GIFS-TIGGE working group Report to ICSC. Richard Swinbank Masayuki Kyouda with thanks to other members of GIFS-TIGGE WG and the THORPEX IPO

Transcription

1 GIFS-TIGGE working group Report to ICSC Richard Swinbank Masayuki Kyouda with thanks to other members of GIFS-TIGGE WG and the THORPEX IPO ICSC-11, Geneva, July 2013

2 GIFS-TIGGE report Working group membership TIGGE archive status Recent research using TIGGE Update on collaboration with SWFDP Future of the TIGGE archive and TIGGE-LAM

3 TIGGE working group Membership Co-chairs: Richard Swinbank, Met Office Members: Philippe Arbogast, Météo-France Jiandong Gong, CMA Seung-Woo Lee, KMA Osvaldo Moraes, CPTEC Mike Naughton, BoM Masayuki Kyouda, JMA Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SIM David Richardson, ECMWF Doug Schuster, NCAR Laurie Wilson, EC - retired Yuejian Zhu, NCEP

4 TIGGE project Since 2006, TIGGE has been collecting ensemble predictions from 10 of the leading global forecast centres. TIGGE data are made available after a 48-hour delay, to support research on probabilistic forecasting methods, predictability and dynamical processes.

5 TIGGE archive usage Recent usage (all data portals)

6 TIGGE publications About 70 TIGGE-related publications are listed on TIGGE website. But this graph indicates that we seem to be missing many references from the website. Search for keywords tigge and thorpex in Wiley and AMS publications, Courtesy of Haruki YAMAGUCHI (JMA)

7 Intercomparison of TC track predictions in the western North Pacific The Position ensemble errors (km) mean of 1- has to 5-day better TC track performance predictions by than the unperturbed the control prediction control member in (unfilled general bars) and and the ensemble improvement mean (filled rate bars) is of relatively each SME. large for the longer prediction times. The circle (hyphen) mark means that the difference in the errors between the control member and ensemble mean is (not) statistically significant at the 95 % significance level. Yamaguchi et al. (2012, QJRMS)

8 Verification result of TC strike probability prediction Strike prob. is computed at every 1 deg. over the responsibility area of RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center (0-60 N, 100 E-180 ) based on the same definition as Van der Grijn (2002). Then the reliability of the probabilistic forecasts is verified. Reliability Diagram -Verification for ECMWF EPS- In an ideal system, the red line is equal to a line with a slope of 1 (black dot line). The number of samples (grid points) predicting the event is shown by dashed blue boxes, and the number of samples that the event actually happened is shown by dashed green boxes, corresponding to y axis on the right.

9 Benefit of MCGE over SME Combine 3 SMEs Reliability is improved, especially in the high-probability range. MCGE reduces the missing area (see green dash box at a probability of 0 %).

10 Typhoon track prediction by MCGE-9 (BOM, CMA, CMC, CPTEC, ECMWF, JMA, KMA, NCEP, UKMO) Good example Typhoon Megi initiated at 1200 UTC 25 th Oct Bad example Typhoon Conson initiated at 1200 UTC 12 th Jul Observed track There are prediction cases where any SMEs cannot capture the observed track. => It It would be of great importance to identify the cause of these events and modify the NWP systems including the EPSs for better probabilistic forecasts.

11 GEOWOW (GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water) is a 3-year EU-funded FP7 project started September The Weather component (WP4) includes support for TIGGE: Development of improved ensemble-based forecast products TIGGE-LAM archive Time-series data for specified set of locations Provision of data in netcdf format as alternative to GRIB2

12 Multi-model ensemble forecasts of Sandy Multi-model version of the track and strike probability plots now available for SWFDP. Combines track forecasts from Met Office (UKMO), ECMWF and NCEP(USA)

13 Additional tropical cyclone products Time series of forecast measures of cyclone intensity NB. Although these forecasts give a good indication of the intensification of Sandy, global ensemble models are currently too coarse for quantitatively accurate TC intensity forecasts.

14 Severe weather forecast products SWFDP survey confirmed the need for near real-time version of severe weather products Joint proposal for realtime products developed by Met Office, JMA & MRI. High-priority subset of products to be generated in real time at Met Office, then transferred to SWFDP users. Product example courtesy Mio Matsueda

15 Near real-time processing of SW Current delayedmode processing shown in red. Planned real-time processing in green. Met Office and JMA/MRI collaboration, supported by GEOWOW funding. products

16 Continuation of TIGGE archive At the THORPEX ICSC-10 meeting, the GIFS-TIGGE WG was asked to consider potential future archiving requirements for TIGGE after the formal completion of the THORPEX programme at the end of ICSC 10(8): The GIFS-TIGGE WG is invited to consider, in consultation with the archiving centres, potential future archiving requirements (e.g. addition of supplementary data) and how these might be met in the post THORPEX era (including consideration of the number of archive centres needed and their possible roles). After discussion, the GIFS-TIGGE WG concluded the conclusion that there would be a basic requirement for at minimum: One archive centre to be committed to continue to archive TIGGE data and serve the data to users, and Most of the current data providers continuing to supply ensemble prediction data.

17 Archiving centres Working group representatives have indicated: ECMWF will be able to continue as a TIGGE archive after the end of A solution needs to be found the NCEP data to be provided to ECMWF (currently comes via NCAR) NCAR plans to stop all TIGGE archiving activities at the end of The NCAR model validation portal will continue to be available after the completion of THORPEX, and can be linked to by the TIGGE project. NCAR will continue to ingest/archive/serve TIGGE CXML data using existing infrastructure/standards after the completion of THORPEX. CMA is currently assessing the future of the Beijing TIGGE archive centre.

18 Complementarity In future, we should encourage Archive Centres hold different (complementary) datasets, rather than (nominally) duplicating the same TIGGE data. Examples of data include: Main TIGGE dataset (GRIB2) Tropical cyclone forecast data (CXML) Observation datasets Reforecast datasets Regional EPS (TIGGE-LAM for different regions) But it would still be desirable to have two archive centres to provide a back-up capability?

19 TIGGE-LAM It has been agreed that: High-priority parameters will be archived. Regional responsibilities (ECWMF Europe/Africa; NCAR Americas; CMA Asia) Regional Archiving TIGGE-LAM European archive at ECMWF funded by GEOWOW. How can we cover other TIGGE-LAM regions? New developments Increasing focus on convective-scale ensembles (with little overlap between LAM domains). HIW project proposed need to ensure TIGGE-LAM meets requirements of HIW project. Working group members have been asked to consider & clarify the future of the TIGGE-LAM panel after THORPEX.

20 Proposed expert team on Predictability, Dynamics & Ensemble Forecasting GIFS-TIGGE and PDP working groups propose: A new WWRP expert team to provide expertise in dynamical processes, predictability and ensemble forecasting, to support WWRP projects Its role would include providing scientific direction to TIGGE (and perhaps TIGGE-LAM) archives, and fostering use of those archives for scientific research. Proposal to be discussed with WWRP/JSC in joint meeting.

21 WWRP-THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE working group PDP working group TIGGE-LAM panel TIGGE-LAM dataset TIGGE dataset Users Predictability, dynamics, probabilistic forecasting

22 WWRP (after 2014) HIW project PDEF Expert team S2S project TIGGE-LAM dataset TIGGE dataset S2S dataset Users Sub-seasonal to seasonal and polar prediction, high-impact weather, probabilistic forecasting, RDPs&FDPs

23 Next steps WMO secretariat (in consultation with co-chairs) to prepare letters to TIGGE partners: To archive centres with the aim of confirming their plans regarding the future of TIGGE in the post-thorpex era To data providers enquiring about their willingness to continue to provide data to the TIGGE archive in the post- THORPEX era. Working group members to consider how TIGGE and TIGGE-LAM should best support and contribute to the proposed High-Impact Weather project.