continued discussions within the 8 interest groups on current research topics

Transcription

1 PDP activities during last 1-2 years continued discussions within the 8 interest groups on current research topics submission of BAMS overview paper on current PDP research themes (based upon IG reports) preparations for PDP summer school 2010 in Banff on atmospheric predictability specific support of THORPEX activities & projects (see next slides)

2 Interest Group reports on following themes 1. The role of Rossby wave dynamics in predictability 2. The large scale response of the atmosphere to organized tropical convection (e.g. MJO) 3. Predictability of tropical cyclones and of their ET 4. The impact of ET on the downstream midlatitude predictability 5. Ensemble prediction 6. Atmospheric blocking, low-frequency variability and their role in predictability 7. The impact of moist processes on dynamical processes and predictability in the extra-tropics 8. AMMA and further aspects of tropical-extratropical interactions

3 PDP Activities: Specific support of THORPEX activities & projects Planning of T-PARC NFS project on T-PARC Linkage with HYMEX (Hydrology in the Mediterranean Experiment) Input to preparations for T-NAWDEX (presentation by A. Dörnbrack) Start of / planning for national PDP research projects

4 HYMEX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean experiment) Towards a major field experiment between 2010 and Originally French initative - now international project with ISSC (with THORPEX representatives) Coordinators: Veronique Ducroq & Philippe Dobrinski Linkage with THORPEX / T-NAWDEX: Andreas Dörnbrack & Heini Wernli

5 HYMEX: Main Scientific Objectives Produce a new long-term and highly temporally and spatially resolved data-set over the Mediterranean basin Develop methodologies and models in order to contribute to basic needs of weather prediction, regional climate studies, climate impact, and environmental research Determine and/or improve the predictability of the water cycle, its variability and associated high-impact weather events Determine regional climate in present and future climates Major disciplines: Meteorology, Oceanography, Hydrology, Climatology

6 HYMEX: Main Scientific Topics Better understanding of the intense events: processes and contribution to the trend

7 T-NAWDEX: upstream triggering of waveguide disturbances Szunyogh et al. 2008, BAMS submitted

8 T-NAWDEX: downstream effects of amplifying/breaking waves

9 German research group PANDOWAE 4 PostDoc & 6 PhD students funded by DFG for 3 (+3) years Funding for basic research projects & involvement in field campaigns (currently T-PARC) THORPEX was a key factor for getting this funding! Coordinator: Sarah Jones Involved institutes: - Research Centre/University of Karlsruhe - DLR Oberpfaffenhofen - University of Mainz - Leibniz Institute Kühlungsborn

10 PANDOWAE Research Themes Upper-level Rossby waves: What triggers them? How do they develop as they propagate downstream? What determines their predictability? What is their role in severe weather events? Moist processes and diabatic Rossby waves: How do they influence the evolution of weather systems? What is their role for predictability? How frequent are diabatic Rossby waves? Adaptivity and Ensembles: What is the value of adaptive observations using different targeting methods? How can uncertainty be represented in ensembles in a flowdependent way? What insights come from TIGGE for PDP questions?

11 Project PREVASSEMBLE Funded by French Agence Nationale pour la Recherche Duration : 3 years (starting early 2009) Total funding : 780,000 euros Purpose: Study all aspects of ensemble methods (theory, practical implementation, validation, possible limitations,.) for data assimilation and prediction in atmospheric sciences. Three partners 1. Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace pour les Sciences de l'environnement Global, Paris (O. Talagrand, general coordinator of the project) 2. Institut de Recherche en Informatique et Systèmes Aléatoires, Rennes (F. Le Gland) 3. Météo-France, Toulouse (G. Desroziers) Funding available for : 4 post-doctoral position (Paris, Toulouse), 1 scientist position (Paris), 1 graduate student position (Rennes) Contact: talagrand@lmd.ens.fr, legland@irisa.fr, gerald.desroziers@meteo.fr

12 Coordination of UK THORPEX activities planning meeting in Oct 2008 organized by C. Schwierz & J. Methven strong interest for participation in T-NAWDEX preparation of several research proposals on different aspects of THORPEX - blocking and medium-range predictability - organized tropical convection and impact on extratropics - dynamics of severe weather events - from AMMA to THORPEX-Africa

13 Tasks of PDP working group (next 2-4 years) 1) Revise & resubmit BAMS paper with stronger emphasis on open questions and relevance for improving weather predicition. Mention linkage to upcoming THORPEX activities. Important aim of paper is to promote PDP strategy and specific tasks. Goal: resubmission in Jan 2009

14 2) Prepare & publish WMO THORPEX report based upon updated IG reports. (one chapter with 5-8 pages for each of the 8 IG themes)

15 3) Submit proposal for summer school on Advanced Mathematical Methods to Study Atmospheric Dynamical Processes and Predictability in 2010 in Banff (1 week, 40 participants) - done, decision expected in Dec 2008 Objective: education of graduate students from five continents on current techniques for understanding and quantification of atmospheric predictability Preparations for 2nd summer school in 2012 on «Dynamics of High-Impact Weather Events»

16 4) Organize sessions on - high-impact weather at IAMAS ensemble prediction at IAMAS seamless approach at EGU 2009 etc. and contribute to the organisation of the 3rd THORPEX science symposium in Monterey 2009 (programme chair: I. Szunyogh)

17 5) Participate in design, execution and analysis of field experiments: - summer & winter T-PARC (2008/09) - T-NAWDEX / HYMEX (2011)

18 7) Encourage studies of model diagnostics, predictability, ensemble forecasting and dynamical processes in Africa; in particular we recommend: - to compile a catalogue of potentially high-impact African weather events, and assess the quality of their prediction by operational models - to assess and further develop EPS for Africa. Which techniques are most appropriate? - to perform model diagnostic studies of African weather systems

19 8) Encourage submission of specific YOTC research proposals to funding agencies (e.g. NSF) on, e.g., the organisation of tropical convection, convectively coupled waves, MJO, impact on extratropics.

20 Tropical relaxation experiments at ECMWF Thomas Jung et al. Day6-Day10 Day16-Day20 Day26+Day30 (a) MAE D+6-D+10 Z500 CNT (b) MAE D+16-D+20 Z500 CNT (c) MAE D+26-D+30 Z500 CNT Control (d) MAE D+6-D+10 Z500 TROP-CNT (e) MAE D+16-D+20 Z500 TROP-CNT (f) MAE D+26-D+30 Z500 TROP-CNT Tropics - Control There is a pronounced spatial structure to the difference fields Forecasts for North America and Europe are benefiting in particular from a better representation of the tropics.

21 9) Promote the data sets produced by THORPEX through TIGGE, YOTC, T-PARC to both the academic and operational communities.

22 10) Encourage the dynamical meteorology community (in particular academia) to study the relationship between dynamical processes and forecast accuracy (e.g., diagnosis of forecast errors and predictability).

23 Dynamics of European forecast busts ana +3.5 ana +5 PV on 320 K R1 T1 R1 T1 fc +3.5 fc +5 T1 R1 T1 R1

24 Dynamics of European forecast busts ana +3.5 ana +5 PV on 320 K R1 T1 R1 T1 fc +3.5 Hypothesis: Too weak WCBs associated with N Atlantic cyclones lead to too weak downstream Rossby wave activity fc +5 T1 R1 T1 R1

25 11) Encourage testing dynamical hypotheses using the TIGGE data set (e.g., regarding how the largescale influences smaller-scale development).

26 ECMWF ensemble for Lothar 24 Dec UTC + 42 hours

27 Lothar EPS: 4 categories of low-level PV evolution Cat. IV: explosively developing DRWs are initially weaker than Cat. II and III Cat. I: decaying DRWs have too weak initial amplitude

28 12) Encourage further research on the following problems of ensemble prediction: - Further development and understanding of multimodel ensemble postprocessing techniques, in particular estimates of the relative weights to be given to the various members. - Assess the value of an ensemble of high-resolution deterministic forecasts vs. the value of a single- or multi-model ensemble at coarser resolution. - Continue investigation on how to best combine high-resolution deterministic control forecasts with lower-resolution ensemble members.

29 13) Establish closer links with the SERA WG and encourage further work in collaboration with SERA on issues such as: - user-relevant evaluation of deterministic and probabilistic forecasts - predictability of persistent flow regimes (e.g. blocking onset and duration) - quantitative precipitation forecasts for large catchments on long time scales. Establish closer links with WGNE (plans for joint session at future symposia)

30 14) Establish closer linkage with Southern Hemisphere PDP activities.

31 PDP research happens in many places (weather services, research institutes, university groups,...) Challenging task for PDP WG to - keep track of the developments - establish linkages between groups - help attracting critical mass for THORPEXrelevant topics