Modeling Salinity Distribution in Apalachicola Bay, Florida

Transcription

1 Modeling Salinity Distribution in Apalachicola Bay, Florida Factors Affecting Salinity Distribution in Apalachicola Bay: Freshwater Inflow Apalachicola River Lake Lanier Precipitation Wind Hurricane Climate Change Sea Level Rise Vladimir Paramygin and Y. Peter Sheng Civil and Coastal Engineering Department University of Florida Second Water Institute Symposium February 24, 2010 University of Florida

2 Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint Watershed

3 Rationale of This Study Reduced freshwater inflow leads to higher salinity inside the Bay, The problem worsens during drought and reduced flow from Lake Lanier, High salinity damages the oyster farming industry, Flow in the Apalachicola River affects the spawning of Gulf sturgeon, Climate change and sea level rise can cause salt intrusion and higher salinity inside the Bay and the River. An integrated modeling system of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) is needed to assess the impact of freshwater withdrawal and climate change on the salinity distribution inside the Apalachicola Bay and fishery (oyster inside the Bay and Gulf sturgeon inside the River). Apalachicola Bay model + Apalachicola River model + ACF River System model

4 Water War Georgia, Alabama and Florida's twenty year battle for water escalated to unprecedented level a few years ago. On July 17, 2009 a district court judge ruled that metro Atlanta has been illegally withdrawing drinking water from a federally owned reservoir known as Lake Lanier. Officials in Alabama and Florida accuse Georgia of mismanaging its water resources, causing their states to lose out on much needed water. Now the race is on for all three states to negotiate a water sharing agreement, or for Georgia to gain Congressional approval to continue to withdraw water from Lanier. If a solution cannot be reached by July of 2012, then metro Atlanta risks having its main water supply cut off.

5 Journal of Shellfish Research, Vol. 26, No. 1, , 2007 HAPLOSPORIDIUM NELSONI (MSX) rdna DETECTED IN OYSTERS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA P. N. ULRICH,1,2* C. M. COLTON,2 C. A. HOOVER,2 P. M. GAFFNEY2 AND A. G. MARS The known range of the oyster pathogen Haplosporidium nelsoni Haskin, Stauber, and Mackin (MSX) extends along the North American Atlantic coast from Nova Scotia to Florida. Our study demonstrates that H. nelsoni is also present throughout the Gulf of Mexico. Thirty of 41 oysters (73%) sampled from sites ranging from Florida to as far south as Venezuela were positive for MSX by PCR amplification of the ribosomal rrna gene complex.

6 -Use CH3D (Curvilinear-grid Hydrodynamics in 3D) for hydrodynamic and salinity simulation -CH3D Grid for the Apalachicola Bay - Period of simulation 2004 hurricane season - Initial and boundary conditions -Tides -Wind speed -River flows - Simulated water level NOAA data - Simulated salinity ANERR data

7 CH3D Grid

8 CH3D Grid

9 CH3D Grid

10 Period of simulation May 1, 2004 July 15, 2004 salinity spin-up (2.5 months) July 15, 2004 October 15, 2004 simulation (3 months) Bonnie: Aug 3 Aug 13 Charley: Aug 9 Aug 15 Frances: Aug 24 Sep 10 Ivan: Sep 2 Sep 24 Jeanne: Sep 13 Sep 28

11 2004 Tropical Storms

12 CH3D Grid

13 Boundary conditions Winds Based on NOGAPS winds WMS was used to blend two wind fields H*Wind allows for better representation of storms Tidal open boundary is based on the following tidal constituents: M2, N2, K1, S2, O1, K2, Q1 SSA, SA Salinity open boundary condition is based on HYCOM data at the following depths (in meters): 0.0, 10.0, 20.0, 30.0, 50.0, 75.0, 100.0, 125.0, 150.0, 200.0, 250.0, 300.0

14 CH3D-HYCOM Grids

15 Wind Speed, m/s Wind Speed. Apalachicola River Station WindSpeed Ivan Frances Jeanne Bonnie Date

16 Wind speed, m/s Wind speed, m/s Wind Speed. Apalachicola River Station m/s Apalachicola River. Winds. Measured Ivan Bonnie Jeanne Frances Date m/s Apalachicola River. Winds. Simulation Date

17 River Flows East Bay (near High Bluff) Based on precipitation / simulated data fit during spin-up period Apalachicola River Based on USGS data

18 Surface Precipitation based on CFSR Data 09/05/ /05/2010

19 Water level, cm (NAVD88) Simulated Water Level at Apalachicola River Measured Predicted Simulated Date

20 Salinity Simulations Base Normal conditions, based on the data Scenario 1 +1 meter elevation at open boundary Scenario 2 50% river flow reduction

21 Base Simulation. Salinity. Dry Bar

22 Base Simulation. Salinity. Cat Point

23 Wind Speed, m/s Base Simulation. Salinity. East Bay WindSpeed Ivan Frances Jeanne Bonnie Date

24 Scenario #1. Simulation. Salinity. Dry Bar

25 Surface Salinity. Post-Frances

26 Surface Salinity. Post-Jeanne

27 Scenario #1. Simulation. Salinity. Cat Point

28 Scenario #1. Simulation. Salinity. East Bay

29 Scenario #2 Simulation. Salinity. Dry Bar

30 Scenario #2 Simulation. Salinity. Cat Point

31 Scenario #2 Simulation. Salinity. East Bay

32 Summary A preliminary hydrodynamic-salinity model of the Apalachicola Bay is developed and validated with data during 2004 hurricane season. Salinity decreased right after the hurricanes, but recovered quickly. 50% reduction in freshwater flow or sea level rise (1 m) will significantly increase the salinity inside the Bay. The model will be extended into the Apalachicola River and coupled to the ACF River System model of Georgakakos. The hydrodynamic-salinity model could be expanded to include water quality and nutrient model (CH3D-IMS) and fishery model (Pine) to assess the impact of freshwater withdrawal and climate change on the Apalachicola Bay and Apalachicola River ecosystem

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