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1 National Hydro-Meteorological Service IMPROVING INSTITUTIONAL NAL CAPACITY (IN CASE OF VIETNAM) Country Report for the first meeting of the RA-II (Asia) Working Group on Hydrological Forecasts and Assessments Seoul, the Republic of Korea, Nov Presented by Tinh Dang Ngoc, NCHMF

2 CONTENT 1. Flash Flood Forecasting 2. IFAS Training 3. Mekong HYCOS 4. The Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) 5. Proposals for furture activities

3 I. Flash Flood ForecastingThree level system of HM Since Forecasts 2008 the Regional Flash Flood Guidance System (RFFGS) was introduced to Vietnam. The flash flood system is based on technologies that have been under application for more than ten years in the United States and an OFDA-funded FFG system previously implemented by the Hydrologic Research Center (HRC), the Central America Flash Flood Guidance (CAFFG) system. The technical method is based on physically-based hydrologic modeling involving soil water accounting, and the determination of conditions of extreme surface flow transport using available digital spatial data. Using continuously operating servers as regional platforms for analysis and communication, evaluations of flash flood threats will be done automatically for hourly to sixhourly time scales for all MRC member countries, an aggregation of about 8,350 small stream basins, each of which is in the range of km 2 in size. Satellite precipitation estimates are used together with available regional in-situ precipitation gauge data to obtain bias-corrected estimates of the current rainfall distribution and intensity over the region with useful accuracy and are used to update soil moisture estimates.

4 I. Flash Flood ForecastingThree level system of HM In Forecasts the flood season of 2009, the National Centre for Hydro- Meteorological Forecasting received and initially applied the Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS) of the Mekong River Commission (MRC) for flash flood warning in Viet Nam. The main task of FFGS for Mekong River Basin is to provide real-time flash flood imminent risk information guidance on a small-scale for selected area. In testing of FFGS application for the Ketsana storm occurring from 28 September to 2 October, 2009, it can be seen that the system has the capability of detecting some areas where flash floods may appear such as Kon Tum, Da Nang, Quang Nam and Thua Thien Hue. In the actual situation, flash floods that occurred in Kon Tum resulted in losses of people and property. However the FFGS also need to be further developed to cope with the needs. In addition to the application of FFGS in Viet Nam, within the framework of the project, a FFGS training course was organized in December 2009 in the National Centre for Hydro- Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) in Ha Noi, there were 20 participants attending the course.

5 I. Flash Flood Forecasting (Training at HRC)

6 I. Flash Flood Forecasting (Training at MRC)

7 Product of MRCFFGS application for the Tropical Storm Ketsana in September 2009

8 Product of MRCFFGS application for the Tropical Storm Ketsana in September 2009

9 2. Training IFNet GFAS/IFAS: system of HM Forecasts The International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM) was established as an integral part of the Public Works Research Institute (PWRI) on 6 March 2006 under the auspices of UNESCO in cooperation with the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLITT), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA), the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) and other related organizations. ICHARM spent the last two years developing basic tools for a flood forecasting system for ungauged or poorly-gauged basins. The tools include 1) a new global satellite-based rainfall map product (Real-time GSMaP) and its first-order correction method jointly with JAXA and 2) a software package as a fundamental tool to implement a flood forecasting/warning system called IFAS. In the past two years, a part of the system was implemented, and the system improvement cycle was started. The system will not be implemented by a top-down approach from a developed to developing country. Rather, ICHARM will aim at the system implementation with local ownership to help localities become independent in flood forecasting based on the following five steps:

10 2. Training IFNet GFAS/IFAS: system of HM Forecasts i) ICHARM provides an advanced flood analysis model to local practitioners. ii) ICHARM provides technical training for the practitioners to learn how to use the model properly. iii) Flood forecasting will be possible anywhere in the world, including ungauged basins, using satellite-based globally-available data (rainfall, radiation, topography, land use, etc.). iv) The local practitioners will realize that flood forecasting will be improved further in accuracy when local ground data are also used. v) ICHARM will aim to complete a forecasting system with local ownership. The system is not designed so that a developed country provides forecasting or warning based on ground data sent by a developing country (a pump-up approach to data acquisition by a developed country). The International Workshop on Application and Validation of GFAS/IFAS was organized in Tshukuba from 3 to 6 Aug., 2009 for 10 participants from developing countries. The IFAS now is tested and applied on experimental basis for several river basins in the Northern Vietnam with using satellite and numerical precipitation forecasting products from different sources.

11 2. Training IFNet GFAS/IFAS: system of HM Forecasts

12 2. Training IFNet GFAS/IFAS: system of HM Forecasts

13 2. IFAS Application: Luc Nam Basin

14 2. IFAS Application: LucNam River Sep 2008 Flood

15 2. IFAS Application: LucNam River Sep 2008 Flood

16 2. IFAS Application: LucNam River Sep 2008 Flood

17 3. Mekong HYCOS: system of HM Forecasts Vietnam has 11 stations in the system providing hydrometeorological data to MRC. Telemetry system provides data online from China (2 stations), Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam Establish software in member country for data query and retrival, uploading and downloading Including in-situ data from other stations, AHNIP projects etc.

18 3. Mekong HYCOS: Chinasystem of HM Forecasts

19 3. Mekong HYCOS: Lao PDRLatem of HM Forecasts

20 3. Mekong HYCOS: Thailandsystem of HM Forecasts

21 3. Mekong HYCOS: Cambodia system of HM Forecasts

22 3. Mekong HYCOS: Vietnamsystem of HM Forecasts

23 3. Mekong HYCOS: Data Retrivalsystem of HM Forecasts

24 3. Mekong HYCOS: Data Retrivalsystem of HM Forecasts

25 4. The Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP): system of HM Forecasts The Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) Development for Southeast Asia opened on 2 February 2010 in Hanoi. WMO was conducting this workshop to consider a SWFDP regional project for Southeast Asia to improve both the application of science and technology that supports forecasting and severe weather warning services, and to enhance the capabilities of NMHSs in more effectively supporting the disaster management and civil protection organizations within their countries, and coordinated effectively within a geographical region. For the proposed SWFDP in SouthEast Asia, the key is to enable developing countries in the region to make better use of NWP information from major NWP centres for improving their weather services in terms of forecasts and warnings. While it may be preferable to develop the proposed SWFDP separately for the sake of simpler project management, its objectives, scopes and target recipients need to be clearly defined to avoid potential duplication of effort with other initiatives undertaken or planned within RA II. In terms of information sharing activities directly or indirectly from NWP output addressing the specific needs of RA II Members, the following initiatives are relevant:

26 4. The Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP): : system of HM Forecasts RA II Pilot Project on City-specific NWP forecasts RA II Pilot Project on NWP support (provisionally called Asian Consortium for NWP Forecasts, or ACNF) This was proposed in the RA II 14 th Session meeting in Tashkent, and the idea is still under further conceptual development. A questionnaire to survey Members needs is being planned. Initial thinking is a virtual online resource centre geared towards technical research and training issues in support of Members with some capacity to experiment or operationally run NWP models. Other initiatives with potential relevance to SouthEast Asia are: World Bank GFDRR initiatives in conjunction with WMO DRR programme for five countries (Viet Nam, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Indonesia and Philippines) in the region. Under the JMA/MRI and Kyoto University MEXT-funded project of International Research for Prevention and Mitigation of Meteorological Disasters in SouthEast Asia, the setting up of a NHM users community. Typhoon Committee missions in support of disaster mitigation and weather services development in Viet Nam. Planned pilot projects for selected coastal cities under the Typhoon Committee s proposed Urban Flood Risk Management project.

27 4. The Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP): : system of HM Forecasts The status of the GDPFS in RA II, largely based on the Status of the GDPFS information posted on the WMO Web site. Participants are encourage to access and use the information as well as provide updates on their respective NMC s NWP activities where appropriate. Participants agreed in principle that the implementation of a SWFDP in Southeast Asia would be technically feasible and would bring benefits in terms of enhancement of technical capacity in operational forecasting and advancement in weather service delivery to Member countries in the region, including Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam. Specifically, the proposed regional subproject should focus on the following severe weather events in order of decreasing priority and associated hazards such as flooding, landslides, high waves and swell: tropical cyclone (both from the South China Sea and from the Bay of Bengal) track, intensity, structure changes and landfall process (wind and gust, rainfall and storm surge); heavy rain triggered by tropical cyclones, SW and NE monsoon, troughs and ITCZ migration, and orography; thunderstorms and hail associated with severe convection; cold conditions and frost; extreme hot and dry conditions associated with föhn effect.

28 5. Proposals for future activities: Using products of a global deterministic forecast model called GSM, a mesoscale deterministic forecast model called MSM, produced by JMA as inputs to hydrologic models for mid-term forecasting (5-7 days) for the Red River system in the Northern Vietnam. Continue testing IFAS for Vietnam river basins. Investigation of real time urban flooding modeling and forecast for Hanoi city in cooperation with DHI from Considering technical support from TC UFRM Project Need training workshop and technical transfer NWP like GSM products for RA II The provision of NWP likes GSM products, disseminated via GTS or internet (Web servers and FTP servers) is appreciated for flood forecasting in RA II. Need in professional assistance: real time urban flooding modeling and forecast; NWP in 5-day to 10-day lead time.

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