Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin

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1 National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin 11 February 2014

2 Outline Welcome Keith Ingram, Southeast Climate Consortium Current drought status David Zierden, Florida Climate Center, FSU Streamflows and groundwater Tony Gotvald, USGS Seasonal forecasts and outlooks David Zierden, FSU Streamflow forecasts Jeff Dobur, SERFC Summary and Discussion Keith Ingram, SECC

3 Current drought status from Drought Monitor

4 7-day Rainfall Totals

5 30-Day Rainfall

6 90-day Rainfall Departures

7 January Mean Temperature Rankings

8 Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Previous Brief: Current:

9 Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Previous brief: Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current:

10 Lake Lanier Inflows Chattahoochee near Cornelia ( ) Chestatee near Dahlonega ( )

11 Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at Atlanta ( ) Chattahoochee near Whitesburg ( )

12 Chattahoochee at West Point ( ) Current Streamflows Chattahoochee near Columbus ( )

13 Current Streamflows Flint River near Griffin ( ) Flint River near Carsonville ( )

14 Current Streamflows Flint River at Albany ( ) Flint at Bainbridge ( )

15 Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee ( )

16 Groundwater Conditions Previous brief Current brief

17 Groundwater Status Miller County, GA (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

18

19

20

21

22 5-Day Precipitation Forecast

23

24 French Toast Warning System

25 7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies

26 Winds Over the Pacific

27 ENSO forecast from IRI

28 ENSO Prediction Models

29 1-3 Month Precipitation Outlook 3 Month 1 Month

30 Fall Rainfall Climatology

31 U.S. Drought Outlook

32 Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg Lovejoy Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal West Point Columbus Carsonville WF George Albany Columbus Woodruff Blountstown

33 49% 25% 26% Lake Lanier Inflows 60% 17% 23% Whitesburg Lovejoy Above Normal Near Normal West Point 38% 25% 37% Carsonville Below Normal Columbus ID Below Above CMMG1IN WHTG LOVG ABNG BLOF WF George Columbus 25% 42% 33% Albany Woodruff 47% 19% 34% Blountstown

34 Summary There is no drought currently in the ACF basin according to the US drought monitor From 0.25 to 3 inches of rain fell in the basin over the past week, with only 1 to 4 inches over the past 30 days, which below normal Realtime streamflows about half in the normal range and half in the 10 to 24% of normal range, with a small pocket of below normal 7-day average streamflows in N Georgia Inflows to Lake Lanier and streamflows throughout the basin have fallen over the past several weeks, but are in the normal range

35 Summary Groundwater levels are mostly normal or above normal, with groundwater levels of the Upper Floridan Aquifer in the normal range compared with historically observed levels in Miller County, GA The 5-day forecast 1 to 3 inches of rainfall in the basin, with the greater amounts across the middle of the basin Although the sea surface temperatures have dropped in the Niño 3.4 region, neutral ENSO conditions continue and are likely to continue through spring

36 Summary Although the seasonal drought outlook does not forecast drought in the basin, the 3-month precipitation outlook calls for below normal rainfall in the southern part of the basin The 1-month streamflow forecast calls for above normal streamflows throughout the basin The 3-month forecast shows that there is a very high probability of normal or above normal streamflows, but that there is still a 17 to 25% chance of below normal streamflows

37 References Speakers David Zierden, FSU Tony Gotvaldt, USGS Jeff Dobur, SERFC Moderator Keith Ingram, SECC Additional information General drought information General climate and El Niño information Streamflow monitoring & forecasting Groundwater monitoring

38 Thank you! Next briefing 11 March 2014, 1:00 pm EDT Slides from this briefing will be posted at Please send comments and suggestions to:

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