Storm Surge Modelling at the JRC. A. Annunziato

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1 Storm Surge Modelling at the JRC A. Annunziato

2 Storm Surge Activities The following modelling activities are carried out at JRC Tsunami wave height forecast Cyclones Storm Surge The activities are performed in the frame of the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS) An activity performed in collaboration between UN-OCHA, UNOSAT and the JRC to alert the Humanitarian Community of large disasters

3 GDACS Architecture & functions JTC USGS PDC Analysis & Alerting EMSC Geofon IM SMS FAX JRC Online Calculation System Tsunami travel time Tsunami propagation Cyclones analysis GIS analyses Geo Layers

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5 Tropical Cyclones in GDACS GIOVANNA 9-21 Feb 2012 Madagascar Uragano Categoria 4 (SSHS) Vmax = 232 km/h Pc = 932 mbar Winds Rainfall STORM SURGE

6 Tropical Cyclones: Storm Surge (2/2) Tropical Cyclon Monitoring Centers IRENE Hurricane Aug 2011 TC BULLETINS Track Maximum wind Wind radii WIND RADII TREATMENT by a Monte Carlo Method Vmax Wind Radii HOLLAND S MODEL PRESSURE and WIND FIELDS HyFlux2 ASGARD INUNDATION MAPS WIND INPACT ASSESMENT GDACS

7 Tropical Cyclones Online cyclones track analysis every 6 h in order to identify when the conditions for wind intensity and precipitation may lead to dangerous situations JRC Partners Pacific Disasters Center (track collection and formatting) NOAA (Tropical Rainfall Potential) JRC contribution Track Analysis Storm surge prediction Users Alerting Global Flood Detection System

8 From bulletins to pressure/winds Input: Output: Vmax, Wind radii Pc, Rmax, B, k Bulletins WIND RADII TREATMENT by a Monte Carlo Method Vmax Wind Radii Holland Model parameters: Central Pressure, Max Radius, k (B=f(Vmax,Pn,Pc)

9 Current Technique: Bulletins (G. Franchello, P. Probst, 2010) Based on the reconstruction of the pressure and wind field from the textual bulletins to follow Holland Model WTPN32 PGTW ! MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//! SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//! RMKS/! 1. TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WARNING NR 007! UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 24W! 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC! MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE! WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY! ---! WARNING POSITION:! Z --- NEAR 15.2N 126.5E! MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS DEGREES AT 13 KTS! POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM! POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE! PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:! MAX SUSTAINED WINDS KT, GUSTS 080 KT! WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY! RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT! 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT! 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT! 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT! RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT! 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT! 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT! 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT! REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 126.5E! ---! FORECASTS:! 12 HRS, VALID AT:! Z N 124.9E! MAX SUSTAINED WINDS KT, GUSTS 090 KT! WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY! RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT! 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT!! LOCATION 50 knots 34 knots 25 NM 50 NM QUADRANT OF 50,34 KNOTS AND THEIR DISTANCE

10 Automatic procedure Every 6h in the Atlantic or 12h in the Pacific we download the bulletin parameters and initialize HYFLUX2 code

11 Dp/Dx, Dp/Dy, Ux, Uy

12 HAIYAN animation

13 GDACS pages for HAIYAN

14 Estimated storm surge HAIYAN Typhoon Storm Surge SituaDon published 4/11/2013 (- 4 days before strucking) IdenDficaDon of mostly affected areas Busuanga, Culion And Coron Islands 1.5 m Tacloban 2.8 m Panay Island 1.8 m

15 News coverage with JRC data

16 A new approach based on ECMWF As of 2013, the European Center for Medium Weather Forecast is providing estimations with a much finer grid (50 km -> 16 km) Therefore it is possible to use their pressure and velocity fields to impose to the hydraulic calculations Daily Forecasts related to 00:00 and 12:00 available few hours after the related time (about 6h) for 72h forecast period The maps have to be interpolated and used as boundary conditions to the HYFLUX code Preliminary tests on the basis of an informal agreement with ECMWF for the download of daily forecast in a non-operational mode Advantage is that it is possible to analyse also extra tropical cycones (e.g. St. Jude event 2 weeks ago)

17 Pressure and max wind available

18 Time & Space raster interpolation

19 Pilot calculations with ECMWF Cyclone Year Results SANDY 2010 Good WIPHA 2013 Good PHAILIN 2013 Too low HAIYAN 2013 Too low

20 Sandy Cyclone October 2012 Very promising results in the first comparisons Bulletins Method ECMWF forcing method

21 Landfall area Atlantic City Bulletins Method ECMWF forcing method

22 Sandy October 2012

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24 1010 Pc (hpa) BT NOAA ECMWF /22/2012 0:00 10/23/2012 0:00 10/24/2012 0:00 10/25/2012 0:00 10/26/2012 0:00 10/27/2012 0:00 10/28/2012 0:00 10/29/2012 0:00 10/30/2012 0:00 10/31/2012 0:00 11/1/2012 0:00

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26 PHAILIN October 2013

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29 Phailin 2013 The maximum velocity is strongly underpredicted in ECMWF The minimum pressure is not correctly modelled in ECMWF and thus the maximum impact is underpredicted

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31 WIPHA October 2013 Very nice results with 2 cyclones at the same time several tide gauges to compare in Japan The behavior is strongly dependent on the history of the cyclone

32 The first affected location in Japan

33 The most off-center location

34 The point of max impact

35 HAIYNAN Cyclone One of the most severe cyclones Philippines: Too few measurements in the impact area Wind Radii model Unable to show the extent of the cyclone Correct estimation of maximum impact in Philippines in the larger damage area ECMWF Forcing model Vietnam Correct extent but maximum wind speed too low and minimum pressure too high Wind Radii model Unable to show the extent of the cyclone Impact extent not yet available ECMWF Forcing model Correct extent and good prediction of sea level measurements Impact extent not yet available

36 Wind Radii vs ECMWF forcing Wider impact But less intense

37 Estimation of cyclone extent Max Height over line between /5.65 and / Height (m) ECMWF Wind Radii MEAS PALAU MEAS YAP Distance (km)

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39 Comparison of forcing conditions Wind Speed (m/s) ECMWF Wind Radii 11/2/2013 0:00 11/3/2013 0:00 11/4/2013 0:00 11/5/2013 0:00 11/6/2013 0:00 11/7/2013 0:00 11/8/2013 0:00 11/9/2013 0:00 11/10/2013 0:00 11/11/2013 0:00 11/12/2013 0:00 11/13/2013 0: Minimum Pressure (Pa) ECMWF Wind Radii /2/2013 0:00 11/3/2013 0:00 11/4/2013 0:00 11/5/2013 0:00 11/6/2013 0:00 11/7/2013 0:00 11/8/2013 0:00 11/9/2013 0:00 11/10/2013 0:00 11/11/2013 0:00 11/12/2013 0:00 11/13/2013 0:00

40 Other topics on Cyclones esurge: use of altimetry for the establishment of sea level height Off shore altimetric data could be extremely useful to Understand well before landfall which model is better reproducing the current event To suffice areas where no tidal gauge are available (i.e. China)

41 All tracks, w/o considering distance or time (Jason or Cryosat)

42 Altimetry Tracks Analysis However not all the tracks are useful for modelling comparison We need to filter the tracks that fits in space and time with the Hurricane Track DT= 6 h Min Distance=200 km t1 t0-dt t0 Track is selected t1 T1+DT Hurricane eye track Min distance Satellite track t0

43 Jason2: Filtering on space (DeltaX=200 km) and time (deltat=6h), only 3 Cryosat tracks are useful 8 Nov 4:30 7 Nov 16:11 7 Nov 3:41

44 NORTH SOUTH

45 7 Nov :11 Wind Radii model 18:00 12:00 7 Nov :11 18:00 12:00 ECWMF Forcing model

46 Sea level behaviour at the eye position along the track

47 Wind radii swh x 0.05 Max Height over track Height at time of track

48 ECMWF Forcing swh x 0.05 Max Height over track Height at time of track

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50 Conclusions JRC is providing online storm surge calculations for every Tropical Cyclone occurring worldwide During HAIYAN crisis JRC estimation proved to be instrumental in order to identify the most affected areas and task satellite images production Our calculations represent an important support for many groups that trust in our estimations but the quality needs to be continuously verified with sea level measurements New developments, using ECMWF medium forecast, seem promising for medium and low cyclones (SANDY, WIPHA, FRANCISCO) but some problems were identified for large velocity events (PHAILIN, HAIYAN) The use of altimetric data from JASON/CRYOSAT could be quite useful to compare the quality of the model predictions but still work is necessary to have an operational tool

51 Thanks!