Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 20 December 2016

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1 National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 20 December 2016 If you are new to the webinar: For audio: Dial in: Enter code: then # Please put your phone on mute to avoid interfering with presenters We welcome comments, questions and discussion at the end of the webinar Welcome to the webinar!

2 National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 20 December 2016

3 Outline Welcome Eric Reutebuch, AU Water Resources Center Current drought status, seasonal forecasts & outlooks David Zierden, Florida Climate Center, FSU Streamflows and groundwater Paul Ankcorn, USGS Streamflow forecasts Jeff Dobur, SERFC ACF reservoir conditions Cynthia Donald, United States Army Corps of Engineers Summary and Discussion

4 Rainfall Last 14 Days

5 Current drought status

6 December Temperatures Average Temperature Rankings # Days of 80 or above

7 Rainfall Last 90 Days

8 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

9 Extended Forecast ECMWF 45-day precip. Typical mid-winter La Nina

10 La Nina Hanging On Nino 3.4 index at -0.4 C, slightly above the -0.5 C threshold La Nina conditions since mid-july

11 La Nina Forecast La Nina advisory issued Nov. 10 (NOAA) 65% Chance of La Nina in the next 1-3 months Indications La Nina will be short-lived Strong El Nino s usually followed by multi-year La Nina s

12 Average December Rainfall December Outlook La Nina Impacts.

13 La Nina Impacts on Winter Temp. and Precip.

14 Official NOAA 3-Month Outlook Precipitation Temperature

15

16 Take Home Messages More beneficial rain the last two weeks, especially in the lower ACF basin. Significant drought improvement in the lower ACF, upper and middle basin slower to respond Drought impacts on wildfires greatly eased, impacts on water resources and agriculture persist La Nina conditions since mid-july, contributing to the drought Likely to persist through January, models have it ending quickly afterwards La Nina favors a warm and dry winter, spring NOAA forecast reflects La Nina influences, favors warm and dry winter season

17 Streamflows and Groundwater Paul Ankcorn

18 Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Previous Brief: Current:

19 Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Previous brief: Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current:

20 Lake Lanier Inflows Chattahoochee near Cornelia ( ) Chestatee near Dahlonega ( )

21 Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at Atlanta ( ) Chattahoochee near Whitesburg ( )

22 Chattahoochee at West Point ( ) Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at Columbus( )

23 Current Streamflows Flint River near Griffin ( ) Flint River near Carsonville ( )

24 Current Streamflows Flint River at Albany ( ) Flint at Bainbridge ( )

25 Current Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee ( )

26 Groundwater Conditions Previous brief Current brief

27 Groundwater Status Miller County 08G001 (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

28 Groundwater Status Dougherty County 11K003 (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

29 Summary-Paul Ankcorn Real-time streamflows in the ACF basin range from low to above normal. 28-day average streamflows into Lake Lanier, as indicated by Cornelia and Chestatee River at Dahlonega, are in the much below normal range. 28-day average streamflows for the Chattahoochee River below Lake Lanier are in the much below normal to normal range, with a new seasonal record low at West Point. 28-day average streamflows for the Flint River remain in the much below normal to below normal range. Groundwater levels are in the low to normal range across the ACF Basin.

30 Jeff Dobur

31 1-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts Apalachicola Watershed Southeast River Forecast Center Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg Lovejoy Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal West Point Columbus Carsonville WF George Albany Columbus Woodruff Blountstown

32

33 Summary-SERFC 1 Month Streamflow forecast - Below Normal though some improvement likely. 3 Month Streamflow forecast Below Normal Pie Charts do not directly include any adjustments to the ESP forecast based on ENSO, CPC or other. Based on soil conditions relative to normal in concert with historical precipitation.

34 NIDIS Webinar December 20, 2016 State of Alabama Input

35 Alabama Drought Declaration Nov 14, 2016

36 Alabama Drought Declaration Dec 13, 2016

37 December 20, 2016 Cynthia Donald

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43 Summary-US ACE West Point and Walter F. George are almost at winter levels. Buford still remains below average. The ACF system conservation storage has remained in Zone 2 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 2 over the next few weeks. Continuing to meet downstream minimum flow requirements.

44 Questions, Comments, Discussion

45 References Speakers David Zierden, FSU Paul Ankcorn, USGS Jeff Dobur, SERFC Cynthia Donald, US ACE Moderator Eric Reutebuch, AU WRC Additional information General drought information General climate and El Niño information Streamflow monitoring & forecasting Groundwater monitoring

46 Thank you! Next briefing Tuesday, January 10 th, 2017, 1:00 pm EDT Moderator: Eric Reutebuch Slides from this briefing will be posted at Please send comments and suggestions to:

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