WG3 Heavy precipitation, flash-floods and floods. Guy Delrieu, Alberto Montanari Romualdo Romero, Evelyne Richard

Transcription

1 WG3 Heavy precipitation, flash-floods and floods Guy Delrieu, Alberto Montanari Romualdo Romero, Evelyne Richard

2 Scientific questions WG3-SQ1: What are the characteristics of extreme hydro-meteorological events in the Mediterranean? WG3-SQ2: How can we improve heavy rainfall process knowledge and their prediction? WG3-SQ3: How can we improve hydrological prediction? WG3-SQ4: How extreme hydrometeorological events will evolve under future climate conditions during the XXIst century?

3 WG3 Contributions ~ 40 contributions (with already some grouping) Substantial international involvment (France, Italy, Germany, Greece, Croatia Spain, Morocco, Cyprus, USA) Atmospheric / Hydrological Proposals

4 Observation strategy : EOP/SOP Enhanced existing observatories and observing systems in the key regions of high-impact weather: budgets and process studies (+ dedicated short field campaigns) Enhanced current operational observing system over the whole Mediterranean basin: budgets (data access data policy ) LOP EOP 2016 Western Med + Greece Phasing with THORPEX, HALO, MEDEX SOP 2017 Eastern Med? Special observing periods of high-impact weather events in selected regions of the EOP target areas (aircrafts, ships, ): process studies

5 Observational strategy 1. Make an optimal use of existing networks 2. Select a number of target areas 3. Identify appropriate upstream supersites 4. Complement the observations over the sea 5. Deploy a number of instrumented aircraft (SOP) 6. Define numerical products for the mission planning Document the entire life cycle of HPE events

6 1 - Different existing networks EOP SOP Wind profilers Wind, Moisture Lidars Aerosols, Moisture GPS Moisture Radars Precipitation, Wind, Microphysics Lightning detection Microphysics

7 2 - Possible HPE target areas CV AP FV DA CA VA CR Four contrasted areas (rural/urban, medium/high orography, including one semi-arid area)

8 3 - Upwind sites CV AP FV DA CA VA CR

9 3 - Upwind sites instrumentation RS / UHF / VHF / Sodar / RASS Lidar aerosol GPS Water vapor lidar or MW radiometer Operational radar or X band radar Optimal distribution of available instruments?

10 4 Extend the measurements over the sea Space (Cloudsat, Calipso, ) Balloons (boundary layer bal., aeroclipper, driftsondes) Shipborne instruments : RS, GPS, UHF, Local measurements (precip?) Aircraft (in situ, WV and wind lidar, cloud and precip radar?)

11 5 - SOP Aircraft operation SAFIRE ATR + WV Lidar LEANDRE II + microphysics SAFIRE FALCON + RALI + microphysics + DS? HALO (NEPTUN, THORPEX) + Wind +WV lidar IMK Dornier 28 (Turbulent fluxes) DLR FALCON?? NRL/P3 + ELDORA + Microphysics?? 1 M PIs need to be identified and/or confirmed

12 5 - Aircraft operations (1) SOP HALO NAWDEX BAE 146 TNAWDEX T- Far upstream precursors

13 5 - Aircraft operations (2) SOP HALONEPTUN ATR + LEANDRE DO 28 Close upstream documentation of the pre-convective environment

14 5 - Aircraft operations (3) SOP F-FALCON + RALI NRL P3 + ELDORA Sampling of the precipitating system with microphysics measurements for radar retrieval validation

15 6 - Modelling strategy : (e.g. AROME Med domain) Many other proposals but for mission planning ECMWF, ARPEGE, ALADIN

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17 An example HPE target area: Cévennes-Vivarais (CV) Upwind supersite GPS transects 4 to 5 X band radars Similar setting over Spain, Italy, Greece?

18 MAP IOP2B 6h precip

19 MAP IOP2B PV + 850hPa

20 Available instrumentation IMK ( Date?) 2 RS stations Doppler wind lidar (PBL/low trop) Cloud radar Surface measurements Univ. Hohenheim (?) WV lidar X band radar Univ Potenza (?) WV lidar LA (?) UHF wind profiler Radiometer (T, qv,ql) DLR (?) POLDIRAD Cloud radar (HALO) LATMOS X Band Radar (?) Hydrix (Marseille?)

21 Modelling strategy : Many HR plateforms AROME WRF MOLOCH COSMO MESO-NH Strong need for effective guidance Many proposals and probably more to come / Focus on Real time for IIP

22 Lidar network : Moisture and aerosol monitoring (G.Liberti) 11 WV lidars 3 movable Roma / Potenza Hohenheim Optimal location for SOPs? SOP : Corsica? Majorca? Montpellier?

23 GPS network : Moisture monitoring (O. Bock) SOP : Additional stations in specific target areas and on ships

24 QPF and HPE radar network (?? + O. Bousquet) African cost?? 3D Wind 4 years 15 Corsica Western cost?? + Micoph. Retrieval (SOP) Poldirad - Ebro valley??

25 Monitoring of lightning activity Defer et al. PROFEO, LINET, METEORAGE, ATD Multiscale strategy (storm, region, basin) Lagouvardos et al. ZEUS, LINET Link between the 2 proposals? Additional needs for SOP???

26 Wind profiler network (J.L. Caccia) Nice (uncertain), Minorca (?), Corsica (LA UHF,?) Montpellier Network dense enough for a high quality 3D wind retrieval?

27 Select HPE target areas EOP SOP (Ducrocq))

28 Select HPE target areas EOP SOP (Frei and Schär)

29 Deep convection in Fall (SON) AMSU B Funatsu et al, MWR cond. accepted

30 Rain + DC DC only Rain from GPCP DJF MAM JJA SON Data: NOAA Funatsu et al, MWR cond. accepted