Application of Satellite analysis in tropical cyclone of CMA
|
|
- Barry Knight
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 2 nd International Workshop On Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones (IWSATC-2) Satellite TC Analysis in Operations: Changes since IWSATC-1 17 February 2016 Honolulu, Hawaii, USA Application of Satellite analysis in tropical cyclone of CMA Chunyi XIANG National Meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration (CMA)
2 Contents: 1. Application of Devorak technique 2. Development of objective estimation system 3. Application in best track dataset analysis
3 1 Application of Devorak technique The classical Dvorak technique (1984 version) began to be conducted in operational TC intensity analysis since Since 18 th Apr. 2014, the 24h warning areas entirely includes the South China Sea and 48h warning areas is also enlarged correspondingly. The real time satellite analysis is performed 4 (out of 48h areas) or 8 times (within 48h areas) daily 24h warning areas (8times) 48h warning areas (8times) Warning zone
4 1 Application of Devorak technique Based on classical Dvorak technique, both FY-2 and MTSAT ( replaced by Himawari-8 since 5 th Dec, 2015) can be served as reliable reference for the official TC positioning and intensity determination, which is also officially issued by NMC/CMA. CMA Dvorak analysis working sheet
5 1 Application of Devorak technique For most cases, the following three types can be used to provide a pre-estimated location from a given satellite image. More subsequent data like AMSU, ASCAT/Quick SCAT and surface observations can be correspondingly used to confirm or revise the pre-estimation. The deviations of different Satellites are reasonably considered when determine the final official position.
6 1 Application of Devorak technique The secondary step is to select one of the patterns including Curved Band, Shear, Eye, CDO(Central Dense Overcast for VIS) and Embedded Center (for IR), as well as Central Cold Cover. Each singe pattern has its own categories and corresponding Data T numbers. The T numbers and TC intensity ranges can be typically assigned from the following relationship to cloud patterns.
7 1 Application of Devorak technique Since wind-pressure relationship(wpr) are experimental and different between agencies, NMC starts to use a recommended CI-pressurewind relationship 25% 分位数 50% 分位数 75% 分位数 CI 气压风速气压风速气压风速 TD TS STS TY STY Super TY *Based on CMA operational data in 2013 CI Index MWS(m/s) Rang of Pressure(hPa) ~998~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~880 * Red one is recommended num.
8 1 Application of Devorak technique Reanalysis of CI index and CMA-BT shows the Dvorak technique can be reasonably used in operational work and lead to reliable intensity. Variances in TCs final intensity are still exist on condition that different wind-pressure relationship(wpr) and subjective CI determinant. Intensity (m /s) Intensity - CI (BABJ) CI (BABJ) Pressure - CI (BABJ) Pressure (hpa) *Based on operational data of CMA & JMA CI (BABJ)
9 1 Application of Devorak technique CI=7.5 CI=8.0 Comparison of the Result of Intensity Estimated Based on WPR using the maximum intensity of Rammasun(1409) Different WPR used by each official center ( dash line is calculated from Best-track CMA using the cases of 2013)
10 1 Application of Devorak technique Special Training : ---TC positioning schedule --- TC Dvorak schedule and instructions Advisor: ---S.T Chen, HKO Location---- Training Center of CMA, Beijing Time----22th FEB to 29 th FEB, 2012 Participants: --- National Meteorological Center --- National Meteorological Center --- Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA
11 1 Application of Devorak technique Operational guidance : --- operational use of Dvorak technique --- Historical and real-time analysis Advisor ---Dr. Mark. A. Lander, U. of Guam Location----NMC, Beijing Time th AUG to 16 th AUG, 2013 Participants: --- National Meteorological Center
12 1 Application of Devorak technique Operational discussing: ---Specify the use in the South China Sea --- Historical and real-time analysis Advisor: --- Chief forecasters of CMA Location----NMC, Beijing Time th JUL to 20 th JUL, 2015(twice a week) Participants: --- National Meteorological Center
13 Contents: 1. Application of Devorak technique 2. Development of objective estimation system 3. Application in best track dataset analysis
14 2 Development of objective estimation system Based on Dvorak technique, an advanced tropical cyclone intensity objective estimation system was co-developed with CIMSS using both FY2 data and MTSAT data.
15 2 Development of objective estimation system The system is now working with input information from FY2E/2G and also MTSAT. The example of super typhoon Haiyan at 12UTC on 7 th Nov The center temperature is +7.1 C, the cloud region temperature is -84.6C, CI is 8.0, MSLP is 862.3hPa, and Vmax is 170kt. ADT analysis: 891.7hPa,75m/s (14BJT 18 th JUL, 2014 ) Surface Observation: 899.2hPa,anemoscope damaged (13:50BJT 18 th JUL, 2014 )
16 Contents: 1. Application of Devorak technique 2. Development of objective estimation system 3. Application in best track dataset analysis
17 3 Application in best track dataset analysis Post season best track analysis scheme in CMA Satellite application in post season best track analysis I. Reference from other agencies II. A mathematical morphology-based algorithm for TC center location III. An objective TC intensity estimation method
18 3 Application in best track dataset analysis
19 3 Application in best track dataset analysis Satellite application in post season best track analysis 1. Dvorak analysis is not performed specifically during the post season re-analysis process. Instead, the real time satellite analysis issued by NMC/CMA is served as an important reference. 2. The typhoon intensity estimation based on Dvorak technique from CIMSS and NOAA Satellite and Information Service are also used as reference. 3. Microwave images are used more and more frequently in post season satellite analysis. However, no canonical procedure has been set up for the application of these images. 4. A STI-in-house objective intensity estimation method and a TC center location algorithm based on mathematical morphology are also applied to provide extra reference.
20 1 Satellite image analysis morphologic By the process of erosion and dilation the point which is near the biggest grads of the high gray values area will be located as TC center. LIU Zhengguang, QIU Haiming, WU Bing et al. 2003: An algorithm for Tropical Cyclone center location based on satellite images. Journal of Tianjin University, 2003(6),
21 3 Application in best track dataset analysis 2 Satellite image analysis inner-core convection The technique (Lu et al., 2013, 2014) is based on the statistical relationship between TC intensity and its inner-core convection, plus the persistence of TC intensity (Formula 1). In the model, the inner core convection is described by several parameters retrieved from digital infrared (IR) satellite images, including the number of convective cores (Num), their distance to the TC center (DIS), and their blackbody temperature(tbb), among others. The persistence of TC intensity is embodied by the TC intensity six hours previous(v6h). Vmax= V6h Num Lon Lat DISmin TBBdif (1)
22 Thank you!
Development of Tropical cyclone objective analysis technique based on FY serial satellite data
2 nd International Workshop On Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones (IWSATC-2) Update on Objective Satellite-Based TC Analysis Methods 18 February 2016 Honolulu, Hawaii, USA Development of Tropical
More informationComparative Study of Dvorak Analysis in the western North Pacific. Naohisa Koide and Shuji Nishimura Forecast Division, Japan Meteorological Agency
Comparative Study of Dvorak Analysis in the western North Pacific Naohisa Koide and Shuji Nishimura Forecast Division, Japan Meteorological Agency 1. Introduction The United Nations Economic and Social
More informationInternational Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship
World Meteorological Organization International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship Third Workshop (IBTrACS-III) Report and Recommendations Prepared by Kenneth Knapp (Chair) HONOLULU, HAWAII, USA
More informationDerrick Herndon and Chris Velden University of Wisconsin - Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
CIMSS SATellite CONsensus (SATCON) Derrick Herndon and Chris Velden University of Wisconsin - Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies Presented at International Workshop on Satellite
More informationMicrowave-TC intensity estimation. Ryo Oyama Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological Agency
Microwave-TC intensity estimation Ryo Oyama Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological Agency Contents 1. Introduction 2. Estimation of TC Maximum Sustained Wind (MSW) using TRMM Microwave
More informationProbabilistic Evaluation of Prediction and Dynamics of Super Typhoon MEGI (2010)
Probabilistic Evaluation of Prediction and Dynamics of Super Typhoon MEGI (2010) 6 November 2012 Chuanhai Qian 1, Fuqing Zhang 2, Yihong Duan 1 1 China Meteorological Administration 2 Pennsylvania State
More informationP4.1 CONSENSUS ESTIMATES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY USING MULTISPECTRAL (IR AND MW) SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
P4.1 CONSENSUS ESTIMATES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY USING MULTISPECTRAL (IR AND MW) SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS Christopher Velden* Derrick C. Herndon and James Kossin University of Wisconsin Cooperative
More informationTC intensity estimation using Satellite data at JMA
SECOND INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON SATELLITE ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES (IWSATC-II) TC intensity estimation using Satellite data at JMA Topics: 1) Estimation of TC central pressure using Microwave Sounder
More informationTC STRUCTURE GUIDANCE UPDATES
TC STRUCTURE GUIDANCE UPDATES FROM NESDIS (CO)/CIRA Status and update for the multi-platform tropical cyclone wind analysis (MTCSWA) New microwave-sounder-based intensity and structure estimates New method
More informationAOMSUC-6 Training Event
Effective use of high temporal and spatial resolution Himawari-8 data AOMSUC-6 Training Event Bodo Zeschke Australian Bureau of Meteorology Training Centre Australian VLab Centre of Excellence Content
More informationAnnual Report on the Activities of the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center 2014
Annual Report on the Activities of the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center 2014 TY Vongfong 23 UTC, 7 October 2014 Japan Meteorological Agency Annual Report on the Activities of the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center
More informationA Climatology of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific
A Climatology of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Naoko KITABATAKE (Meteorological Research Institute / Japan Meteorological Agency) 1 Outline 1. Topic 1:
More informationThe Status Report of FY-2F
Seventh Session of the Expert Team on Satellite Utilization and Products The Status Report of FY-2F Presented by Xiang Fang National Satellite Meteorological Center (NSMC) China Meteorological Administration
More informationOutline of 4 Lectures
Outline of 4 Lectures 1. Sept. 17, 2008: TC best track definition and datasets, global distribution of TCs; Review of history of meteorological satellites, introducing different orbits, scanning patterns,
More informationThe Experiment on Typhoon Intensity Change in Coastal Area (EXOTICCA) ANNUAL REPORT (Item of Tentative Program for 49 th TC Session)
ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee 49 th Session 21-24 February 2017 Yokohama, Japan FOR PARTICIPANTS ONLY WRD/TC.49/5.4.1 31 December 2016 ENGLISH ONLY The Experiment on Typhoon Intensity Change in Coastal Area
More informationFernando Prates. Evaluation Section. Slide 1
Fernando Prates Evaluation Section Slide 1 Objectives Ø Have a better understanding of the Tropical Cyclone Products generated at ECMWF Ø Learn the recent developments in the forecast system and its impact
More informationActivities and Outlook related to Disaster Reduction in CMA
Activities and Outlook related to Disaster Reduction in CMA WANG Bangzhong China Meteorological Administration March 15-17 2006 ADENDA Situation about MD and related disasters in CHINA Guidance for MD/RD
More informationAnnual Report on the Activities of the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center 2012
Annual Report on the Activities of the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center 2012 TY Sanba 00 UTC, 14 September 2012 Japan Meteorological Agency Annual Report on the Activities of the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center
More informationJMA s ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS In response to Action 40.22
5 July 2013 Prepared by JMA Agenda Item: II/6 Discussed in WG II JMA s ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS In response to Action 40.22 This paper reports on the recent status of JMA's AMVs from MTSAT-2 and MTSAT-1R,
More informationACTIVITIES OF THE RSMC TOKYO - TYPHOON CENTER IN 2010
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC AND WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION WRD/TC.43/5.1 Add. 2 18 January 2011 Typhoon Committee Forty Third Session 17 to 22 January 2011 Jeju, Republic
More informationESTIMATION OF THE SEA SURFACE WIND IN THE VICINITY OF TYPHOON USING HIMAWARI-8 LOW-LEVEL AMVS
Proceedings for the 13 th International Winds Workshop 27 June - 1 July 2016, Monterey, California, USA ESTIMATION OF THE SEA SURFACE WIND IN THE VICINITY OF TYPHOON USING HIMAWARI-8 LOW-LEVEL AMVS Kenichi
More informationDerrick Herndon and Chris Velden University of Wisconsin - Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
Derrick Herndon and Chris Velden University of Wisconsin - Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies Presented at International Workshop on Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones
More informationActivities of Numerical Weather Prediction for Typhoon forecast at Japan Meteorological Agency
Activities of Numerical Weather Prediction for Typhoon forecast at Japan Meteorological Agency Masayuki Nakagawa Numerical Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Forty-ninth
More information16 th RAV/TCC Meeting, Solomon Is Misaeli Funaki- RSMC Nadi
16 th RAV/TCC Meeting, Solomon Is. 2016 Misaeli Funaki- RSMC Nadi 2014/15 seasonal activities reviewed -Climate Indices - MJO..etc - Seasonal Review 2015/16 seasonal activities reviewed -Climate Indices
More informationRyo Oyama Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency. Abstract
Algorithm and validation of a tropical cyclone central pressure estimation method based on warm core intensity as observed using the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) Ryo Oyama Meteorological
More informationInternational TOVS Study Conference-XIV Proceedings. Liu zhe
Analysis of typhoon rananim using ATOVS retrieval products Liu zhe Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, China Han zhigang Zhao zengliang Beijing Institute of Applied
More informationTopic 2.3 OBJECTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY ANALYSIS
Topic 2.3 OBJECTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY ANALYSIS Topic chairs: Rapporteurs: Elizabeth Ritchie and Chun-Chieh Wu Derrick Herndon and Chris Velden Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite
More informationThe Role of PAGASA in Disaster Mitigation
The Role of PAGASA in Disaster Mitigation Christopher F. Perez 2017 ACTS Workshop on Extreme Weather Forecast and Water Resource Management Hanoi, Vietnam September 26-27, 2017 Tropical Storm AMANG(Mekkhala),
More informationEarth Observation & forecasting Storm Surges in the North Western Pacific. Mr. Nadao Kohno Japan Meteorological Agency
Earth Observation & forecasting Storm Surges in the North Western Pacific Mr. Nadao Kohno Japan Meteorological Agency Lesson Outline Introduction JMA s responsibility and work as a RSMC, Tokyo Typhoon
More information2014/2/25. Earth Observation & forecasting Storm Surges in the North Western Pacific. Lesson Outline. RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center.
Earth Observation & forecasting Storm Surges in the North Western Pacific Mr. Nadao Kohno Japan Meteorological Agency Lesson Outline Introduction JMA s responsibility and work as a RSMC, Tokyo Typhoon
More informationTopic 2: Cyclogenesis, Intensity and Intensity Change
EIGHTH INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON TROPICAL CYCLONES Topic 2: Cyclogenesis, Intensity and Intensity Change Topic chairs: Elizabeth A. Ritchie (UA) and Chun-Chieh Wu (NTU) Rapporteurs: Anantha Aiyyar (NCSU),
More informationJMA s atmospheric motion vectors
Prepared by JMA Agenda Item: WG II/6 Discussed in WG II JMA s atmospheric motion vectors This paper reports on the recent status of JMA's Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) from MTSAT-2 and MTSAT-1R, and
More informationSH RI Events. Influence From Patterns Of Different Scale
SH072014 RI Events Influence From Patterns Of Different Scale RI Explanation * Rapid intensification, approximately an increase of 2 Dvorak T-numbers or 30 knots in 24 hours, frequently occurs in JTWC
More informationCurrent Details from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Current Details from the Joint Warning Center COORDINATES: 19.6 north, 125.5 east (previous location: 17.9 north, 130.3 east) LOCATION: 737 kilometers (458 miles) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan MOVEMENT:
More informationAssimilation of GNSS Radio Occultation Data at JMA. Hiromi Owada, Yoichi Hirahara and Masami Moriya Japan Meteorological Agency
Assimilation of GNSS Radio Occultation Data at JMA Hiromi Owada, Yoichi Hirahara and Masami Moriya Japan Meteorological Agency COSMIC-IROWG 2017, 21-27 September 2017 1 Outline Current RO data utilization
More informationA Tropical Cyclone with a Very Large Eye
JANUARY 1999 PICTURES OF THE MONTH 137 A Tropical Cyclone with a Very Large Eye MARK A. LANDER University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam 9 September 1997 and 2 March 1998 1. Introduction The well-defined eye
More informationUnderstanding the Microphysical Properties of Developing Cloud Clusters during TCS-08
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Understanding the Microphysical Properties of Developing Cloud Clusters during TCS-08 PI: Elizabeth A. Ritchie Department
More informationUpgrade of JMA s Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System
Upgrade of JMA s Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System Masayuki Kyouda Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency and Masakazu Higaki Office of Marine Prediction, Japan Meteorological Agency
More informationIntroduction forecast Procedure of National Typhoon Center / KMA
The 6 th China-Korea Joint Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (26 May-1 June, 2013) Introduction forecast Procedure of National Typhoon Center / KMA Lee, Jae-shin(jaeshin_l@yahoo.com) National Typhoon Center(NTC)
More informationA High-Quality Tropical Cyclone Reanalysis Dataset Using 4DVAR Data Assimilation Technique
A High-Quality Tropical Cyclone Reanalysis Dataset Using 4DVAR Data Assimilation Technique Prof. Tim Li IPRC/University of Hawaii and Dr. Fuzhong Weng, Chief Sensor Physics Branch NOAA/NESDIS/Office of
More informationWorld Meteorological Organization. International Workshop on Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones II (IWSATC-II)
World Meteorological Organization International Workshop on Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones II (IWSATC-II) Report and Recommendations Prepared by Andrew Burton and Christopher Velden (Co-Chairs)
More informationExamination of Tropical Cyclogenesis using the High Temporal and Spatial Resolution JRA-25 Dataset
Examination of Tropical Cyclogenesis using the High Temporal and Spatial Resolution JRA-25 Dataset Masato Sugi Forecast Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Correspondence: msugi@mri-jma.go.jp
More informationAugmentation of Early Intensity Forecasting in Tropical Cyclones
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Augmentation of Early Intensity Forecasting in Tropical Cyclones J. Scott Tyo College of Optical Sciences University of
More informationDevelopment of 3D Variational Assimilation System for ATOVS Data in China
Development of 3D Variational Assimilation System for ATOVS Data in China Xue Jishan, Zhang Hua, Zhu Guofu, Zhuang Shiyu 1) Zhang Wenjian, Liu Zhiquan, Wu Xuebao, Zhang Fenyin. 2) 1) Chinese Academy of
More informationProject CyMISS Tropical Cyclone Measurements from the ISS
Project CyMISS Tropical Cyclone Measurements from the ISS A.T. Stair, Paul Joss, Andrew LePage, John DeVore and Paul Pauliukonis And Joe Kristl, SDL/USU Visidyne, Inc (ats@visidyne.com) 1 Acronyms and
More informationNowcasting techniques in use for severe weather operation in NMC/CMA
WWRP NMRWG Buenos Aires Aug 2017 Nowcasting techniques in use for severe weather operation in NMC/CMA Jianjie WANG National Meteorological Center, CMA Cascading Weather Forecasting Process --- different
More informationImproving Tropical Cyclone Forecasts by Assimilating Microwave Sounder Cloud-Screened Radiances and GPM precipitation measurements
Improving Tropical Cyclone Forecasts by Assimilating Microwave Sounder Cloud-Screened Radiances and GPM precipitation measurements Hyojin Han a, Jun Li a, Mitch Goldberg b, Pei Wang a,c, Jinlong Li a,
More informationLIGHTNING DISTRIBUTION AND EYEWALL OUTBREAKS IN TROPICAL CYCLONES DURING LANDFALL
LIGHTNING DISTRIBUTION AND EYEWALL OUTBREAKS IN TROPICAL CYCLONES DURING LANDFALL Wenjuan Zhang* 1, Yijun Zhang 1,2, Dong Zheng 1, Xiuji Zhou 1,2 1 Laboratory of Lightning Physics and Protection Engineering,
More informationRecent Advances in the Processing, Targeting and Data Assimilation Applications of Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs)
Recent Advances in the Processing, Targeting and Data Assimilation Applications of Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) Howard Berger and Chris Velden Cooperative Institute for Meteorological
More informationCurrent status and plans of JMA operational wind product
Current status and plans of JMA operational wind product Kazuki Shimoji Japan Meteorological Agency / Meteorological Satellite Center 3-235, Nakakiyoto, Kiyose, Tokyo, Japan Abstract The Meteorological
More informationDEVELOPING AND NON DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONES REVEALED BY HIGH DENSITY CLOUD MOTION WINDS
DEVELOPING AND NON DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONES REVEALED BY HIGH DENSITY CLOUD MOTION WINDS Xu Jianmin, Fang Xiang, Zhang qisong (National Satellite Meteorological Center) Abstract It has been indicated
More informationT-PARC and TCS08 (Submitted by Pat Harr, Russell Elsberry and Tetsuo Nakazawa)
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES INTERNATIONAL CORE STEERING COMMITTEE FOR THORPEX Eighth Session DWD, Offenbach (2 4 November 2009) CAS/ICSC-8/DOC4.1 (3 X.2009) Item:
More informationJTWC's Use of TRMM in Typhoon Forecast Operations
Use of TRMM in Typhoon Forecast Operations JTWC's Use of TRMM in Typhoon Forecast Operations Slide 1/24 Use of TRMM in Typhoon Forecast Operations Slide 2/24 Opening Comments The current microwave satellite
More informationAVIATION APPLICATIONS OF A NEW GENERATION OF MESOSCALE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION SYSTEM OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY
P452 AVIATION APPLICATIONS OF A NEW GENERATION OF MESOSCALE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION SYSTEM OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY Wai-Kin WONG *1, P.W. Chan 1 and Ivan C.K. Ng 2 1 Hong Kong Observatory, Hong
More informationBriefing on the WMO Support to Viet Nam to cope with Typhoon Haiyan
WMO Briefing on the WMO Support to Viet Nam to cope with Typhoon Haiyan A Case of WMO Emergency Response Typhoon Haiyan trajectory Background Typhoon Haiyan remained strong after devastating the Philippines
More informationActivities of NOAA s NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Activities of NOAA s NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Jon Gottschalck and Dave DeWitt Improving Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting for Drought Preparedness May 27-29, 2015 San Diego,
More informationPredicting Tropical Cyclone Formation and Structure Change
Predicting Tropical Cyclone Formation and Structure Change Patrick A. Harr Department of Meteorology Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943-5114 phone: (831)656-3787 fax: (831)656-3061 email: paharr@nps.navy.mil
More informationResearch on Climate of Typhoons Affecting China
Research on Climate of Typhoons Affecting China Xu Ming Shanghai Typhoon Institute November,25 Outline 1. Introduction 2. Typhoon disasters in China 3. Climatology and climate change of typhoon affecting
More informationAnnual Report on Activities of the RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center 2001
Annual Report on Activities of the RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center 2001 Japan Meteorological Agency Annual Report 2001 Table of Contents Introduction Page Chapter 1 Operations at the RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center
More informationThe UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) : An Automated IR Method to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity
The UW-CIMSS Advanced (ADT) : An Automated IR Method to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Timothy Olander and Christopher Velden University of Wisconsin Madison, USA Cooperative Institute for Meteorological
More informationRecent Developments in Climate Information Services at JMA. Koichi Kurihara Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency
Recent Developments in Climate Information Services at JMA Koichi Kurihara Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency 1 Topics 1. Diagnosis of the Northern Hemispheric circulation in December
More informationEffect of uncertainties in sea surface temperature dataset on the simulation of typhoon Nangka (2015)
Received: 27 July 217 Revised: 6 October 217 Accepted: 2 November 217 Published on: 5 December 217 DOI: 1.12/asl.797 RESEARCH ARTICLE Effect of uncertainties in sea surface temperature dataset on the simulation
More informationDevelopment of A Rapid Typhoon Loss Estimation System in China
1 st Annual Conference of the International Society for Integrated Disaster Risk Management - IDRiM 2010 September 1-4, 2010, Vienna, Austria Development of A Rapid Typhoon Loss Estimation System in China
More informationComparison of Three Tropical Cyclone Intensity Datasets
NO.1 YU Hui, HU Chunmei and JIANG Leyi 121 Comparison of Three Tropical Cyclone Intensity Datasets YU Hui 1,2 ( ), HU Chunmei 3 ( ), and JIANG Leyi 1,2 ( ) 1 Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, Shanghai 200030
More informationTropical Cyclone Warning System in the Philippines
Republic of the Philippines Department of Science and Technology PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRAION (PAGASA) Science Garden Compound, Agham Road, Diliman, Quezon
More informationStudy on Air-Sea Interaction under Typhoon and Its Application of Two Important Projects
ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Technical Conference (TC50 TECO) Study on Air-Sea Interaction under Typhoon and Its Application of Two Important Projects Li Yongping Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA 2018.02.26
More informationStorm Surge Modelling at the JRC. A. Annunziato
Storm Surge Modelling at the JRC A. Annunziato Storm Surge Activities The following modelling activities are carried out at JRC Tsunami wave height forecast Cyclones Storm Surge The activities are performed
More informationThe Dvorak Technique
Dvorak Technique Title Slide The Dvorak Technique JACK BEVEN NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WHERE AMERICA S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN What is the Dvorak Technique? A statistical method for estimating
More informationHave a better understanding of the Tropical Cyclone Products generated at ECMWF
Objectives Have a better understanding of the Tropical Cyclone Products generated at ECMWF Learn about the recent developments in the forecast system and its impact on the Tropical Cyclone forecast Learn
More informationForecasting Polar Lows. Gunnar Noer The Norwegian Meteorological Institute in Tromsø
Forecasting Polar Lows Gunnar Noer The Norwegian Meteorological Institute in Tromsø Longyearbyen Hopen Bear Island Jan Mayen Tromsø Gunnar Noer Senior forecaster / developer for polar meteorology The Norwegian
More informationTropical Cyclone Initialization with Dynamical and Physical constraints derived from Satellite data
International Workshop on Rapid Change Phenomena in Tropical Cyclones Haikou China, 5 9 November 2012 Tropical Cyclone Initialization with Dynamical and Physical constraints derived from Satellite data
More informationIntroduction to TIGGE and GIFS. Richard Swinbank, with thanks to members of GIFS-TIGGE WG & THORPEX IPO
Introduction to TIGGE and GIFS Richard Swinbank, with thanks to members of GIFS-TIGGE WG & THORPEX IPO GIFS-TIGGE/NCAR/NOAA Workshop on EPS developments, June 2012 TIGGE THORPEX Interactive Grand Global
More information非静力学 4 次元変分法. Kosuke Ito
The 3 rd Research Meeting of Ultrahigh Precision Meso Scale Weather Prediction Kobe, Japan 2013/03/21 / 非静力学 4 次元変分法 データ同化システムの高度化 Development of nonhydrostatic meso 4D VAR dt data assimilation il system
More informationComments by William M. Gray (Colorado State University) on the recently published paper in Science by Webster, et al
Comments by William M. Gray (Colorado State University) on the recently published paper in Science by Webster, et al., titled Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment
More information1. Introduction. 2. Verification of the 2010 forecasts. Research Brief 2011/ February 2011
Research Brief 2011/01 Verification of Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific and Number of Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall in South China and the Korea and Japan region
More informationNUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS USING CLOUD MOTION WINDS AT ECMWF GRAEME KELLY. ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading ABSTRACT
NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS USING CLOUD MOTION WINDS AT ECMWF GRAEME KELLY ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading ABSTRACT Recent monitoring of cloud motion winds (SATOBs) at ECMWF has shown an improvement in quality.
More informationPerformance and Application of CSPP/IMAPP in East China
Performance and Application of CSPP/IMAPP in East China Yan-An Liu 1, Wei Gao 1, Runhe Shi 1, Allen Huang 2, Kathy Strabala 2, Liam Gumley 2 1. East China Normal University 2. University of Wisconsin-Madison
More informationUpdates on Chinese Meteorological Satellite Programs
6 th Asia/Oceania Meteorological Satellite Users Conference Updates on Chinese Meteorological Satellite Programs Caiying Wei Deputy director-general of NSMC National Satellite Meteorological Center (NSMC)
More information2006 Annual Tropical Cyclone Report U.S. Naval Maritime Forecast Center/ Joint Typhoon Warning Center Pearl Harbor, Hawaii
Annual Tropical Cyclone Report U.S. Naval Maritime Forecast Center/ Joint Typhoon Warning Center Pearl Harbor, Hawaii Composite MODIS true color image from the Aqua satellite of Super Typhoon C (Ioke)
More informationIBTrACS: International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. Put your title here too
IBTrACS: International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship Put your title here too 1 The IBTrACS Players Ken Knapp, Paula Hennon, Michael Kruk, Howard Diamond, Ethan Gibney, Carl Schreck NOAA s
More informationMotivation & Goal. We investigate a way to generate PDFs from a single deterministic run
Motivation & Goal Numerical weather prediction is limited by errors in initial conditions, model imperfections, and nonlinearity. Ensembles of an NWP model provide forecast probability density functions
More informationChallenges and Advances related to TC Rainfall Forecast. WOO Wang-chun Hong Kong Observatory IWTCLP-III, Jeju, Korea 10 Dec 2014
Challenges and Advances related to TC Rainfall Forecast WOO Wang-chun Hong Kong Observatory IWTCLP-III, Jeju, Korea 10 Dec 2014 Working Group Composition Member Wallace HOGSETT Affiliations Weather Analytics,
More informationAn overview of Wet Season Forecasting in the Northern Territory
TWP-ICE Meeting November 2004 An overview of Wet Season Forecasting in the Northern Territory Lori Chappel Northern Territory Regional Forecasting Centre Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Day
More informationRecent Developments of JMA Operational NWP Systems and WGNE Intercomparison of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast
Recent Developments of JMA Operational NWP Systems and WGNE Intercomparison of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Chiashi Muroi Numerical Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency 1 CURRENT STATUS AND
More informationAssimilation of Himawari-8 Atmospheric Motion Vectors into the Numerical Weather Prediction Systems of Japan Meteorological Agency
Assimilation of Himawari-8 Atmospheric Motion Vectors into the Numerical Weather Prediction Systems of Japan Meteorological Agency Koji Yamashita Japan Meteorological Agency kobo.yamashita@met.kishou.go.jp,
More information4.3.2 Configuration. 4.3 Ensemble Prediction System Introduction
4.3 Ensemble Prediction System 4.3.1 Introduction JMA launched its operational ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) for one-month forecasting, one-week forecasting, and seasonal forecasting in March of 1996,
More informationTROPICAL CYCLONES, TCS08, T-PARC and YOTC
TROPICAL CYCLONES, TCS08, T-PARC and YOTC Russell L. Elsberry Graduate School of Engineering and Applied Sciences Department of Meteorology Naval Postgraduate School TCS08: Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008
More informationCURRENT STATUS OF OPERATIONAL WIND PRODUCT IN JMA/MSC
Proceedings for the 13 th International Winds Workshop 27 June - 1 July 2016, Monterey, California, USA CURRENT STATUS OF OPERATIONAL WIND PRODUCT IN JMA/MSC Kazuki Shimoji and Kenichi Nonaka JMA/MSC,
More informationPAGASA s Expectations of New-generation Satellites for Hazard Monitoring
Country Report Philippines PAGASA s Expectations of New-generation Satellites for Hazard Monitoring VICENTE P. PALCON, JR. (Assistant Weather Services Chief) Weather Division- PAGASA DOST Email: vppalconjr@pagasa.dost.gov.ph
More information7 December 2016 Tokyo Climate Center, Japan Meteorological Agency
Summary of the 2016 Asian Summer Monsoon 7 December 2016 Tokyo Climate Center, Japan Meteorological Agency This report summarizes the characteristics of the surface climate and atmospheric/oceanographic
More information2016 and 2017 Reviews of Probability-circle Radii in Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts
216 and 217 Reviews of Probability-circle Radii in Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts Junya Fukuda Tokyo Typhoon Center, Forecast Division, Forecast Department, Japan Meteorological Agency 1. Introduction
More informationA review on recent progresses of THORPEX activities in JMA
4th THORPEX workshop 31 Oct. 2012, Kunming, China A review on recent progresses of THORPEX activities in JMA Masaomi NAKAMURA Typhoon Research Department Meteorological Research Institute / JMA Contents
More informationTropical cyclone track forecasts using JMA model with ECMWF and JMA initial conditions
Tropical cyclone track forecasts using JMA model with ECMWF and JMA initial conditions The Fourth THORPEX Asian Science Workshop Kunming, China 2 Nov 2012 (Fri) Munehiko Yamaguchi 1, Tetsuo Nakazawa 1,2
More informationImpact of the Loss of QuikSCAT on NOAA NWS Marine Warning and
Impact of the Loss of QuikSCAT on NOAA NWS Marine Warning and Forecast Operations Joseph Sienkiewicz 1 Michael J. Brennan 2, Richard Knabb 3, Paul S. Chang 4, Hugh Cobb 2, Zorana J. Jelenak 5, Khalil A.
More informationTROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY PRODUCTS LECTURE 1C: WIND PROBABILITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY PRODUCTS LECTURE 1C: WIND PROBABILITY Russell L. Elsberry Materials provided by Mark DeMaria and John Knaff Outline What contributes most uncertainty to wind at a point? CIRA
More informationUsing Flight Level Data to Improve Historical Tropical Cyclone Databases
Using Flight Level Data to Improve Historical Tropical Cyclone Databases Dr. Jonathan L. Vigh Shanghai Typhoon Institute 12 July 2018 NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation On the Need for
More informationDust Storm: An Extreme Climate Event in China
Dust Storm: An Extreme Climate Event in China ZHENG Guoguang China Meteorological Administration Beijing, China, 100081 zgg@cma.gov.cn CONTENTS 1. Climatology of dust storms in China 2. Long-term variation
More informationHurricane Structure: Theory and Diagnosis
Hurricane Structure: Theory and Diagnosis 7 March, 2016 World Meteorological Organization Workshop Chris Landsea Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov National Hurricane Center, Miami Outline Structure of Hurricanes
More informationHIGH SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS GENERATION, ERROR CHARACTERIZATION AND ASSIMILATION
HIGH SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS GENERATION, ERROR CHARACTERIZATION AND ASSIMILATION John Le Marshall Director, JCSDA 2004-2007 CAWCR 2007-2010 John Le Marshall 1,2, Rolf
More informationNHC Ensemble/Probabilistic Guidance Products
NHC Ensemble/Probabilistic Guidance Products Michael Brennan NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC Mark DeMaria NESDIS/STAR HFIP Ensemble Product Development Workshop 21 April 2010 Boulder, CO 1 Current Ensemble/Probability
More information