WGNE intercomparison of Tropical Cyclone Track forecast, 2007
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1 WGNE intercomparison of Tropical Cyclone Track forecast, 2007 Chiashi Muroi Numerical Prediction Division Prepared by Hirokatsu Onoda and Takuya Komori (NPD/JMA) History of Project 1991 : It began with three centers: ECMWF, UKMO and JMA, and the verification area was only western North Pacific : CMC joined : Verification of North Atlantic started : DWD joined. Verification of eastern North Pacific started : Verification of Southern Hemisphere, north Indian Ocean and Central Pacific started : NCEP and BoM joined. A website for this intercomparison project was released : Meteo-France and CMA joined : CPTEC and NRL joined : 9 NWP centers participated in a project. BoM CMC DWD ECMWF JMA France NCEP NRL UKMO
2 NWP centers Participate Year Bogus data Horizontal Res. of provided data Model Res. as of 2007 BoM x0.75 T L 239L33 CMC x1.0 35kmL58 DWD x kmL40 ECMWF x0.25 T L 799L91 JMA 1991 Specification of Data used in WNP 1.25x1.25 T L 319L40 T L 959L60(Nov.) France 2004 used* 0.5x0.5 T538C2.4L70 NCEP 2003 used in rare case 1.0x1.0 T382L64 NRL 2006 used 1.0x1.0 T239L30 UKMO 1991 used x kmL70 * except for South Pacific and north Indian-Ocean 1 : TC Verification TC tracks on 2007 season Northern-Hemisphere [2007/01/01 to 2007/12/31] Southern-Hemisphere [2006/09/01 to 2007/08/31] Number of TCs, [besttrack data provider] 24 western North-Pacific [RSMC Tokyo] 11 eastern North-Pacific (including Central-Pacific) [RSMC Miami,Honolulu] 15 North Atlantic [RSMC Miami] 4 north Indian-Ocean [RSMC New-Delhi] 10 south Indian-Ocean [RSMC La-Reunion] Not yet
3 TCs to be verified Method of TC verification using MSLP TCs which intensity reached tropical storm (TS) with the maximum sustained wind of 34 knots or stronger are set as targets for this verification. The tropical depression (TD) stage of the targeted TCs is also included in this verification. However, the TCs which stayed at TD level all through their life are excluded. 1. Tracking Method local pressure minimum; a) First position (FT +0hr) : search from the best track position b) Second position (FT +12hr) : search from the first position c) Third and after (FT +24hr~) : search from estimated position from the latest two positions (all position searched within 500km 5 radius) 2. Verification Method Position Error km The distance between the best-track (analyzed) position and the forecast position. Along Track Cross Track bias AT(along-track)-bias : The bias in the direction of TC movement CT(cross-track)-bias : The bias in the rectangular direction of TC movement Detection Rate % Detection Rate (t) = A(t)/ B(t) A(t) ) : The number of forecast events in which a TC is analyzed at forecast time t on the condition that a NWP model continuously expresses the TC until the forecast time t. B(t) ) : The number of forecast events in which a TC is analyzed at forecast time t.
4 (a) Verification of western North-Pacific (WNP) domain Position Error 24 TCs in 2007 (a) WNP domain Detection Rate better DetectionRate PositionError map
5 JMA (a) WNP domain AT-CT bias map (FT +72) ECMWF UKMO CMC DWD NCEP BoM Meteo France NRL Scattering diagram of TC positions at 72 hour forecast. Red : Before recurvature Green : During recurvature Blue : After recurvature Y-axis represents position errors in Along Track (AT) direction and X-axis does that in Cross Track (CT) direction. Unit: km (a) WNP domain Central Pressure scattering diagram (FT +72) JMA ECMWF UKMO CMC DWD NCEP BoM Meteo France NRL Scattering diagram of central pressure at 72 hour forecast. Y-axis represents central pressure of forecast and X-axis does that of analysis. Unit: hpa
6 Time series of 2-day and 4-day forecast of JMA, ECM, UKM and 3centers ensemble in WNP domain. Position Error 2006 season 2007 season Detection Rate 2006 season 2007 season
7 (b) Verification of North-Atlantic (NAT) domain Position Error 15 TCs in 2007 (b) NAT domain Detection Rate better DetectionRate PositionError map
8 (c) Verification of eastern North-Pacific (ENP) domain Position Error 11 TCs in 2007 Including Central-Pacific (c) ENP domain Detection Rate better DetectionRate PositionError map
9 A characteristic according to the domain of Northern Hemisphere.
10 (d) Verification of south Indian-Ocean (SIO) domain Position Error 10 TCs in 2007 (d) SIO domain Detection Rate better DetectionRate PositionError map
11 2 : Verification using WIND data It s important for a model to express TC correctly not only the position but also wind distribution. A method to decide the TC wind structure of model Set the center to tracked TC point (minimum MSLP), average wind vector in each point of every angle θ on the concentric circle with radius R. The wind vector is interpolated from four nearest points of provided wind grid data (10m U, V). We set values to: r=25km, θ=2, R max =1000km We chose 2 cases in these condition : - TC structure is form of concentric circle - There is no influence of the topography - Being the stage which TC develops most Case1: T0705(USAGI) track forecast 12Z 28Jul Z 29Jul Z 30Jul Z 31Jul2007
12 Case1: T0705(USAGI) R50,R30 : 50kt and 30kt wind radius analyzed by RSMC Tokyo leadtime=0 means each model s analysis. leadtime=24 means 1-day forecast. Please be careful to this verification method depending on the horizontal resolution of wind data x 1.25 (same as Pmsl res.) x (Operational) Case1: T0705(USAGI) valid time : 2007/08/01 12Z 0.75 x x x x x x 0.375
13 Case2: T0715(KROSA) track forecast 12Z 01Oct Z 02Oct Z 03Oct Z 04Oct2007 Case2: T0715(KROSA) R50,R30 : 50kt and 30kt wind radius analyzed by RSMC Tokyo leadtime=0 means each model s analysis. leadtime=24 means 1-day forecast x x
14 Case2: T0715(KROSA) valid time : 2007/10/05 12Z 0.75 x x x x x x TC intercomparison website on JMA < Login ID: verif Password: wgne2008 (beyond 30 Nov. 2008) Contact: wgne_tc@naps.kishou.go.jp
15 EXTRA slides The time change of the horizontal scale of the TC. black line: 30kt wind radius analyzed by RSMC Tokyo. (Except for TD stage.) colored line: 20kt wind radius of each Initial date. (Because the forecast of most centers was weak at wind.) JMA T0708(SEPAT) T0709(FITOW) Track (Course) Pmsl (Intensity) Wind-radius (Scale)
16 BOM T0708(SEPAT) T0709(FITOW) Track (Course) Pmsl (Intensity) Wind-radius (Scale) CMC T0708(SEPAT) T0709(FITOW) Track (Course) Pmsl (Intensity) Wind-radius (Scale)
17 ECMWF T0708(SEPAT) T0709(FITOW) Track (Course) Pmsl (Intensity) Wind-radius (Scale) Meteo France T0708(SEPAT) T0709(FITOW) Track (Course) Pmsl (Intensity) Wind-radius (Scale)
18 NRL T0708(SEPAT) T0709(FITOW) Track (Course) Pmsl (Intensity) Wind-radius (Scale) UKMO T0708(SEPAT) T0709(FITOW) Track (Course) Pmsl (Intensity) Wind-radius (Scale)
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