First Results of COPS

Transcription

1 First Results of COPS Prof. Dr. Volker Wulfmeyer Institute of Physics and Meteorology University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany, the COPS ISSC, and the D-PHASE SC COPS design First highlights g COPS/D-PHASE research in MWF

2 European Coordinated Experiments 2007 Domain of the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS), World Weather Research Program (WWRP) Research and Development Project (RDP) Period: General Observations Period (GOP GOP) Period: full year of 2007 Transport and Chemical Conversion in Convective Systems (COPS-TRACKS) Period: Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Mobile Facility (AMF) Period: European THORPEX Regional Campaign 2007 (ETReC 2007) Period: EUMETSAT special satellite operation modes and data Period: Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region (D-PHASE), WWRP Forecast and Demonstration Project (FDP) Period:

3 COPS (Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study) Goal: Advance the quality of forecasts of orographically-induced convective precipitation by 4D observations and modeling of its life cycle Region: Southwestern Germany, eastern France Date: 1 June 31 August 2007 Features: Severe thunderstorm activity but low QPF skill Information: COPS Natural convection laboratory Area (270 x 150 km 2 ) Mobile teams ARM Mobile Facility Large-scale and mesoscale observations provided by dedicated aircraft Supersite 5. Hochwasserschutzforum, WMO/TD IHK Rhein Neckar, No. 1361, Mannheim 2007; WMO CAS Report, No. 1002, 2006; Wulfmeyer et al. BAMS, 2008, in print.

4 P R H S Supersite Radars + LINET DOW V 20 km range X-Band M GPS (D/F) 120 km range FZ Karlsruhe 120 km range POLDIRAD Mobile teams Further details are found in: COPS Field Report at

5 DO 128 MAP flight pattern Black Forest, Vosges, and pattern Supersite + Flux. P R H S V M Supersite Mobile teams Further details are found in: COPS Field Report at

6 BAE 146 flight pattern. P R H S V M Supersite Mobile teams

7 SAFIRE-Falcon EUFAR and MAP flight pattern. P R H S V M Supersite Mobile teams

8 DLR-Falcon FLUX and MAP flight pattern. P R H S V M Supersite Mobile teams

9 Supersite Weather stations: UK Innsbruck (A) U Vienna (A) (104 stations) Sodar P Soil moisture Turbulence R H M S V Further details: COPS Field Report at

10 AMF Supersite in Murg valley

11 D-PHASE and COPS Data Archiving and dmission i Planning Guidance COPS Operations Center (OC) Operate webbased data management system to visualize and discuss all forecasts and operational data available study radar and SSEC MSG analyses select missions of the day guide operations of the instruments visualize and discuss COPS measurement data Real-time quicklooks COPS Instruments Quicklooks Quicklooks Quicklooks NINJO and Synergy Fast and user-friendly interface for visualizing Meteo France and DWD forecasts operational data DWD EUMETSAT Data & quicklooks COPS/GOP Data Storage Operate data bank for COPS data GOP data Operational forecasts and analyses Research forecasts and analyses Data & quicklooks D-PHASE ETReC07 Real-time data GTS... Assimilation Unique coordination of multi-model evaluation and process studies.

12 COPS Impressions

13 COPS Research Aircraft

14 COPS Overview 35 IOP days with various forcing conditions. More details see COPS Field Report and COPS web site Integrated precipitation during COPS 18 Frequency Time (UTC) Diurnal cycle of convection Latitude ( ) Longitude ( ) Night (18-24, 0-2 UTC) Morning(210UTC) (2-10 Afternoon (10-18 UTC) COPS convection initiation statistics derived using MSG rapid scans (Fumiko Aoshima, IPM Master Thesis 2007)

15 RSS Overview IOP No. 1 Date MSG rapid scanning data availability IOP No. Date MSG rapid scanning data availability 05 Jun Yes Jul Yes 06 Jun Yes 25 Jul Yes Jun Yes 26 Jul Yes 08 Jun Yes Jul Yes 2 12 Jun Yes 01 Aug Yes Jun NO 02 Aug Yes 3 15 Jun NO 07 Aug NO Jun NO Aug NO 20 Jun NO 09 Aug Yes 01 Jul Yes 12 Aug Yes Jul Yes 13 Aug Yes 6 04 Jul Yes 15 Aug Yes Jul Yes 16 Aug Yes 7 09 Jul Yes 21 Aug Yes Jul Yes 22 Aug Yes 8 15 Jul Yes 24 Aug Yes Jul Yes 25 Aug Yes 9 19 Jul Yes 20 Jul Yes Data available during 83% of the IOPs.

16 COPS Treasure Chest Area-wide and synergetic observation of process chain High-resolution, 4D data set for process studies Coordination of WWRP RDP COPS with FDP D-PHASE for process and predictability studies High-end data set for data assimilation studies

17 Coordination & DAP CI ACM PPL Moisture Net (Hauck, IMK) D PHASE/COPS Process Chain & COPS Coordination (Wulfmeyer, IPM; Lautenschlager, WDCC; Steinacker, UniVie; Rotach, MeteoSwiss) COPS GRID (Bauer, IPM; Dick, GFZ; Wergen, DWD) SurfAce fluxes and Valley convection (U Bayreuth, U Mainz, Kalthoff, IMK) D-PHASE ETReC07 COPS-Austria COPS-France Lower and Upper COPS-Italy Tropospheric Forcing of Convection (Barthlott, IMK) Parameterization of Cumulus Convection (Küll, U Bonn) COPS LIDAR IFT (Ansmann, IfT) COPS CI Remote Sensing (Behrendt, IPM) Life Cycle of Deep Convection during COPS (Hagen, DLR) COPS-UK ARM EUMETSAT WWRP MWF

18 Summary and Proposal COPS process studies ongoing on: - land-surface exchange and ABL evolution - CI and organization of convection - Cloud and precipitation microphysics Project on predictability of mesoscale processes Suggestion 1: COPS-D-PHASE as data assimilation test bed Suggestion 2: ESF proposal on mesoscale weather forecasting within EUROCORES program

19 COPS Sensor Synergy July IOP 5a 5b 6 7a 7b 8a 8b 8c 9a 9b 9c 10 11a 11b 12 No. of CI events * Airborne * no MSG rapid scan data available on this day DLR DIAL x x x x x x x x Leandre2 x x x x x x x x x x Mobile DOW1 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x DOW2 x x x x x x x x SuSiH WV DIAL x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x RRL x x x x x x x x x x x x x Windtracer x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x CloudRadar x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x CNR MWR x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x SuSiR BASIL x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Doppler Lidar x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x CloudRadar x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x TARA x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x MWR x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x SuSiM BERTHA x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x WiLi x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x MPL x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x CloudRadar x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x HATPRO x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x SuSiV TRESS x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x CNRS RL x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x SuSiS Ceilometer x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x WTR x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x MICCY x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x POLDIRAD x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Remote sensing system operation times during July VIS RSS, IOP 8b, July 15, 2007.

20 MSG RSS During IOP9c

21 MSG RSS During IOP9c

22 Evaluation of Cloud Bottom in Collaboration with GOP Diurnal bias of COSMO-DE cloud base vs. ceilometer cloud base for July Only data where a cloud was detected by the ceilometer and simulated by the model (Courtesy Susanne Crewell, Uni Köln).

23 SSEC Madison Wisconsin Nowcasting Tools

24 COPS 4D Data Set: IOP 9c IOP 9c (July 20, 2007) Flux Components (W W/(m*m)) Global Radiation Net Radiation Soil Heat Flux Sensible Heat Flux Latent Heat Flux :02:00 02:02:00 04:02:00 06:02:00 08:02:00 10:02:00 12:02:00 14:02:00 16:02:00 18:02:00 20:02:00 22:02:00 Flux measurements at Supersite S Water-vapor and aerosol fields measured with DLR Falcon DWD radar network MSG RSS Scanning cloud radar at Supersite H Wind field measured with DO-128

25 High-end Data Assimilation Studies COSMO-EU COSMO-DE DIAL MM5_control MM5_4DVAR observation RADAR IPM GPS data assimilation study within COPS and D-PHASE demonstrates a significant positive impact on the simulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation. GPS Further sources for impact, targeting, and data assimilation il technology studies, MSG?

26 COPS/D-PHASE Data Assimilation Activities Sources for mesoscale data assimilation Data assimilation techniques: DWD: COSMO-DE nudging DLR: COSMO-EU/-DE latent heat nuding, COSMO LEPS, targeting using ECMWF 4dVAR UHOH: MM5/WRF 4DVAR Meteo France: AROME 3DVAR CNRM: Meso-NH nudging? Therefore, we propose COPS Further partners: / D-PHASE as WWRP data - JMA: NHM 4DVAR assimilation il testt bed - HIRLAM: 3DVAR or 4DVAR? - UK Met Office hybrid 4DVAR ETKF

27 Unique Interaction Between D-PHASE and COPS Windward/lee effect

28 Unique Interaction Between D-PHASE and COPS COSMO-DE MESO-NH CMCGEMH IOP 9c, July 20, 2007, 13 UTC, 15-min accumulated precipitation it ti

29 Studies of Process Chain and Predictability of Precipitation with the D-PHASE Ensemble and COPS Observations First results: First evaluation of D-PHASE models in COPS domain. Comparison between simulated and observed water-vapor fields during IOP 8b.

30 Studies of Process Chain and Predictability of Precipitation with the D-PHASE Ensemble and COPS Observations COPS 4D data set COPS website COPS, GOP D-PHASE data archive D-PHASE forecasts Case studies of process chain Evaluation Forecasts with different - multi-model ensemble members - parameterizations - data assim. and obs. systems - boundary conditions Analyze an nd improve mod del ensemble sk kills Investigate the initiation and organization of convection Proposals of suitable combinations for process studies in order to: Analyze specific failures of parameterizations and evaluate model physics optimal combination Evaluate the impact of different data assimilation systems and observations Studies on predictability by algorithms based on Bayesian statistics Extension of the results from the COPS to the D-PHASE domain