WWRP RDP COPS Coordination Structure Science Questions Status Outlook

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1 WWRP RDP COPS Volker Wulfmeyer Institute of Physics and Meteorology University of Hohenheim Stuttgart, Germany, the COPS International Science Steering Committee, and the D-PHASE Steering Committee Coordination Structure Science Questions Status Outlook

2 European Summer Experiments 2007 Domain of the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS), World Weather Research Program (WWRP) Research and Development Project (RDP) Period: General Observations Period (GOP) Period: full year of 2007 Transport and Chemical Conversion in Convective Systems (COPS-TRACKS) Period: Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Mobile Facility (AMF) Period: European THORPEX Regional Campaign 2007 (ETReC 2007) Period: EUMETSAT special satellite operation modes and data Period: Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region (D-PHASE), WWRP Forecast and Demonstration Project (FDP) Period: Andreas Behrendt, SPIE WWRP Symposium MWF Meeting, on Remote Dubrovnik, Sensing Croatia 2007, Florence, Italy

3 COPS (Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study) Goal: Advance the quality of forecasts of orographically-induced convective precipitation by 4D observations and modeling of its life cycle Region: Southwestern Germany, eastern France Date: 1 June 31 August 2007 Features: Severe thunderstorm activity but low QPF skill Information: COPS Natural convection laboratory Area (270 x 150 km 2 ) Mobile teams ARM Mobile Facility Large-scale and mesoscale observations provided by dedicated aircraft Supersite WMO/TD October No. 10, 1361, ; WMO CAS Report, WWRP MWF No. 1002, Meeting, 2006; Dubrovnik, Wulfmeyer Croatia et al. BAMS, 2007, submitted

4 COPS Organizational Structure COPS ISSC Science Overview Document Operations Plan Convection Initiation (CI) Aerosol and Cloud Microphysics (ACM) Precipitation and its Life Cycle (PPL) Data Assimilation and Predictability (DAP) COPS Coordinator: Operations Logistics Mission planning Model preparation Data archiving D-PHASE General Observations Period (GOP) Education at Universities and Schools

5 Education

6 COPS Science Hypotheses Upper tropospheric features play a significant but not decisive role for convectivescale QPF in moderate orographic terrain. (ETReC07, COPS, GOP) Accurate modeling of the orographic controls of convection is essential and only possible with advanced mesoscale models having a resolution of the order of a few kilometers (D-PHASE, COPS) Location and timing of CI depends critically on the structure of the humidity field in the planetary boundary layer (ARM, COPS, GOP) Continental and maritime aerosol type clouds develop differently over mountainous terrain leading to different intensities and distributions of precipitation (TRACKS, ARM, COPS) Novel instrumentation during COPS can be designed so that parameterizations of sub-grid scale processes in complex terrain can be improved (ALL) Real-time data assimilation of key prognostic variables such as water vapor and dynamics is routinely possible and leads to a significant better short-range QPF (COPS, GOP)

7 The Start at SuSi H on June 1, 2007

8 D-PHASE and COPS Data Archiving and Mission Planning Guidance COPS Operations Center (OC) Operate webbased data management system to visualize and discuss all forecasts and operational data available study radar and SSEC MSG analyses select missions of the day guide operations of the instruments visualize and discuss COPS measurement data Quicklooks NINJO and Synergy Fast and user-friendly interface for visualizing Meteo France and DWD forecasts operational data Real-time quicklooks COPS Instruments Quicklooks Quicklooks DWD EUMETSAT Data & quicklooks COPS/GOP Data Storage Operate data bank for COPS data GOP data Operational forecasts and analyses Research forecasts and analyses Data & quicklooks D-PHASE ETReC07... Real-time data GTS Assimilation Unique coordination of multi-model evaluation and process studies.

9 Impressions from COPS OC

10 COPS Website

11 D-PHASE Website

12 WDCC Website, ARM Data Archive

13 Supersite H Hornisgrinde, highest peak in Northern Black Forest,, 1164 m ASL TARA Radar, TU Delft Doppler Rotational Raman Lidar, Lidar, U. U. Hohenheim Karlsruhe/FZK Cloud Radar, U. Karlsruhe/FZK Aerosol Container, U. Manchester Water Vapor DIAL, U. Hohenheim X-Band-Radar, U. Hohenheim

14 COPS Observing Systems

15 COPS Highlights, Part 1 COPS web site as data source 34 IOP days in 3 months containing all kinds of forcing conditions Excellent data set and quality of networks: - Weather stations - Fluxes, energy balance - Soil moisture - GPS Special satellite operation modes (MSG RSS) Online inversion of satellite data available (SSEC) 1300 radiosonde launches EUCOS support (sondes, AMDAR during ETReC07) Targeting flights with DLR Falcon TRACKS measurements (transport of chemical species) EUFAR measurements (WV intercomparison, cloud microphysics)

16 COPS/TRACKS Aircraft

17 COPS Highlights, Part 2 Operation of 10 airborne platforms with 400 flight hours including aerosol- and cloud microphysics Unique sensor synergy at Supersites (multiwavelength remote sensing) Simultaneous 2D and 3D scans with sensor synergy Unique joint data set for studying - CI in complex terrain - Aerosol-cloud-precipitation microphysics - Modification of precipitation by orography - Extreme events (e.g., flooding in Switzerland and southern Germany during August 08 09, 2007) Online evaluation of models possible with D-PHASE products

18 IOP 13a/b, 01./02. August 2007 Explosive cyclogenesis in southwestern France Convection, clouds, and precipitation imbedded in Saharian dust outbreak Measurements coordinated with ETReC07 Intense precipitation expected in COPS domain Global models agreed well with respect to timing and location of CI but deviated strongly in the forecasts of precipitation distribution in COPS area Impact of aerosols?

19 ETReC07-Mission: IOP 13a G. Ehret und G. Craig, DLR, IPA

20 UHOH Water Vapor DIAL, SuSiH IMK Cloud Radar

21 First Results of D-PHASE (Felix Ament, Meteo Swiss) Probably positive impact of 4DVAR with slant path GPS detected. Convection permitting models seem to simulate CI better, they reduce the windward/lee effect, however, potential by far not explored yet.

22 Research Strategy Model validation High-resolution models Model tuning Advanced highresolution models Synergy of 3D scanning, airborne and satellite instrumentation Model physics Data assimilation, reanalyses Perturbation Improved forecasts Advanced process studies Multi-model ensemble prediction system Separation of errors due to initial conditions and model physics Improved representation of key processes, such as convection Studies of predictability of precipitation

23 Coordination of WWRP Projects Phase 1 Phase 3 Phase 2 April 2004 April 2005 April 2006 April 2007 April 2008 April 2009 April 2010 D-PHASE TIGGE+ AMF GOP COPS ETReC07 TIGGE LAM TIGGE Data archive Beijing 2008 FDP and RDP Vancouver 2010 RDP, Shanghai 2010 FDP MAP and IHOP_2002 experiences