Storm Surge Forecasting and Warning in the Philippines

Transcription

1 Storm Surge Forecasting and Warning in the Philippines 3 rd Masterclass on Disaster Mitigation APAN46 Asia Pacific Advanced Network Meeting 08 August 2018 Jehan Fe S. Panti PAGASA-DOST jspanti@pagasa.dost.gov.ph

2 Introduction Jehan Fe S. Panti Weather Specialist RESEARCH and DEVELOPMENT and TRAINING DIVISION TROPICAL METEOROLOGY UNIT 5 staffs Storm surge and wave modeling Hazard mapping Field surveys Hydrometeorology, Tropical Meteorology and Instruments Research and Development Section (HTMIRDS) Tropical Meteorology Unit

3 Introduction Previous and Current Works Storm surge Forecasting and Modeling Storm surge Warning

4 HILIPPINE TMOSPHERIC, EOPHYSICAL & STRONOMICAL ERVICES DMINISTRATION as the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) of the Philippines is the authoritative voice in providing the warning for public safety The Philippines, through the PAGASA, is a Member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized body of the United Nations

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6 Historically

7 Historically IMPACTS of Storm Surge : TY YOLANDA 2013 SOURCE:

8 Previous works

9 Current works

10 Current works

11 Current works

12 Current works Use of Delft3D Model

13 Current works Use of Delft3D Model First Test: Typhoon Yolanda Case Set up: Intermediate Grids (2 km) Luzon Visayas Mindanao Palawan Detailed Grid (200 m) Tacloban Overall Philippine Grid (10 km Resolution)

14 Current works Project involvements: Storm Surge Forecasting Assessment (JMA Storm Surge Model) MECO-TECO Improvement of Forecast Capability on Weather, Marine Meteorology and Short Range Climate - Project 1: Typhoon Formation, Structure and Intensity Change in Western NP and Wave Observation and Modeling Proposed Projects: Improving Advice and Understanding needs of High Impact Weather Development of Impact-Based Forecasting Approaches (Newton Agham) A Dispersive Long-Wave Model for Predicting Coastal Flooding due to Storm Surges and Surface Waves in Manila Bay

15 Storm Surge Modeling and Forecasting

16 Storm Surge Modeling and Forecasting Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Storm Surge Model 2 arc-minute resolution Developed Graphical User Interface (GUI) for operational use

17 Storm Surge Modeling and Forecasting TYPHOON YOLANDA 2013 Maximum Surge Image Surge Animation

18 Storm Surge Modeling and Forecasting TYPHOON NONA 2015 Maximum Surge Timeseries Surge Table

19 Storm Surge Modeling and Forecasting Inundation Maps

20 Storm Surge Modeling and Forecasting Atlas of Historical Storm Surge by Province

21 Storm Surge Warnings

22 Storm Surge Warnings

23 Storm Surge Warnings Field validation of Storm Surge Outputs

24 Storm Surge Warnings Schematic Diagram of Storm Surge Forecasting and Warning TC Warning 48-hr before landfall (Watch) 1-hr after Potential Storm Surge Inundation Map 36-hr before landfall (Warning) Storm Surge Guidance Yellow 1 meter Orange meter Red > 3 meter

25 PROPOSED STORM SURGE WATCH (48-hours before landfall) coast/ Issuance of Storm Surge Watch and Warning based on latest Tropical Cyclone track and intensity

26 PROPOSED STORM SURGE WARNING (24-hours before landfall) coast/ Issuance of Storm Surge Watch and Warning based on latest Tropical Cyclone track and intensity

27 Storm Surge Warnings Interactive viewing of potential inundation depth using MDSI (PAGASA website) By Province Up to Barangay level By Municipality

28 Storm Surge Warnings Can also be viewed using Google Earth

29 Storm Surge Warnings PAGASA IMPACT-BASED STORM SURGE WARNING SYSTEM NO ACTION REQUIRED Evacuation NOT necessary. Storm Surge is POSSIBLE BE AWARE Get READY. Stay away from the coast or beach. Storm Surge is EXPECTED BE PREPARED Conditions could be Life Threatening. Follow evacuation guidance from local authorities when required. Significant THREAT TO LIFE TAKE ACTION Catastrophic. MANDATORY EVACUATION is enforced.

30 Storm Surge Warnings

31 Wave Modeling Set up: WNP : GSM 0.25 input Data PH & VISAYAS : WRF input Data

32 THANK YOU! Website: Facebook: pagasa.dost.gov.ph Typhoon Climate Flood IEC

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