The ECMWF Data Targeting System (DTS) and its use in THORPEX field campaigns

Transcription

1 The ECMWF Data Targeting System (DTS) and its use in THORPEX field campaigns David Richardson, Cihan Sahin, ECMWF Alexis Doerenbecher, CNRM-GAME, Meteo-France Sharan Majumdar, University of Miami Stefan Klink, EUMETNET Observations Programme, c/o DWD Slide 1 david.richardson@ecmwf.int Slide 1

2 Outline Principle of data targeting THORPEX beginnings A-TREC (2003) PREVIEW DTS (2008) What and how it works Use of PREVIEW DTS (mid-lat, tropics, polar) Conclusions from DTS Slide 2 Slide 2

3 Data targeting the principle Slide 3 Slide 3

4 Data targeting the principle Slide 4 Slide 4

5 Data targeting the principle Slide 5 Slide 5

6 Data targeting the principle Add a schematic here Slide 6 Slide 6

7 Data Targeting (or adaptive observations) The process of targeting observation involves the following main steps (1) Case identification: which forecast/region has potential high impact or large uncertainty associated? (2) Sensitive area prediction: where might a more accurate definition of the initial state of the atmosphere benefit the quality of the forecast over the region in question? (3) Observation selection: which additional observations should be deployed? Slide 7 Slide 7

8 Data targeting the principle Add a schematic here Slide 8 Slide 8

9 THORPEX aims for data targeting Is targeting a viable future component of the GOS, and if so, what weather events, regimes and forecast lead times should be targeted and what are the optimal targeting strategies? THORPEX International Research Implementation Plan. WMO/TD-No.1258, WWRP/THORPEX No.4. D.P. ROGERS et al, 2005 Slide 9 Slide 9

10 Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (A-TReC) First THORPEX field campaign, Oct-Dec 2003 Aim: to test feasibility of quasi-operational targeting of observations using a variety of platforms Proof-of-concept for future targeting field campaigns First attempt to control large set of obs systems 66 operational radiosonde stations in Europe and Canada (06/18) European ASAP fleet (13 ships) European AMDAR fleet (550 aircraft) Rapid scan winds from GOES, METEOSAT Dropsondes from research aircraft (NOAA G-IV, UND Citation, DLR Falcon Slide 10 Slide 10

11 Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (A-TReC) Virtual operations centre at Met Office, Exeter Twice daily teleconferences Sensitive Area Predictions (SAPs) on ECMWF web site from ECMWF, Met Office Additional forecast charts, SAPs and discussion via ftp server Slide 11 Slide 11

12 Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (A-TReC) Leutbecher et al., ECMWF Newsletter 102 Slide 12 Slide 12

13 A-TReC conclusions 21 cases with extra obs 23,000 AMDAR, 65 ASAP, 214 radiosondes, 277 dropsondes Overall small but positive benefit Twice as many cases improved as deteriorated Large verification area for more significant impact Differences between SAP methods Often no targetable obs in target area Often uncertainty considerably reduced between case selection and observation deployment (2-3 days later) Very time consuming - significant automation needed to make real-time adaptive control feasible Slide 13 Slide 13

14 PREVIEW Data Targeting System (DTS) Interactive web-based system to provide data targeting information and request additional observations to improve short-range (1-3 days) forecasts of potentially high-impact or high uncertainty weather events in Europe DTS developed by ECMWF in partnership with Met Office and EUCOS Funded by EU project EURORISK-PREVIEW and EUCOS Long-term trial to test operational feasibility Slide 14 Slide 14

15 DTS components The system consists of five main components which cover the targeting process: Forecast displays (selection of products to help the forecaster with the weather event identification); Case Proposal (online form to propose a potential SAP request); Sensitive Area Prediction Calculations (are performed for all accepted cases); Extra Observation Proposal (online form for lead-user to suggest areas for extra observation requests); Observation Monitoring (information about the targeted observations is displayed) Slide 15 Slide 15

16 PREVIEW Data Targeting System (DTS) Slide 16 System access: general (view only); restricted (edit online forms, users); privileged (make decisions, lead-user) Slide 16

17 DTS Components Forecast Products Forecast range: t+60 to t h step ECMWF : Deterministic+ EPS Met Office: MOGREPS15 Slide 17 Slide 17

18 DTS Components Case Proposal On-line form: Propose a Case 1. Select VT 2. Select VA 3. Choose TT 4. Add justification 5. Submit Slide 18 Slide 18

19 DTS Components Case Proposal On-line form: Propose a Case 1. Select VT 2. Select VA 3. Choose TT 4. Add justification 5. Submit Slide 19 Slide 19

20 DTS Components Case Proposal On-line form: Propose a Case 1. Select VT 2. Select VA 3. Choose TT 4. Add justification 5. Submit Slide 20 Slide 20

21 DTS Components Case Proposal Slide 21 A.case_id.yyyymmddhh (VT) Status : Accepted Slide 21

22 DTS Components Sensitive Area Prediction Calculations SAP request are automatically submitted for all accepted cases (lead-user responsibility). Sensitive areas i.e. the regions where extra observations are expected to have the largest impact on the forecasts for the verification area are obtained by two different objective techniques: Total Energy Singular Vectors (TESV) provided by ECMWF Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) provided by: UKMO based on their ensemble prediction model MOGREPS15 Meteo-France based on their ensemble prediction model PEARP. Slide 22 Slide 22

23 DTS Components Extra Observation Proposal A webpage is available for lead-user to suggest areas where extra observations should be requested accordingly to the availability of observations: For each accepted case, SAP results are plotted overlaid with available observations; Lead-user select region(s) to target; The user can comment on the lead-user suggestions; The lead-user has to review the comment suggestions and finalise the observation selection. Slide 23 Slide 23

24 DTS Components Extra Observation Proposal ECMWF: TESV summary map All Targetable stations + ships are listed Slide 24 Slide 24

25 DTS Components Extra Observation Proposal UKMO: ETKF summary map All Targetable stations + ships are listed Slide 25 Slide 25

26 DTS Components Extra Observation Proposal Meteo-France: ETKF summary map All Targetable stations + ships are listed Slide 26 Slide 26

27 DTS Components Observations requests DTS automatically generates and sends individual e- mails to providers (from according to the observation list accepted by the lead-user: i) Radiosonde stations (one for each observation) operated by the National Meteorological Services ii) ASAP Ships operated by EUMETNET-ASAP Programme (each is sent to dwd and routing to ASAP unit) 10 E-ASAP units : ASDE01, ASDE02, ASDE03, ASDE04, ASGB01, ASEU01, ASEU02, ASEU03, ASEU04, ASEU05 iii) AMDAR aircraft operated by EUMETNET-AMDAR Programme ( s are sent to the Slide Programme 27 Manager at UKMO) Slide 27

28 DTS Components Observations requests DTS Radiosonde coverage (conventional stations + E-ASAP) 25 April :00 UTC targetable operating not available 80 W 50 W 20 W 10 E 85 N 85 N 80 N 80 N 75 N 75 N 70 N 70 N 65 N 65 N 60 N 60 N 55 N 55 N 50 N 50 N 45 N 45 N 40 N 40 N 35 N 35 N 30 N 30 N 25 N Slide N 20 N 20 N 15 N 15 N 80 W 50 W 20 W Slide E

29 DTS Components Observations requests Slide 29 Slide 29

30 DTS Components Extra Observation Monitoring DTS provides information on a daily basis about the additional observation requested by the system Slide 30 Slide 30

31 DTS Components Extra Observation Monitoring DTS provides information on a daily basis about the additional observation requested by the system Slide 31 Slide 31

32 DTS News facility 4 categories: Technical (User) Meteorological (User) Announcement Technical (last 7 days) Announcement General (last 7 days) Slide 32 Slide 32

33 Summary of PREVIEW DTS 11-month trial (4 February - 19 December 2008) 628 cases proposed 548 accepted (SAP computed) Cases Proposed by DTS Users (4 Feb - 19 Dec 2008) 100, 16% 14, 2% 8, 1% 79, 13% 353, 56% 184 sets of observation requests 74, 12% 1402 radiosonde requests, 87% deployed Slide E-ASAP (ship sondes), 54% deployed 224 E-AMDAR (aircraft) Slide 33

34 Conclusions from PREVIEW DTS Successful demonstration of real-time adaptive control of operation observing systems Efficient - feasible for operational use (case selection, control of SAP computations, observation requests) Remote operation, multi-partner requests Monitoring of deployments (auditing, QC) DTS database of cases for future study SAP grib files are archived in MARS Slide 34 Prediction of ship position would be helpful Slide 34

35 Use of DTS in field campaigns PREVIEW (2008) MEDEX (autumn 2008, 2009) HyMEX (2012) GFDex (2007) IPY-THORPEX (March 2008) Concordiasi (2010) T-PARC (2008) and winter TPARC (2008-9) Slide 35 Slide 35

36 Medex Garcies L, Homar V Are current sensitivity products sufficiently informative in targeting campaigns? A DTS-MEDEX-2009 case study. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 140: DOI: /qj.2148 Campins, J., Navascués, B., Santos, C., and Amo-Baladrón, A.: Influence of targeted observations on short-term forecasts of high-impact weather events in the Mediterranean, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, , doi: /nhess , Jansa, A., Alpert, P., Arbogast, P., Buzzi, A., Ivancan-Picek, B., Kotroni, V., Llasat, M. C., Ramis, C., Richard, E., Romero, R., and Speranza, A.: MEDEX: a general overview, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, , doi: /nhess , Jansa, A., Arbogast, P., Doerenbecher, A., Garcies, L., Genoves, A., Homar, V., Klink, S., Richardson, D., and Sahin, C.: A new approach to sensitivity climatologies: the DTS- MEDEX-2009 campaign, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, , doi: /nhess- Slide , Slide 36

37 Medex Jansa et al., NHESS Slide 37 Slide 37

38 Medex Campins et al., NHESS Slide 38 Slide 38

39 HyMeX Ducrocq et al, BAMS. HyMeX-SOP1, the field campaign dedicated to heavy precipitation and flash flooding in the northwestern Mediterranean Used DTS to request additional observations Two-thirds of the requested radiosoundings were made over Spain and Southern France in order to monitor the upstream flow of the precipitating events. These regions often corresponded with the sensitive areas computed by the DTS. SOP1. 5 September to 6 November 2012 within the framework of the 10-year international HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) Slide 39 Slide 39

40 Norwegian IPY THORPEX DTS system for 3 weeks (25 February to 16 March 2008) SAPS for fixed verification region over Scandinavia ( N, E) Used to target flights for DLR Falcon Focus on polar lows Slide 40 Irvine et al., QJRMetS Slide 40

41 Norwegian IPY THORPEX DTS system for 3 weeks (25 February to 16 March 2008) SAPS for fixed verification region over Scandinavia ( N, E) Used to target flights for DLR Falcon Focus on polar lows Kristjánsson et al., 2011, BAMS Slide 41 Slide 41

42 Impact of targeted observations Irvine, E. A., Gray, S. L. and Methven, J. (2011), Targeted observations of a polar low in the Norwegian Sea. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 137: doi: /qj.914 IPY-THORPEX field campaign: SAPS for fixed verification region over Scandinavia ( N, E) Lead (forecast initialisation to targeting) time of 36 h (to enable flight planning and aircraft mobilisation) SAPS for three optimisation times of 12, 24 and 36 h. dry TESVs and ETKF DLR Falcon Clear improvement to position and intensity for 1 flight; no significant impact in 2 nd flight Slide 42 Slide 42

43 References and to do Rabier, Florence, and Coauthors, 2013: The Concordiasi Field Experiment over Antarctica: First Results from Innovative Atmospheric Measurements. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, ES17 ES20. doi: Slide 43 Slide 43

44 DTS for TPARC Interactive web-based system Developed by ECMWF in partnership with UK Met Office Funded by EU and EUCOS as part of Eurorisk PREVIEW Sensitive Area Predictions (SAPs) Automatic submission of 5 fixed areas Up to 5 additional areas chosen interactively Flexible choice of targeting time (t + 18 to 102 h) and verification time (t + 36 to 120 h) Customised for T PARC by Cristina Prates, David Richardson, Cihan Sahin

45 DTS for T-PARC SAPs from up to 6 different centres displayed in common format Icons toggle between calculations from different centres and overlays > 500 individual cases during Aug.- Sept JMA SVs ECMWF SVs NRL SVs UKMO ETKF NCEP/U. Miami ETKF U. Yonsei SVs Slide 45 Super Typhoon Jangmi: Targeting Time 28 Sept. 2008

46 SAPs from ECMWF NCEP / U. Miami NRL JMA UKMO U. Yonsei Slide 46

47 Summary Technical success Benefits? Slide 47 Slide 47