Climate Summary for the Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership

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Kristina Osborne
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1 Climate Summary for the Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership Compiled by: Linda Joyce 1, Marian Talbert 2, Darrin Sharp 3, John Stevenson 4 and Jeff Morisette 2 1 USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station 2 DOI North Central Climate Science Center 3 Oregon Climate Change Research Inst. (OCCRI) 4 PNW Climate Impacts Research Consortium (CIRC) Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership

2 outline - General overview of climate modeling - Historical and projected climate for the NRAP region - Sub-region specific climate information Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership

3 Historical data Long term (paleo-climate) Observations from weather stations Gridded observations Historical modeled Projections for future scenarios Global Climate Models Statistically Downscaled Global Climate Models Regional Climate Models Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership

4 Model physics Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership

5 Downscaling Image courtesy of John Stamm, USGS Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership

6 Modeled human (anthropogenic) forcings RCP = representative concentration pathways Energy sources by sector (van Vuuren et.al. 2011) Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership

7 The NRAP Climate Summary Chapter will use Historical Climate Data come from: Maurer et al. dataset (2002) PRISM (2014) Modeled climate data come from: CMIP5 - Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Data Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP): 4.5 and 8.5 with Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) statistical downscaling algorithm (Wood et al., 2004) Looking at normal (~30 year averages) for , , and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership

8 Variability across climate models Example for NRAP Central Region

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15 Central NRAP Subregion Historic and Projected Climate Climatologically, the region sits at the boundary between the warm, wet, maritime airflows from the Pacific Ocean, and the cooler, drier airflows from Canada. Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership

16 Historic trends indicate statistically significant warming, with a minimal increase in ppt. Tmax = 0.13 F/decade, Tmin = 0.26 F/decade. 4km PRISM data

17 Projections call for continued warming, with emissions being a major uncertainty. Tmin/Tmax F by 2100, as compared to CMIP5 model ensemble

18 Projections call for continued warming, with emissions being a major uncertainty. Tmin/Tmax F by 2100, as compared to CMIP5 model ensemble

19 Projections for ppt are less certain; but it will probably be slightly wetter on an annual basis. CMIP5 model ensemble

20 Seasonal Tmax. Warmer in all seasons. CMIP5 model ensemble

21 Seasonal Tmin. Warmer in all seasons. CMIP5 model ensemble

22 Seasonal Precipitation. Suggestion is for drier summers; wetter winters and springs; fall about the same. CMIP5 model ensemble

23 Other subregions exhibit similar responses. Historic ( ) Future (at 2100) Mean Monthly Tmax, Tmin, Ppt Tmax ( F) Tmin ( F) Ppt (in) Slight increase An increase of ~5-15% annually Fall = ~same Winter & Spring = a little wetter Summer = a little drier Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership

24 Regional summary: Yellowstone: Climate variability is strongly influenced by the interactions with topography, elevation, and aspect. Grasslands: Pattern of dryer west and wetter east, with the average of climate models showing a slight shift for more of the wetter east and warming implies earlier snow melt. East, Central, and West: Warmer and slightly wetter. Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership

25 Some important terms & acronyms Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports (AR) FAR (first AR), second (SAR), third (TAR), AR4, AR5, CMIP5 - Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5 = most current & goes with Assessment Report 5) GCM: Global Climate Models RCM: Regional Climate Models Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (which is the CMIP5 term for emissions scenarios, in CMIP3 they were referred to as SRES, special report on Emissions Scenarios) Downscaling: statistical or dynamical Northern Northern Rockies Rockies Adaptation Partnership

Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership: Climate Projections

Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership: Climate Projections Contents Observed and Projected Climate for the NRAP Region... 2 Observed and Projected Climate for the NRAP Central Subregion... 8 Observed