facing Societal needs Climate science towards actionable information PM Ruti Thanks to: S Somot (CNRM) M DeFelice (ENEA) R Vautard (CEA)

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1 Climate science towards actionable information facing Societal needs PM Ruti Thanks to: S Somot (CNRM) M DeFelice (ENEA) R Vautard (CEA)

2 Challenges of climate services A short story Research on climate services Training and society

3 Ex1 the electric grid What about the electric grid in 2050? How will 2020 strategy change the electric infrastructures?

4 Ex2 Planning wind-farms An estimation of local wind conditions is especially crucial in the selection of the site. If the wind speeds are 10% smaller than expected, the energy yield will fall short by more than 30%, which can quickly cause economic problems

5 Ex3 Critical infrastructures Critical infrusctures: how to adpat to climate change?

6 Common points Stakeholders (policy-makers, industry etc) have relevant questions for climate science. Local and regional climate information Present climate and near future (6m to 10y)

7 Climate Services definition Information Climate Data Fill the Last Mile gap between large amount of climate data and user needs Users needs

8 Starting point: WCC GFCS

9 Starting point: WCC GFCS

10 The first EU research project

11 What is CLIM-RUN? CLIM-RUN ( ) Objectives Design and implementation of a Climate Services protocol for optimizing the twoway information transfer (bottom-up /upbottom) between climate experts and stakeholders Advancement of the science underpinning the production of detailed climate information at regional to local scales tailored for stakeholder needs Test of the protocol via its application to a number of real world case studies in the Mediterranean area (mainly on Energy & Tourism and Natural hazards) Climate Data Information Fill the Last Mile gap between large amount of climate data and user needs Users needs

12 What is CLIM-RUN? CLIM-RUN Case studies Tourism: Tunisia, France, Cyprus, Croatia Energy: Spain, Morocco, Cyprus, Croatia Wild Fires: Greece (see presentation Climate change and wildfire risk by C. Giannakopoulos et al.) Integrated Case Study: North Adriatic

13 Challenges of climate services A short story Research on climate services Training and society

14 Weather prediction and climate simulations The short-term to seasonal prediction and the simulation of the climate change need to define the different components of the climate syste: atmosphere land surface hydrosphere cryosphere la biosphère

15 Weather and seasonal predictions Prediction Initial Conditions X 0 +DX

16 Climate simulations and projections CO2 Aerosol External forcing: CO2, sun etc Initial Conditions X 0 +DX

17 Temporal scales and predictions Climate projections Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecasts Watches Forecast Lead Time Months 2 Week 1 Week Days Hours Seasons Climate prediction Weather forecast Years Forecast Uncertainty Boundary Conditions Warnings & Alert Coordination Minutes Initial Conditions Benefits Protection of Life & Property Flood Mitigation & Navigation Space Operation Transportation Fire Weather Hydropower Agriculture Reservoir Control Recreation Ecosystem Energy Health Commerce State/Local Planning Environment

18 Climate information at regional scale Regional modeling able to reconstruct present climate variability and Extremes... Here a coparison between obs and modeled SST after 40 years of coupled simulation 2000

19 Climate projections at regional scale Future climate Present climate no. events : 28 no. events : 97 no. events : 117 no. events : 226 VAR: pr>1 mm/day : land Dell Aquila et al., 2012 occurence MAM JJA SON DJF Season

20 Research for climate services The energy sector Extreme events

21 Renewable energy Energy by the sea

22 Prediction for the electrical grid

23 Prediction for the electrical grid Consumption Température

24 Temperature weather forecast Forecast Initial Conditions X 0 +DX

25 Electrical grid forecast Statistical forecast Perfect forecast Dynamical-stat forecast Error

26 Temperature seasonal forecast Forecast Initial Conditions X 0 +DX

27 Seasonal forecast for the electrical grid

28 Climate projections Applications for short term and Seasonal forecast What about long term...

29 Climate projections and wind farms

30 Present climat reconstruction ENSEMBLES RCMs 25Km ERA40 Mean DJF CMs 25Km ERA40 Mean DJF ENSEMBLES RCMs 25Km ERA40 ENSEMBLES RCMs 25Km ERA40 SPREAD DJF Hiver ENSEMBLES RCMs 25Km ERA40 Mean JJA CMs 25Km ERA40 Mean JJA ENSEMBLES RCMs 25Km ERA40 ENSEMBLES RCMs 25Km ERA40 SPREAD JJA

31 How good are the models? sembles Quikscat RCMs DJF ERA40 25km RMSE vs Quikscat Ensembles DJF RCMs ERA40 RMSE 25km Ensembl vs Quiks Hiver sembles Quikscat RCMs JJA ERA40 25km RMSE vs Quikscat Ensembles JJA RCMs ERA40 RMSE 25km Ensembl vs Quiks

32 Climat change and wind potential A1B GCMs wss changes vs ; DJ B RCMs wind speed changes vs ; DJF Hiver B RCMs wind speed changes vs ; JJA A1B GCMs wss changes vs ; JJA 2021/ /1990

33 Wave energy assessment Seasonal average energy flux Seasonal distribution of average power per unit crest in the Mediterranean. Averages are calculated for the entire ten years simulation.

34 Wave energy assessment Distribution of average wave power flux along Sicily and west Sardinia Distribution of average wave power flux per unit crest on western Sardinia and Sicilian coastline. Values are calculated on a line located 12 km off the coast.

35 Extreme events Rainfall extremes at regional scale Heat waves and impacts

36 Environmental risks

37 Rainfall extremes SON Do the resolution matter? RCM 50 km RCM 12 km 99 percentile

38 Rainfall extremes SON Obs Safran RCM 50 km RCM 12 km

39 Impacts on the tourism sector

40 Heat waves and large scale dynamics

41 Climatic simulations and projections CO2 Aerosol

42 Russian heat wave: anthropogenic effects Present climate Anthropogenic effects Natural variability

43 Possible impacts: wild fires

44 Impacts for the health sector Users (public health) familiar with climate indicators Heat Deaths (UK) Cold Deaths (UK) Needs Heat/cold effect indicators for mortality Air pollution Pollen-related risks Infectious disease Vector-borne disease Extreme events Animal health Current climate Ragweed Climate suitability Vardoulakis & Heaviside ATOPICA FP7 Storkey et al., 2014

45 Climate services: few ingredients Modeling skills especially at regional scale A better understanding of climate processes A multi-disciplinary approach

46 Challenges of climate services A short story Research on climate services Training and society

47 Economic value of impacts