Introduction to TIGGE and GIFS. Richard Swinbank, with thanks to members of GIFS-TIGGE WG & THORPEX IPO

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1 Introduction to TIGGE and GIFS Richard Swinbank, with thanks to members of GIFS-TIGGE WG & THORPEX IPO GIFS-TIGGE/NCAR/NOAA Workshop on EPS developments, June 2012

2 TIGGE THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble A major component of THORPEX: a WMO World Weather Research Programme to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2-week high-impact weather forecasts GEO task WE-01-C1 Global Multi-Model Prediction System for High-Impact Weather Objectives: Enhance collaboration on ensemble prediction, both internationally and between operational centres & universities. Facilitate research on ensemble prediction methods, especially methods to combine ensembles and to correct systematic errors Enable evolution towards a prototype operational system, the Global Interactive Forecast System

3 TIGGE data Ten of the leading global forecast centres are providing regular ensemble predictions to support research on predictability, dynamical processes and the development of probabilistic forecasting methods. TIGGE data is made available for research after a 48-hour delay. TIGGE data flows

4 TIGGE features All data are archived at native resolution (on native grid when possible) Data may be interpolated on any limited-area lat-lon grid defined by the user just before download Field names, definitions, units, accumulation times, (etc.) are fully standardized Data gaps are continuously monitored and every effort is made to repair them quickly All data provided in GRIB2 (WMO standard data format) AMS - IIPS Predictability science academic NHMS users NCAR EPS 1 EPS 2 EPS n Slide 4 ECMWF Applications CMA

5 Volume (GB) Number of Users (Count) TIGGE Archive The TIGGE database now contains over five years of global forecast data. Data volume now exceeds 520 terabytes (2.6 billion fields). Around 100 users access TIGGE data every month /2012 TIGGE Archive Usage (All Portals) Vol Accessed (GB) Vol Delivered (GB) # Active Users Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar- 11 Apr-11 May- 11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Month

6 Summary of TIGGE database Centre Ensemble members Output data resolution Forecast length Forecasts per day Fields (out of 73) Start date BoM* º x 1.50º 10 day Sep 07 CMA º x 0.56º 10 day May 07 MSC º x 0.9º 16 day Oct 07 CPTEC º x 0.94º 15 day Feb 08 ECMWF 51 N200 (Reduced Gaussian) N128 after day day Oct 06 JMA º x 0.56º 9 day Oct 06 KMA º x 0.38º 10 day Dec 07 Météo-France º x 1.50º 4.5 day Oct 07 NCEP º x 1.00º 16 day Mar 07 UKMO º x 0.55º 15 day Oct 06 * Delivery of BoM data currently suspended

7 Information about TIGGE Major Article in BAMS New leaflet to publicise TIGGE to researchers Contribution in GEO book Crafting Geoinformation Tropical cyclone case study in WMO Bulletin TIGGE website

8 TIGGE Research Following the successful establishment of the TIGGE dataset, the main focus of the GIFS-TIGGE working group has shifted towards research on ensemble forecasting. Particular topics of interest include: a posteriori calibration of ensemble forecasts; combination of ensembles produced by multiple models; research on and development of probabilistic forecast products. As illustrated by today s workshop, we are broadening our range of interest to cover improvement of EPSs, including: representing uncertainties in initial conditions stochastic physics & other techniques to account for model error TIGGE data is also invaluable as a resource for a wide range of research projects. Over 50 articles related to TIGGE have been published in the scientific literature

9 Towards the Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS) Many weather forecast situations are low probability but high risk unlikely but potentially catastrophic. Probabilistic forecasting is a powerful tool to improve early warning of high-impact events. Using the TIGGE dataset, we are developing and evaluating probabilistic products to deliver improved forecasts of high-impact weather. The products are focused on Tropical cyclones Heavy precipitation Strong winds

10 Links with Severe Weather FDP We are collaborating with WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) and other projects to ensure that products address needs of operational forecasters and end users; to provide an environment for the evaluation of prototype products. GIFS will use global-regionalnational cascade pioneered by the SWFDP. Web-enabled technology will be used for generation and distribution of products. In-Situ Observations EPS1 EPS2 EPS3 National Centre users Airborne Observations Generate Products Regional Centre users National Centre users Satellite Observations National Centre users

11 Tropical cyclones The GIFS-TIGGE working group first set up a pilot project for the exchange of real-time tropical cyclone track predictions using Cyclone XML format, initially to support the THORPEX Pacific- Asia Regional Campaign (T-PARC) Several types of products to support TC forecasting have been developed using those data. Example of combined TC track forecasts (Met Office + ECMWF)

12 Warnings of other severe weather events More recently, prototype products have been developed based on gridded forecast data, such as this product which highlights the risk of heavy rainfall. Similar products also available for hot & cold temperatures, strong winds Prototype product courtesy Mio Matsueda

13 Steps to progress use of GIFS products in SWFDP Progress so far TC products based on CXML data; prototype products based on gridded TIGGE forecast data Provided documentation of prototype products GIFS-TIGGE WG co-chair attended recent SWFDP SG meeting Seek feedback from RSMCs coordinating SWFDP regional subprojects Future Develop real-time products for SWFDP based on preferred prototypes, e.g., Multi-model versions of TC products; near real-time versions of highest priority rainfall products. Supply products to SWFDP regional websites Provide training on GIFS products via SWFDP