Key information and data that is available, and transparent protocols required, to support mainstreaming of climate change into planning processes

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1 Key information and data that is available, and transparent protocols required, to support mainstreaming of climate change into planning processes Caspar Ammann National Center for Atmospheric Research

2 NCAR/NSF Scientific facilities - US National Science Foundation FFRDC Staff, 500 Scientists/Engineers, 4 Boulder campuses - Governed by > 104 universities HAO : High Altitude Observatory Earth Observing Laboratory : EOL NESL :NCAR Earth System Laboratory Computational & Information Systems : CISL RAL : Research Applications Laboratory ISP: Integrated Science Program (crosscutting)

3 Outline 1. climate science tools and climate change research 2. the practitioners dilemma and other challenges 3. development of effective / best-practice protocols and the need for iterative steps 4. future developments and potential scenario tools

4 Best/effective Practice for Embedding Climate Science iterative process for identifying weather/climate vulnerability ( indices ) need for good observational baseline test prediction/projection tools on indices and in contexts recognize limitations resulting from spatial resolution and bias issues understand, make transparent, further explore uncertainties form community of practice focused on applications while recognizing context of societal and physical realities

5 Studying Weather and Climate Weather/Climate Diagnostics Information about Past Climate Climate Models / Earth System Models

Outlook Guidance Tools: Weather vs Climate

Threats Assessments Forecast Watches Alerts

& Property Flood Mitigation & Navigation

Hydropower Agriculture Reservoir Control

6 Outlook Guidance Tools: Weather vs Climate Trying to bridge the gap Forecast Lead Threats Assessments Forecast Watches Alerts 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years Climate Prediction Forecast Uncertainty Climate Change Boundary Conditions Hours Days Weather Prediction Minutes Initial Conditions Space Affected Protection of Life & Property Flood Mitigation & Navigation Space Operation Transportation Fire Weather Hydropower Agriculture Reservoir Control Recreation Ecosystem Energy Health Commerce State/Local Planning Environment

8 Weather Modeling need good initial conditions M o d e l s O b s e r v a t i o n s

9 Tools to Study Climate From global radiation to regional processes and impacts

10 IPCC AR5 : Release Sept. 27, 2013

12 Sea Level

13 Intra-Seasonal Variability when wet : wetter.. when dry : drier...

14 Next 20-40yrs: Internal Variability dominates Regional Climate Change (in models) Hawkins and Sutten (2009)

15 Global processes well understood. What does it mean for different regions?

16 The Practitioners Dilemma + Present Precip - Future + Temperature after Laurna Kaatz, Denver Water

17 Stocktaking : Climate Science Needs what weather events or climate characteristics are seen as the primary threat for your country? which is next? how do you recognize change against natural variability? if adapting for ongoing/future changes, what are implications for connected socio-economic areas? what assistance would benefit your adaptation planning process most effectively?

18 ... challenges to be aware of... Resolution issues Internal variability ( weather : do ensembles) Model biases and uncertainties Limited understanding ( change in variability )

Horizontal Grid Size (Km) 200 150 100 FV 2.0 T85 1.4 FV 1.0 T170 0.

Carbon Cycle + BGC Spinups Regional MJO/MLC Convergence 50 0 FV 0.

19 300 T km IPCC AR Global General Atm/Ocn Circulation 250 Horizontal Grid Size (Km) FV 2.0 T FV 1.0 T km 160km 110km 78km IPCC AR TF Continental Scale Flow Carbon Cycle + BGC Spinups Regional MJO/MLC Convergence 50 0 FV 0.5 T FV 0.25 FV km 39km 28km 11km Lawrence Buja (NCAR) IPCC AR TF CCSM Grand Challenge PF Sub-Regional Hurricanes

20 Precision WRF: WRF-Hurricane, WRF-Chem, WRF-Health, WRF-Crop

21 Resolution Requirements: Snow in Terrain 1 Nov May 2008 WRF - Roy Rasmussen (NCAR-RAL)

22 Interpreting an Ensemble of a Scenario Ensemble : pixels are independent point-wise expected values Requirement: sampling from same process 22 Images curtesy J. Salavon

23 Ensemble Climate Simulations

future MM5 Iowa State/ PNNL RegCM3 UC Santa Cruz ICTP CRCM Quebec, Ouranos HADRM3 Hadley

24 NARCCAP PLAN Phase II A2 Emissions Scenario Global Models GFDL Time slice 50 km GFDL CGCM3 HADCM3 CCSM CAM3 Time slice 50km current Provide boundary conditions future MM5 Iowa State/ PNNL RegCM3 UC Santa Cruz ICTP CRCM Quebec, Ouranos HADRM3 Hadley Centre RSM Scripps WRF NCAR/ PNNL Regional Models Linda Mearns / NCAR

25 Significant large scale differences / ranges Precipitation Projection CMIP-3 statistically downscaled 50km B1 small... dry median wet... A1B medium A2 large Data: Maurer et al based on statistical downscaling with bias-correction (Wood et al. 2004) Visualization: Climate Wizard (

26 GFDL CM 2.1 Downscaled txx, max, July BCCA ARRM ECP2 RCM3 HRM3

27 Application Context: Precip Biases Critical Need for Translation and Guidance Extremes Space / Time OBS 1 MODEL o Odisha, India

28 Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment CORDEX

29 Application Context Need for Translation and Guidance DaNang : Typhoon Experimental Design

31 Focus on Regional Climate and Impacts Integration of data and knowledge across scales. Global - to - Local e.g.: Utility Planning

Production assumptions? What are the uncertainties?

32 Need for a ClimateTranslator Data: access, use (format, index, resolution) Which data to use? How to read it? Where does it come from? Evaluation: Quality Control Inter-comparison, data content info How good is data? Production assumptions? What are the uncertainties? Translation of Scientific Knowledge for exploration of impacts of change, guidance of use What does it mean? What is likely, what possible? Change in context? Community of Practice Collaboratively develops data requirements, handling of scenarios

33 Data: Precipitation Precipitation Application-specific evaluation needed Gorakhpur : Monsoon Nebraska : Drought Hex River : Flash Flood DaNang : Typhoon

34 Standardized Data Evaluation for SE Asia?

38 Provide information with balance To be relevant, need to establish the right balance! 80% 10% Efficient data access, handling 15% 70% Flexible analysis, evaluation, exploration 5% 20% Communication, visualization

39 Is there an App for that?

40 Climate Data Guide WREF Talks Sue / Ca

/ other data South-Col: Test models, scenarios Summit: Integrated impact

41 Developing Communities of Practice Helping Gorakhpur: Climbing Everest Map: Define climate/other vulnerabilities Base-camp: Get all obs. / other data South-Col: Test models, scenarios Summit: Integrated impact analysis Get back safely: Translate, guide Khumbu: Iteratively identify relationships

42 But how are we going to explore all possible options, from the science and management perspective? What is Likely? What is Possible?

43 Efficiently explore different scenarios (emissions, mean response, individual events, pathways, contexts)

44 Best/effective Practice for Embedding Climate Science realizing that an iterative process is needed for identifying weather/climate vulnerability ( indices ) the need for good and available observational baseline required tests of tools on indices and for contexts recognize inherent limitations resulting from spatial resolution and biases in climate products understand the different sources, make transparent for impacts and further explore uncertainties / scenarios form a community of practice focused on applications while recognizing context of societal and physical realities

45 Thanks! Any Questions? Caspar Ammann, National Center for Atmospheric Research 45

The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) Raymond W. Arritt for the NARCCAP Team Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa USA

The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) Raymond W. Arritt for the NARCCAP Team Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa USA NARCCAP Participants Raymond Arritt, David Flory, William