Techniques of Severe Convective Weather Comprehensive Monitoring

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1 Techniques of Severe Convective Weather Comprehensive Monitoring Yongguang Zheng, Lin Yinjing, Zhu Wenjian, Lan Yu, Tang Wenyuan, Zhang Xiaoling, Mao Dongyan, Zhou Qingliang, Zhang Zhigang Severe Weather Prediction Center of National Meteorological Center of CMA China 6 Aug 2012

2 Hailstones, 20 Nov. 2002, Maoming, Guangdong Prov 2002 年 11 月 20 日广东茂名冰雹 Lightning, Some Severe Convective Cases in China Tornado, 5 May 2006, Huadu, Guangdong Prov 2006 年 5 月 5 日广东花都龙卷济南短时强降水河南永城 11 级大风 Heavy rain at Jinan, Shandong Prov., 2007 Heavy Rain, 23 June 2011, Beijing 2009 年 6 月 3 日河南大风强对流天气 Severe Convective Weather, 3 June 2009, Henan Prov High Winds, Yongcheng, Henan Prov

3 Max Rainfall 460mm Beijing radar Extreme Heavy Rain, 21 July 2012, Beijing 78 deaths in Beijing

4 Outline Objectives Data Monitoring Products Techniques Future work Summary

5 1 Objectives Basis of Forecasting Get Convective Weather State Rapidly Current State Convective Weather Process Dataset of Convective Weather Cases Study the Climatological Distribution Verify Convective Weather Forecast Qualitative Verification Quantitative Verification (TS score, etc)

6 2 Data Sources Conventional surface observations Severe Weather Reports(WS reports) Automatic Weather Station Data Cloud-ground Lightning Data IR and WV TBB from Geostationary Satellite (Fengyun-2) Radar reflectivity mosaic data

7 3 Monitoring Products Cumuli Thunderstorms Cloud-ground lightning Hail Tornadoes High winds Thunderstorm high winds Short-term heavy rain Radar reflectivity Convective storms (based on radar data) Deep convective clouds Mesoscale convective systems (MCS, based on the IR satellite data)

8 Different convective weather distribution during recent 1, 3, 6, 12, or 24 hours Real-time Update Monthly, decade, and pentad distribution can also be gotten

9 Monitoring Region -China and surrounding areas

10 4 Techniques Quality control of automatic weather station data Extracting information and statistical technique Lightning density monitoring CTREC (Cartesian Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation) TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis, and Nowcasting) Identification of deep convective clouds Identification and tracking of MCS

11 4.1 Quality Control of AWS data

12 4.2 Extracting Convection Information

13 30dBZ Extract Info from Radar Ref 45dBZ 50dBZ 14:00 不同阈值的识别结果 60dBZ

14 30dBZ during 12 Hours, 21 July 2012 Last for more than 10 hours

15 4.3 CG Lightning density monitoring Total CG lightning density in different periods Positive CG lightning density Negative CG lightning density

16 CG lightning density on 17 Apr Hour CG lightning density 1-Hour density and rainfall >=20mm/hr 0 50

17 4.4 CTREC (Cartesian Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation)

18 18BST 27 June 2011

19 4.5 TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis, and Nowcasting, from NCAR) 16 BST 23 June 2011

20 Criteron: TBB WV -TBB IR1 >-5 WV IR1 3 Threshold of TBB: Identification of deep convective clouds

21 4.7 Identification and tracking of MCS Identification Tracking Nowcasting 1 t t 1 t+1 t+2 t 1 t+1 t+2 t

22 15 Arpril 2011 Guizhou Province -32 TBB MCS -52 TBB MCS Min TBB 1-hr Rainfal 17 Apr 2011 Guangdong Province

23 MCS Nowcasting 12 Aug 2011

24 5 Future Work AWS data QC need to be further improved Enhance MCS tracking method Further can monitor the favorable conditions for convective weather (such as dewpoint at surface, convergence line)

25 6 Summary An operational system of convective weather monitoring has been built at NMC of CMA The techniques are based on the multi-source data (conventional, AWS, lightning, radar, satellite). The monitoring products have played important roles in the convective weather forecasting and nowcasting operations at NMC of CMA

SWAN The Operational System for Nowcasting and Very-short Range Forecast in CMA

SWAN The Operational System for Nowcasting and Very-short Range Forecast in CMA National Meteorological Center (NMC) China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Mao Dongyan, Zheng Yuanyuan, Zhou Kanghui