A new operational medium-range numerical weather forecast system of CHINA. NWPD/NMC/CMA (Beijing,CHINA)

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1 A new operational medium-range numerical weather forecast system of CHINA NWPD/NMC/CMA (Beijing,CHINA)

2 Organizational Chart of CMA NSMC (National Satellite Meteorological Center) NCC (National Climate Center) CMA (China Meteorological Administration) NMC (National Meteorological Center) CMO (Central Meteorological Observatory) CAMS (Chinese Academy Of Meteorological Science) NIC (National Information Center) NWPD (Numerical Weather Prediction) WFOD (Weather Forecast Office) RSAAMD (Remote Sensing Application and Agricultural Meteorology) Role of NWPD : Research, development and support of the models meant for operational weather prediction

3 Operational Numerical Forecast Systems Main Numerical Forecast Systems Global Forecast System (T213) Regional Forecast System (HLAFS) Typhoon Track Forecast System (MTTP) Mesoscale Forecast System (MM5) Ensemble Forecast System (T106)

4 Environmental Meteorology Forecast Systems Based on Main Model Systems Forest Fire Meteorological Condition Forecast System Nuclear Contamination Dispersion and Transportation Forecast System Ultraviolet Index Forecast System Dust Devil Forecast System Air Quality Forecast System

5 Structural Chart of the Operational NWP Systems Element data-base Global assimilation preprocess analysis model postprocess Medium range forecasts L.B.C & First guess Regional assimilation Typhoon forecasts Regional forecasts Mesoscale forecasts Field data-base Interactive Graphs Remote -files Grid-point products Verification TV service Archiving

6 New Medium-range Forecast System T213 Put into full operation in place of previous operational system (T106) on September 1 st Runs twice a day from 00 UTC up to 72h range and from 12 UTC up to 10days range

7 New Medium-range Forecast System T213 Runs on the massive parallel computer the first operational medium-range weather forecast system Operational machine: IBM/SP with 88 processors and peak calculation speed up to 80 GFLOPs

8 New Medium-range Forecast System T213 Contituents of the New System T213L31 global spectral model Data preprocessing Optimum Interpolation (OI) analysis Post-processing Job running watching Field database, archiving, forecast verification, product making and distribution

9 Global data assimilation system flow chart 21UTC 03UTC 09UTC 15UTC 21UTC Element data Analysis time (00UTC) (06UTC) (12UTC) (18UTC) Analysis Analysis Analysis Analysis observation file observation file observation file observation file Box high resolution analysis Box high resolution analysis Box high resolution analysis Box high resolution analysis Diabatic normal mode initialization Diabatic normal mode initialization Diabatic normal mode initialization Diabatic normal mode initialization T213L31model 6h forecast T213L31 model 6h forecast T213L31 model 6h forecast T213L31 model 6h forecast T213L31 model 72h forecast T213L31 model 240h forecast

10 Data assimilation Operational: optimized interpolation upgrading the previous operational 3D-OI with a resolution of T106L19 Optimized and Parallelized using MPI Using 8 CPU of IBM sp 10 minutes to complete each assimilation Test running: 3Dvar

11 Global spectral model T213L31 Based on global model contituent of IFS March,1998 from ECMWF Optimizing subroutines with large quantity of computation (FFT, Legendre transformation) Using asynchronous and nonblocking message passing increase the speed of communication Joint application of distributed memory and shared memory parallelization reduce communication and memory use

12 Thread 0 Thread 1 2 个线程 4 MPI Tasks task 0 task 1 task2 task3 Thread 0 Thread 1 Thread 0 Thread 1 Thread 0 Parallel mode of T213L31 on one node (8 CPUs) Thread 1 Using 6 nodes (48 CPUs), 10 days forecast can be finished in 2.5h

13 Global spectral model T213L31 Dynamical Feature triangular truncation, resolving 213 waves around a great circle on the globe;31 levels (up to 10 hpa). Semi-lagrangian, semi-implicit temporal integration, time step 15minutes. use of a reduced Gaussian grid. Hydrostatic. Forth order linear horizontal diffusion.

14 Global spectral model T213L31 Physical process orography (terrain height, US Navy data-set, 10 minutes of arc resolution) three surface and sub-surface levels (allowing for vegetation cover, gravitational drainage, capillarity exchange, surface and sub-surface runoff, deep-layer soil temperature and moisture), clouds (high, medium, low, convective) stratiform and convective precipitation, carbon dioxide (345 ppmv fixed), aerosol, ozone

15 diffusion ground and sea roughness, ground and seasurface temperature, ground humidity, snowfall, snow-cover & snow melt radiation (incoming short-wave and out-going long-wave) friction (at surface and in free atmosphere) gravity wave drag evaporation, sensible and latent heat flux

16 Verification of T213 in last year ---parallel running of T213 and T106

17 500 hpa height monthly mean anomaly correlation coefficient comparision of T213/T106 in June-August, 年 6-8 月 T213/T hPa 高度场北半球月平均距平相关系数比较 T213_48 T106_48 T213_72 T106_72 T213_96 T106_96 T213_120 T106_120 0 June July August 年 6-8 月 T213/T hPa 高度场东亚月平均距平相关系数比较 North Hemisphere East Asia T213_48 T106_48 T213_72 T106_72 T213_96 T106_96 T213_120 T106_

18 500 hpa height anomaly correlation coefficient evolution with day in North Hemisphere (April 7-September 20, 2002) EC 500hPa 高度场预报的北半球距平相关系数逐日变化 day1 day2 day3 day4 day5 day6 day T hPa 高度场预报北半球距平相关系数逐日变化 ECMWF day1 day2 day3 day4 day5 day6 day 日本 500hPa 高度场预报北半球距平相关系数逐日变化 CMA day1 day2 day3 0.2 JMA

19 500 hpa height anomaly correlation coefficient evolution with day in 图 East 6: Asia EC (April 500hPa 高度场预报的东亚距平相关系数逐日变化 7-July 20,2002) day1 day2 day3 day4 day5 day6 day 图 7: T hPa 高度场预报的东亚距平相关系数逐日变化 day1 day2 day3 day4 day5 day6 day ECMWF CMA

20 Verification Statistic of Precipitation Threat Score TS=NA/(NA+NB+NC) Forecasting Bias B=(NA+NB)/(NA+NC) NC observation NA forecasts NB

21 Standard station:400 stations; grid standard station; interpolation rank: Light rain: 0.1 mm~9.9mm Moderate rain: 10.0 mm~24.9mm Heavy rain: 25.0 mm~49.9mm Storm rain: 50.0 mm~99.9mm Torrential rain : 100.0mm ~

22 Rainfall forecast Comparision of T213 and T106 (12-36h) with observation (18-19, august, 2001) observation

23 2002 年 6 月 1 日到 9 月 27 日 T213 及预报员 24 小时降水预报累加检验 TS 评分预报员 Forecaster T213 forecasters (June 1-September 27, 2002) T213 M H S T Forec 预报员 aser T213 Forec 预报员 aser T213 Foreca 预报员 ser T213 Forec 预报员 aser T213 L Forec 预报员 aser Threat 2002 Scores 年 6 of 月 1 48h 日到 forecasting 9 月 27 日 T213 accumulative 及预报员 48 小时降水预报累 rainfall of T213 and forecasters (June 1-September 加检验 27, TS 2002) 评分预报员 Forecaster T T213 预报员 Forec aser T213 Forec aser 预报员 T213 Forec 预报员 aser T213 预报员 Forec aser T213 S T L M H 预报员 Fore caser

24 Real SST Experiment

25 Real SST Experiment The main problems exist in forecasting precipitation of T213 in CHINA in July to August in the typhoon rainfall often lies southerly to the main land of CHINA and lies on the sea. Case Experiment Five typhoon synoptic procedures which affected CHINA in July to August of 2001

26

27 operational test observation

28 operational test ncep reanalysis

29 operational test Ncep reanalysis

30 Rainfall Verification in Summer of 2003

31 Comparision of rainfall verification for CHINA with different models (June,2003) T213 DWD JMA L M H S T L M H S T L M H S T L M H S T L M H S T T213 DWD JMA L M H S T

32 Comparision of rainfall verification for CHINA with different models (July,2003) T213 DWD JMA LM H S T L M H S T

33 Comparision of rainfall verification for CHINA with different models (August,2003) T213 DWD JMA L M H S T L M H S T

34 Prospects for development

35 Prospects for development improvement to operational system Realization of SETTLS(Stable Extrapolation Two-Time_level Scheme): with the kindly help of Dr. Hortal of ECMWF Use of linear gaussian grid raise of resolution to TL511L60(before 2008) More physical components in the models Improvement of assimilation algorithms, with more efforts put on satellite and radar observation data Development of surface analysis

36 Prospects for development Development of a unified model Unified grid model Common dynamic frame used by multiply scale global, mesoscale and climate model 4Dvar with stress on the use of satellite data Physical processes suitable to different sacles Suportive environment program coding standards, graphic package, interface for research and development, product interpretation

37 Regional coupled subsystem Mesoscale Atmospheric 4DVAR Regional Oceanic 4DVAR Atmosphere commonly used dynamic frame Mesoscale Atmosphere Physis Global Atmospheric Physics simplified Monthly and Seasonally Atmospheric Physics Mesoscale Atmospheric Model Global Atmospheric model Regional Oceanic Model Global coupled subsystem Global Atmospheric 4DVAR Global Oceanic Model Coupled ensemble subsystem Ensemble Atmospheric Model Monthly and Seasonally Atmospheric Model Global Oceanic 4DVAR Simplified Oceanic Model Coupled climate subsystem Simplified Oceanic Model Regional Oceanic Physics Global Oceanic Physics Oceanic commonly used dynamic frame The structure of the next generation numerical forecast system of CHINA

38 Ensemble 集合预报 forecasts 中尺度 Mesoscale ((physics) 物理 ) 动力框架 Dynamic Frame ( 静力 / 非 (hydrostatic/ nonhydrostatic) 静力 ) 短期气候 Short term ( Climate 物理化 (physics and Chemistry) 学 ) Oceanic 海洋模式 model Medium 中期 ( 物理 range) (physics) 图 7 新一代多尺度通用模式体系结构图 Illustration of multiple scale unified model

39 中国新一代模式与同化系统基本构想 The unified model and assimilation system of CHINA 大 大 Atmosphere 气 气 平流层 stratosphere 平流层 动力 辐射 简单化学 动力 辐射 简单化学 ( 多尺度物理过程 ) Dynamics-radiation-simplified chemistry (multiple scale physical process) ( 多尺度物理过程 ) 动力 辐射 云 能量与水循环 Dynamics-radiation-cloud-energy and water cycling (multiple scale physical process) 层 troposphere 对流层动力 辐射 云 能量与水循环 ( 多尺度物理过程 ( 多尺度物理过程 ) ) 动分力析框同架化 Analysis and assimilation 动分 力析 框同 架化 Dynamic frame 陆 land 地 海 ocean 洋 海洋 ocean 海洋陆地 / 水圈陆地 / 生物圈 海浪 海冰 Sea wave 海浪 海冰洋流 Ocean 洋流 circulation Sea ice 陆地 / 水圈 Land/hydrosphere 雪盖 Snow cover Soil water 雪盖土壤水冰冻 土壤水冰冻 congelation 路面过程土壤水 植被 陆地 / 生物圈 动分力析框同架化 Land/ecosphere 路面过程 Soil water,vegtation 土壤水 植被 动力框 Dynamic frame 架 Analysis 分 and 析同化 assimilat -ion

40 图 1 中国 The 气 increase 象局国 of resolution 家级数 of 值 numerical 预报 forecast 模式水 models 平分 as time 辨率 goes 逐 on 年提高 200km 中 ensemble 期集合 160km 120km global 全球中期 60km regional 区域短期 30km mesoscale BJ 中尺度 表 1 中 国 气 象 局 国 家 级 数 值 预 报 模 式 水 平 分 辨 率 逐 年 提 高 年 year份模 model 式 BJ mesoscale 中尺度 15K M 6K M 3K M 1K M 全 regional 国区域 5 0 K M 2 5 K M 1 5 K M 5 K M 全球 global 中期 120K M 60K M 40K M 20K M 中 ensemble 期集合 200K M 120K M 80K M 60K M

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