CLIPDAR -- DESIGN GUIDELINE FOR A CLIMATE PROJECTION DATA BASE AND SPECIFIC CLIMATE

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1 CEDR Transnational Road Research Programme Call 2012 Road owners adapting to Climate Change CLIPDAR -- DESIGN GUIDELINE FOR A CLIMATE PROJECTION DATA BASE AND SPECIFIC CLIMATE INDICES FOR ROADS CHRISTOPH MATULLA a, JOACHIM NAMYSLO b, KONRAD ANDRE a, BARBARA CHIMANI a, TOBIAS FUCHS b, BRIGITTA HOLLOSI a a Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria b German National Meteorological Service, Germany Transport Research Arena, Paris, April 2014

2 2/14 THE CLIPDAR PROJECT CEDR Transnational Road Research Programme Call 2012: Road owners adapting to Climate Change February 2013 April 2014 Consortium: Coordinator: German National Meteorological Service, DWD, Germany Project Manager: Joachim Namyslo (DWD), Germany Partner: Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, ZAMG, Austria Project budget: CliPDaR provided six deliverables and one guideline to the CEDR and was presented at a number of international/national conferences. Besides, it contributes a peer-reviewed paper and an oral presentation at TRA

3 BACKGROUND The mission of CliPDaR is to provide road authorities with a guideline supporting decision making regarding the planning, reinforcement and maintenance of transport infrastructure. CliPDaR identifies climate phenomena potentially harming transport assets and helps estimating future damage risks. 3/14

4 4/14 THE CAUSE-EFFECT-TENSOR Relationships between climate (climate indices, CIs) and road infrastructure elements are of central importance. An objective way to isolate CIs is to analyze the functional dependency between time series of damages and climatological variables. Much is known from the literature. Extreme precipitation can cause Road structure collapse Sewer system fills up, water flows on street level Danger to coastal road transportation Rainfall-induced landslides Low visibility (safety) Extreme temperature can cause Buckling of road surface Rutting of pavement Thermal expansion on bridge expansion joints Increased frequencies of freeze-thaw cycles result deterioration of road pavements

5 5/14 METHODS The CliPDaR process step by step: i. Selection of a socio-economic scenario. ii. Scenarios are translated via gas-cycle models into concentrations, forcing the climate system via the radiation transfer in the atmosphere. iii. Drive GCMs with the temporal development of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, but constant external radiative forcings. iv. Downscaling: take information known at large scales to derive local scale projections. v. Assessment of possible impacts that mankind may exert on ecosystems or economic structures. vi. Anticipating the effects of climate change and minimize the damage they can cause.

6 6/14 DATA Regional scale past and climate change projections (KLIWAS17 ensemble) A1B emission scenario (estimated CO 2 level by 2100 is 717 ppm) Based on Regional Climate Model projections providing daily values of mean temperature, precipitation sum, relative humidity and sum of global radiation These climate variables are statistically downscaled to a 5-km-grid and bias-corrected. Continental scale past and climate change projections A1B and A2 emission scenario (A2 estimated CO 2 level by 2100 is 856 ppm) Based on Global Model projections providing values of 850hPa temperature and via an EOF approach compared to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.

7 7/14 RESULTS POSSIBLE FUTURE OF COLD WINTERS IN FENNOSCANDIA Select the coldest past seasons Apply an EOF analysis Calculate the first future time coefficient Compare the near and the far future to the past appearance of the first EOF

8 8/14 RESULTS POSSIBLE FUTURE OF FROST DAYS IN CENTRAL EUROPE Frost days (T min <0 C): Compare the near ( ) and the far ( ) future to reference period ( ) conditions

9 9/14 RESULTS POSSIBLE FUTURE OF SUMMER DAYS IN CENTRAL EUROPE Summer days (T max 25 C): Compare the near ( ) and the far ( ) future to reference period ( ) conditions

10 10/14 RESULTS POSSIBLE FUTURE OF RUTTING DAYS INCENTRAL EUROPE Potential rutting days: T max 30 C and T night, min >20 C Compare the near ( ) and the far ( ) future to reference period ( ) conditions

11 11/14 RESULTS POSSIBLE FUTURE OF LANDSLIDE DAYS INCENTRAL EUROPE Potential landslide days : P day >25.6mm and P 3day >37.3mm Compare the near ( ) and the far ( ) future to reference period ( ) conditions

12 12/14 SUMMARY Road sector is vulnerable to extreme weather phenomena (socio-economic consequences) Essential to know the impacts of global climate change on road network This is achieved through ensembles of climate change projections and the use of Climate Indices (CIs), describing changes in transport damage risks Extreme index days as ice days and hot days will probably change less compared to not-so-extreme index days as frost days and summer days Potential increases in the risk of damages related to very high and very low temperatures and to extreme precipitation events: Rutting days (and blow ups) Landslides

13 13/14 OUTLOOK Enlarge the region stepwise by consistently including further European countries Use new scenarios (RCPs of EURO-CORDEX) Avoid the mixing of datasets ( the political border problem ) Ensure highest quality of data no breaks along borders Include air traffic and railway transport Expand the analysis to further CIs damage of bridges and tunnels road structures collapse water to street level collision risks in transport thermal expansion on bridge expansion joints ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

14 14/14 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! The CliPDaR team