Prairie Climate Centre Prairie Climate Atlas. Visualizing Climate Change Projections for the Canadian Prairie Provinces
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1 Prairie Climate Centre Prairie Climate Atlas Visualizing Climate Change Projections for the Canadian Prairie Provinces
2 Acknowledgements
3 About Us Dr. Danny Blair Dr. Ian Mauro Ryan Smith, MSc Dr. Hank Venema Scientific Director, Prairie Climate Centre Climatologist Associate Dean, Faculty of Science Principal, Richardson College for the Environment Professor, Department of Geography University of Winnipeg Communications Director, Prairie Climate Centre Film maker, environmental scientist Associate Professor, Department of Geography University of Winnipeg Research Associate, Prairie Climate Centre Climate researcher, computer programmer and map designer University of Winnipeg Planning Director, Prairie Climate Centre Policy analyst, International Institute for Sustainable Development Professional engineer Climate, water, energy, ecosystem management, environmental economics, agriculture policy expert
4 Outline o We use data from 12 downscaled global climate models to produce ensemble (average) projected conditions for the region o Downscaled data was produced by the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) in Victoria, BC o For any location/area in the Prairie Provinces (e.g., town, RM, crop district) we can provide a detailed summary of the projected climate changes o Projections using two Carbon Emissions Scenarios are used to represent the uncertainty associated with future concentrations of greenhouse gases o Projections are shown for two future time periods: near future ( ) and far future ( ). Changes often shown relative to baseline period (modeled).
5 Temperature Projections Summary o Climate projections were extracted from: o 12 Global Climate Models, each using o 2 Carbon Emissions Scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) Range within Projections (RCP8.5) Range within Current Climate Range within Projections (RCP4.5) Recent Past Near Future Far Future ( ) ( ) ( )
6 Tailor-made Reports
7 Tailor-made Reports
8 Tailor-made Reports
9 Tailor-made Reports We can generate reports for any shape-file area.
10 Days -30 or Colder
11 Shifting Extremes Change in the Number of Very Cold Days This is the type of image that will be on our website. Draped over scalable Google Earth images. Major centres will be clickable, to obtain data details Annual number of days -30 C Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
12 Shifting Extremes Change in the Number of Very Cold Days Five different versions of maps for each variable will be presented: (RCP4.5) (RCP8.5) (RCP4.5) (RCP8.5) Annual number of days -30 C Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
13 Shifting Extremes Change in the Number of Very Cold Days Annual number of days -30 C Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
14 Shifting Extremes Change in the Number of Very Cold Days Annual number of days -30 C Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
15 Shifting Extremes Change in the Number of Very Cold Days Annual number of days -30 C Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
16 Days +30 or Warmer
17 Shifting Extremes Change in the Number of Very Hot Days Annual number of days 30 C Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
18 Shifting Extremes Change in the Number of Very Hot Days Annual number of days 30 C Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
19 Shifting Extremes Change in the Number of Very Hot Days Annual number of days 30 C Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
20 Shifting Extremes Change in the Number of Very Hot Days Annual number of days 30 C Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
21 Shifting Extremes Change in the Number of Very Hot Days Annual number of days 30 C Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
22 Frost-Free Period
23 Frost-Free Period A Much Longer Growing Season Length of the Frost-Free Period (days) Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
24 Frost-Free Period A Much Longer Growing Season Length of the Frost-Free Period (days) Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
25 Frost-Free Period A Much Longer Growing Season Length of the Frost-Free Period (days) Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
26 Frost-Free Period A Much Longer Growing Season Length of the Frost-Free Period (days) Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
27 Frost-Free Period A Much Longer Growing Season Length of the Frost-Free Period (days) Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
28 Temperature Change ( o C) from ΔT: RCP Edmonton Regina Winnipeg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
29 Spring Precipitation
30 Prairie Precipitation Projected Changes in Total Spring Precipitation Total Spring Precipitation (mm) Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
31 Prairie Precipitation Projected Changes in Total Spring Precipitation Total Spring Precipitation (mm) Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
32 Prairie Precipitation Projected Changes in Total Spring Precipitation Total Spring Precipitation (mm) Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
33 Prairie Precipitation Projected Changes in Total Spring Precipitation Total Spring Precipitation (mm) Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
34 Prairie Precipitation Projected Changes in Total Spring Precipitation Total Spring Precipitation (mm) Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
35 Summer Precipitation
36 Prairie Precipitation Projected Changes in Total Summer Precipitation Total Summer Precipitation (mm) Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
37 Prairie Precipitation Projected Changes in Total Summer Precipitation Total Summer Precipitation (mm) Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
38 Prairie Precipitation Projected Changes in Total Summer Precipitation Total Summer Precipitation (mm) Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
39 Prairie Precipitation Projected Changes in Total Summer Precipitation Total Summer Precipitation (mm) Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
40 Prairie Precipitation Projected Changes in Total Summer Precipitation Total Summer Precipitation (mm) Recent Past Near Future Far Future Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), University of Victoria, (2014). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificclimate.org.
41 % Change from ΔPPT: RCP Edmonton Regina Winnipeg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
42 An Example of Climate Analogues
43 Winnipeg Winter Climate Analogues AdaptWest data was used to identify whose climates we will have in the future, using seasonal temperature and precipitation projections. Summer Winter 2020s 2050s 2080s
44 Winnipeg Winter Climate Analogues Similarity index: Mean temperature within 1 C Total precipitation within 20% Summer Winter 2020s 2050s 2080s
45 Winnipeg Winter Climate Analogues Summer Winter 2020s 2050s 2080s
46 Winnipeg Summer Climate Analogues Summer Winter 2020s 2050s 2080s
47 Winnipeg Summer Climate Analogues Summer Winter 2020s 2050s 2080s
48 Winnipeg Summer Climate Analogues Summer Winter 2020s 2050s 2080s
49 References BCSD-downscaled climate data supplied by: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, (Jan. 2015). Statistically Downscaled Climate Scenarios. Downloaded from pacificcliamte.org THANK YOU PCIC! AdaptWest Project Gridded current and projected climate data for North America at 1km resolution, interpolated using the ClimateNA v5.10 software (T. Wang et al., 2015). Available at adaptwest.databasin.org
50 Role of the Prairie Climate Centre Inform policy and develop solutions Inspire adaptation and mitigation Make climate change data accessible to all Build decision making tools Produce peer-reviewed research results Foster Prairie-wide collaborations and partnerships Conduct workshops and training sessions Educate the public
51 Implications Shifting seasons Shorter, warmer winters Longer, hotter summers More precipitation in winter, spring, fall Less precipitation in summer More intense precipitation events More severe weather More heat waves A less stable climate
52 Risks Floods and droughts Water resource management Human health Crop failure Invasive species Forest fires Winter roads Infrastructure and building codes Disaster management and response Summer energy demand
53 Benefits Longer growing season New crop varieties Lower winter heating costs Fewer extreme cold events
54 Thank You We look forward to working with you
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Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) Jan 63.9 39.3 51.6 86 1976 16 56.6 1986 20 1976 2 47.5 1973
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Temperature ( F) Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) Jan 32.8 21.7 27.3 62 1918 1 35.8 1983-24 1950 29 10.5 1979