Bistandsprosjekter i Sørøst-Asia

Transcription

1 Bistandsprosjekter i Sørøst-Asia -Sikre liv og verdier Lars R. Hole, Hanneke Luijting, Tor Ivar Mathisen og Kristine Gjesdal September 2017 Norwegian Meteorological Institute

2 Background Ministry of Foreign Affairs Norway initiated contact with MET Norway 2011/2012 Contribute to capacity building directly with MET partners in targeted countries Focus on early-warning, climate services and ocean modelling Status Ongoing in 3 countries in SE-Asia: Bangladesh (2012), Myanmar (2013) and Vietnam (2013) Separate project teams formed Collaboration with Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) in Bangkok

3 Motivation

4 Southeast Asia Densely populated - especially in coastal areas Long coast lines Vulnerable exposed to natural disasters: tropical cyclones, monsoons, flooding, landslides, storm surges, earthquakes Example: tropical cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, May 2008: more than people died...

5 Results Enhance decision making (strengthening of Early Warning Systems) Integrated forecasting tool developed at Met Norway Integrates different data sources In operational use at BMD (Bangladesh) and DMH (Myanmar) Ocean modelling and oil drift modelling (Vietnam)

6 Results Climate data analysis and products Data rescue and digitization of observations Training in statistical methods and tools Model verification: comparison of observations and model output (forecast quality) Monthly climate reports National climate reports

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8 Climate data portal (Myanmar)

9 National climate reports We would like to thank the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for the support of the capacity building project and special thanks to Norwegian Meteorological Institute for support for Capacity Building in Weather forecasting and Climate Services.

10 Climate Report of Bangladesh Launching ceremony 31. May 2016

11 Verification of operational forecasts

12 Mean Absolute Error for rainfall, RR24, GFS, GSM, WRF-GFS and WRF-GSM forecasts summer (April-September)

13 Example of event not well predicted: Extreme rain in NE Vietnam 26 July- 3 August 2015 >1100 mm in 5 days Causing land slides and floods Grossly under estimated by forecast models

14 Mapping observations

15 Typhoon and storm surge in Vietnam Typhoons in Vietnam - There are about typhoons per year and 5-6 hit land. Storm distribution in South China Sea Storm numbers monthly hitting Vietnam coast in the last 53 years

16 Damage due to typhoon Typhoon No (2013): 25 fatalities, loss 1800 billions VND ( 90 million USD)

17 Typhoon and storm surge in Vietnam High Vulnerable storm surge (abundant typhoon + shallow water) Less Vulnerable storm surge (rare typhoon + deep water) Less Vulnerable storm surge (shallow water +rare typhoon)

18 Use of ROMS ocean model for storm surge forecasting in Vietnam

19 OpenDrift -open source oil drift model developed at MET Norway -supported investigation of fish death in Vietnam in April 2016

20 Climate forum Ha Noi 2015, and in in Da Nang 27 Sept significant media attention

21 Challenges Lack of technical competence Poorly developed infrastructure Language and cultural differences Coordination with other international initiatives But very meaningful and inspiring!

22 Solutions Integrated software, adapted to current infrastructure Open-source. No black boxes User-oriented approach New or enhanced products and services Identify synergies across countries Learn from each other Strengthen relationships

23 Solutions Task leaders from both countries Ownership Hands-on-training Key figures Scientific publications

24 Regional workshops Hosted by ADPC in Bangkok once a year Focus at different themes, such as technical issues, marine forecasting, model verification etc Goal: To enhance the regional collaboration between the NHMS s in the region

25 Acknowledging their efforts

26 The future Funding New project in Mozambique with UK Met Office (UN) World Bank projects