -- John Roache, Civil Engineer River and Reservoir Operations U.S. Bureau of Reclamation PN Regional Office, Boise, ID

Modeling of peak inflow dates for a snowmelt dominated basin Evan Heisman. CVEN 6833: Advanced Data Analysis Fall 2012 Prof. Balaji Rajagopalan

Modeling of peak inflow dates for a snowmelt dominated basin Evan Heisman CVEN 6833: Advanced Data Analysis Fall 2012 Prof. Balaji Rajagopalan The Dworshak reservoir, a project operated by the Army Corps