2014/2/25. Earth Observation & forecasting Storm Surges in the North Western Pacific. Lesson Outline. RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center.

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1 Earth Observation & forecasting Storm Surges in the North Western Pacific Mr. Nadao Kohno Japan Meteorological Agency Lesson Outline Introduction JMA s responsibility and work as a RSMC, Tokyo Typhoon Center Situation of storm surges in North Western Pacific Storm Surge Information Storm surge model Storm Surge Watch Scheme Storm Surge Cases Ty Haiyan (33) Discussion Improvement plan Perspective of EO data usage Summary RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center Typhoon Center: a Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) To carry out specialized activities in analysis and forecasting of western North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) ( within the framework of the World Weather Watch (WWW) Programme of the WMO.) The Center was established in July 989, following a designation by the WMO Executive Council at its 4th session (Geneva, June 988). The Center conducts the following operations : Preparation of information on the formation, movement and development of tropical cyclones and associated meteorological phenomena Preparation of information on synoptic scale atmospheric situations that affect the behavior of tropical cyclones Dissemination of the above information to National Meteorological Services (NMSs), in particular to the Members of the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee.

2 Tropical Cyclones in NW Pacific The NW Pacific is the most active region for tropical cyclones (typhoons). Geographic condition Geographic condition The area vulnerable to storm surge large storm surge

3 Geographic condition The area vulnerable to storm surge large storm surge Rare Typhoons Geographic condition Mid latitude lows The area vulnerable to storm surge large storm surge Typhoons Rare Typhoons Operational Storm Surge Models at JMA Japan Region Asia Region Model dimensional non-linear model dimensional lineralized model Lat/Lon Cartesian grid Lat/Lon Cartesian grid Coordinate Arakawa C-Grid Arakawa C-Grid.N~5.N.~46.N Area 7.4E~5.E 95.E~6.E Grid resolution 45 3 ~ 8 (km~6km) ( 3.7km) Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) Time step 4 seconds 8 seconds Forecast hours 33(3) 7 8 times / day 4 times / day Calculation run (3 hourly) (6 hourly) Initial time (UTC),3,6,9,,5,8,,6,,8 Number of prediction In case of Typhoons: 6 courses (Center, 4 courses on the forecast circles, courses NWP predicted course) course (NWP predicted course) No typhoon: course (NWP course) forcing MSM GPV (5km) GSM GPV (km) Typhoon bogus Pressure profile: Fujita(95) Gradient wind (with inflow angle 3 deg.) Asymmetric component by typhoon movement 3

4 WMO Storm Surge Watch Scheme (SSWS) Real time storm surge information issued for TC Members by the RSMC Tokyo Storm surge distribution maps (.6 ) History Storm surge time series charts (.6 ) Request to WMO/SG to facilitate development of Storm Asia Region Storm Surge Model Surge Watch Scheme th WMO Executive Council (Geneva, 8.6) 8. 4 th Regional Association II (Tashkent) Global Spectral Model 9. 4 st Typhoon Committee (Chiang Mai) (GSM) plan for the establishment of a Regional Storm Surge Sea Level Pressure Watch Scheme suitable for the TC region. winds. 4 nd Typhoon Committee (Singapore) request to Members of providing tidal data & bathymetric Typhoon Information data to RSMC Tokyo. (System development in JMA) Locations, Central pressure, wind etc.6 RSMC Tokyo has started operation to provide storm surge distribution maps through its Numerical min. resolution (3.7km) Typhoon Prediction (NTP) website. 7 hours forecast.6 RSMC Tokyo has started to provide storm surge time 3 hourly product series charts at one point for each TC Member (forecasting 4 times run a day (/6//8 UTC) points to be increased in due course). 3.6 RSMC Tokyo extended forecasting region and added seven stations for time series charts. Product examples() Horizontal storm surge maps Whole domain maps and enlarged ones around a typhoon (3hourly, up to 7 hours) are provided. JMA Numerical Typhoon Prediction (NTP) Website (Only TC members are available.) (a) (b) (a) storm surge map (whole) (b) enlarged map (The map data can be downloaded.) Product examples() Time series charts at selected stations -Predicted storm surges / tides, astronomical tides, sea level pressures and winds are provided (a) Current ten stations: stations Macao, Quarry Bay (Hong Kong), Hua Hin, Chum Phon (Thailand), Incheon, Boryeong, Mokpo, Busan, Jeju, Sokcho (Korea) (b) 9 stations (Philippines), stations (Vietnam), and station (Guam) are going to be added in 4. Stations will further increase upon request from TC Example of a time series data at Quarry Bay (Hong Kong) Members (a) Predicted (red) and astronomical (blue) tides (b) Storm surges (green), surface pressure (orange) and wind barbs 4

5 Summary () NW Pacific is one of the most active region TCs are active. In Northwestern Pacific, storm surges are generated by typhoons and midlatitude lows. The typhoons in high latitude become Extra Transitioning, whose structure (wind fields) are different from those of typical tropical cyclones. In Northwestern Pacific, many places are fear of storm surges. Those areas are classified to two groups: () the coast where faces to large shallow water regions, such as East China Sea, East China Sea and so on () Islands or small bays but typhoons directly hit there and generate storm surges. Storm surges by Typhoon Haiyan (33) Bathymetry of the Philippines Operational Analysis 4 5 kt (65m/s) 98 MTSAT-IR /7 8Z 8 7NM (3km) 最大風速 Max Wind [kt] (kt) 暴風域 5kt [nm] wind radius (nm) 気圧 Central Pressure(hPa) 9 895hPa 88 Upgraded to TS Eastern Samar. northern Vietnam UTC 5

6 Storm surges in Philippines by Ty Haiyan Maximum storm surge by Ty Haiyan Maximum storm surge: Around 5m 4 Storm surges by Ty Haiyan.5 South of Masbate Island (Aside Gulf) 6 Leyte Gulf (Tacloban) /NOV. Date and Time (UTC) 8/NOV North of Panay Island 7/NOV. Date and Time (UTC) 8/NOV /NOV. Date and Time 8/NOV..5 North of Negros Island Storm surge (m) North of Cebu Island /NOV. Date and Time 8/NOV /NOV. Date and Time 8/NOV. 6

7 Ocean waves by Ty Haiyan Significant wave heights (m) UTC 7 NOV 3 6UTC 7 NOV 3 UTC 7 NOV 3 8UTC 7 NOV 3 UTC 8 NOV 3 6UTC 8 NOV 3 Wind setup Wave setup, Winds Wave setup, wind Wind setup Wind setup, Winds Wind setup SSWS Product for Ty Haiyan JMA issues storm surge distribution maps, but it becomes invisible when pressure contours are densely drawn. Predicted maximum storm surge: 3.7m 7

8 Lesson Outline Introduction JMA s responsibility and work as a RSMC, Tokyo Typhoon Center Situation of storm surges in North Western Pacific Storm Surge Information Storm surge model Storm Surge Watch Scheme Storm Surge Cases Ty Haiyan (33) Disuccion Improvement plan Perspective of EO data usage Summary Discussion Improvement plan To modify storm surge information (model products) To add more stations for time series To improve storm surge model accuracy (verification) Enhanced information (probabilistic / inundation) Perspective of EO data usage Currently no EO data is directly used for storm surge information in JMA. However, EO data is used in Typhoon analyses etc (indirect usage). JMA would like to utilize EO data in monitoring of tide, wind and so on Bathymetry data will be also effective for high resolution modeling However Accurate and Intensive storm surge information should be made and issued in local Meteorological Agencies (Capacity building is crucial). Capacity building JMA also trains staff of other National Met. / Hydro. Services and provides storm surge model for using their own operation. ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Attachment Training at the RSMC Tokyo TCP/JCOMM Technical workshop JICA training course individual visits (Recent one) Training and Capacity building on Storm Surge Modeling and Risk Mapping (4 8, June, 3, in Bangkok) Organized by Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC), Supported by UNESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness and the MOFA (Norway) Participants: PAGASA(Philippines), DMH(Myanmar), DOM(Sri Lanka), NHMS(Vietnam), and TMD(Thailand) Example of storm surge prediction by Ty Haiyan, operationally simulated by PAGASA staff (a) 3UTC (3 hours forecast) (a) (b) (b) 6UTC (6 hours forecast) Initial: UTC on NOV 8 8

9 Perspective of EO data usage Direct storm surge observation (storm tide, TWLE) tide information for large scale tidal motion monitor inundation area Indirect Typhoon analyses Land data for precise topography Observation data for other related factors (wave, rain, river flow and so on) Real time or non real time For operational purpose, EO data real time Summary NW Pacific is one of the most active region TCs are active. JMA is responsible for TC related information in NW Pacific. JMA has started to issuing storm surge information for NW Pacific region. The storm surge forecast is fair but it should be improved. For useful information, tide information (observation) is necessary, but observation network is not satisfactory ( Tide model and EO data). For accurate and intensive information, development of regional (local) forecasting skill is indispensable. 9