Science Objectives contained in three categories

Transcription

1 Summer THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts Science Objectives contained in three categories Increase predictability of high-impact weather associated with tropical cyclone (TC) formation and intensification over the western North Pacific Assess data targeting for improvement of TC track forecasts Examine processes associated with extratropical transition of TCs and downstream impacts

2 Operations summary Per Objective NRL P-3 Missions WC-130J Missions DLR Falcon Missions

3 Data Targeting System Interactive web-based system Developed by ECMWF in partnership with UK Met Office Funded by EU and EUCOS as part of Eurorisk PREVIEW Sensitive Area Predictions (SAPs) Automatic submission of 5 fixed areas Up to 5 additional areas chosen interactively Flexible choice of targeting time (t + 18 to 102 h) and verification time (t + 36 to 120 h) Customised for T-PARC by Cristina Prates, David Richardson, Cihan Sahin

4 Data Targeting for Improved TC Track Prediction Example of sensitive area predictions for six targeted data systems for the target time associated with TY Sinlaku at 0000 UTC 19 September 2008 and a verification time of 0000 UTC 21 September Data Targeting System hosted at ECMWF

5 WC-130J DOTSTAR DLR FALCON Targeting strategy: WC-130J - TC inner core DOTSTAR TC outer regions DLR FALCON Sensitive regions in large-scale environment Enhanced IR MTSAT 0915 UTC 11 September 2008

6 Forecast track incorporating data in outer storm and large-scale environment Forecast track incorporating data from storm inner core Track forecasts (12-h increments) from ECMWF model Initial time 1200 UTC 11 September 2008 cntrl obs Harnisch and Weissmann 2010

7 Data Targeting: Remotely Sensed Data CONTROL: Incorporates special AMV datasets from MTSAT (increased spatial resolution and 1-h time resolution) RAPID-SCAN: Incorporates 15-min interval images Incorporation of rapid scan imagery improves the medium-range forecasts NOGAPS Forecasts initialized at 1200 UTC 11 September 2008 Berger et al. 2010

8 Best-track locations of TY Sinlaku (12-h increments) and periods in which aircraft missions were conducted in support of ET objectives

9 Standard deviation among ECMWF ensemble members increased downstream of the transitioning typhoon. Also, considerable variability existed among forecast sequences of downstream development as defined by local eddy kinetic energy budget calculations ET Time Supplied by D. Anwender

10 Although ECMWF forecasts of the storm track and intensity were accurate, errors associated with the interaction of the decaying TC and the midlatitude circulation into which it was moving contributed to large errors in downstream development as defined by eddy kinetic energy over the central North Pacific (CPAC).

11 T-PARC-related PDP topics The effects of moist processes on tropical circulation systems Required increase in basic understanding Required increase in model capabilities Dependence on various parameterizations Sensitivities to representation of microphysical processes Resolution Increase in understanding of the interactions among scales (cloud, mesoscale, synoptic scale) and the impact on predictability Interface with YOTC Tropical circulation systems in global operational numerical forecast systems Model climatology Frequency Location Structure Evolution Relation to tropical cyclone formation Verification Probabilistic forecasts Hits, misses, false alarms Object oriented Non-developing systems versus developing circulations

12 T-PARC-related PDP topics Tropical circulation systems (continued) Relation to large-scale tropical characteristics Equatorial waves MJO ENSO Interface with YOTC Ensembles and forecast tropical circulation systems Multi-model and within model ensembles Optimal combination of information from multiple ensemble prediction systems Definition and implementation of techniques that maximize information content available from ensemble prediction systems Verification of ensemble-based forecast products Development of perturbations relative to tropical circulation systems such as stochastic physics. Interaction among scales to define favorable large-scale environments that will impact synoptic-scale, mesoscale, and cloud scale processes Extended range forecasts (monthly and seasonal) Regime prediction

13 T-PARC-related PDP topics Targeted Observations Continue to quantify dependencies on distribution of data relative to circulation features Inner core Near-storm environment Remote sensitive regions Identify dependencies on data assimilation systems Improve the ability to quantitatively predict the reduction in forecast error variance due to targeted observations Encourage continued analysis of T-PARC metods data sets and data sets from other targeted data programs. Examine the relative contributions of in situ and remotely-sensed targeted observations Process studies: Extratropical Transition and Downstream Impacts Improved understanding of evolution of key structures during ET Decaying tropical cyclone structures Increasing midlatitude cyclone structures Interface among features Identification of factors that impact downstream variability Examine predictability and dynamical processes using ensemble prediction systems Forecast verification Structural characteristics Timing Downstream impacts