Alberto Troccoli, Head of Weather and Energy Research Unit, CSIRO, Australia ICCS 2013 Jamaica, 5 December 2013 (remotely, unfortunately)

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1 013 Alberto Troccoli, Head of Weather and Energy Research Unit, CSIRO, Australia ICCS 013 Jamaica, 5 December 013 (remotely, unfortunately)

2 Historical and projected changes in World primary energy demand by fuel Mtoe Policies Scenario Other renewables Biomass and waste Hydro Nuclear Gas Coal Oil The Interna*onal Energy & Meteorology Community Alberto Troccoli

3 Projected changes in incremental global primary energy demand Coal OECD Oil Gas China Rest of world Nuclear Hydro Other renewables! 600! Demand for all types of energy increases in non- OECD countries, while demand for coal & oil declines in the OECD (IEA, World Energy Outlook 010) Mtoe 3 The Interna*onal Energy & Meteorology Community Alberto Troccoli

4 Meteorological variables of relevance to the energy industry Humidity Cloudiness Temperature Rainfall Wind speed and/or direc*on Short- wave radia*on Snowfall and ice accre*on Sea level Wave height 4 The Interna*onal Energy & Meteorology Community Alberto Troccoli

5 Effect on wind energy Effect on solar energy (PV) Effect of solar energy (CSP) 5 The Interna*onal Energy & Meteorology Community Alberto Troccoli

6 Effect on hydropower Effect on biofuels Effect of waves on oil industry 6 The Interna*onal Energy & Meteorology Community Alberto Troccoli

7 Effect of floods on coal mines Effect of hurricanes on oil plarorms Effect of high temperature on nuclear reactors 7 The Interna*onal Energy & Meteorology Community Alberto Troccoli

8 nd International Conference Energy & Meteorology Weather & Climate for the Energy Industry 5 8 June 013, Météo-France International Conference Centre, Toulouse, France What is the nd International Conference Energy & Meteorology? A unique forum for exploring the nexus between weather, climate and energy, building upon the success of the Australia. Who will be the delegates at ICEM 013? Scientists, engineers, economists, policy makers, researchers, consultants and other specialists in energy and/or meteorology. Key Dates Abstract deadline Early Bird Registration Conference Starts Key topics Weather & Climate in Energy: Generation (including Renewables and Biofuels), Resource Assessment, Planning, Forecasting, Storage, Extraction, Transportation, Transmission, Distribution, Demand, Smart Grids, Finance and Insurance. A pre-conference seminar on Uncertainty in meteorological data for the What will you gain by attending ICEM 013? knowledge for planning in the energy industry weather and climate risk by the energy industry Enhance coordination between experts in weather and climate research Build an international network for the exchange of information. For further information please visit: or contact ICEM 013 Secretariat, C/- The Association Specialists Pty Ltd P F E Conference Co-Ordinators 8 The Interna*onal Energy & Meteorology Community Alberto Troccoli

9 ICEM 013 in a nutshell Identification of key meteorological issues to better support the energy industry Strengthened links between the energy industry and the weather and climate communities 9 The Interna*onal Energy & Meteorology Community Alberto Troccoli

10 DC 3 4 DC DC Australian NaTonal Energy Market TRANSMISSION INFRASTRUCTURE POWER STATION SUBSTATION WINDFARM 500 KV TRANSMISSION LINE 330 KV TRANSMISSION LINE DC 3 REGIONAL BOUNDARIES SYD WEST 75 KV TRANSMISSION LINE 0 KV TRANSMISSION LINE 13 / 110 KV LINE 66 KV LINE DC LINK MULTIPLE CIRCUIT LINES REGIONAL REFERENCE NODE QUEENSLAND NEW SOUTH WALES VICTORIA SOUTH AUSTRALIA TASMANIA SOUTH PINE Run by Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) ~50MW installed capacity Market coupled to physical operation at 5 min intervals Current: Wind.5 GW (April 01) Solar PV.1 GW (Nov 01) By 030: TORRENS ISLAND WEST SYDNEY Wind growing to 10 GW Solar PV growing to 13 GW THOMASTOWN GEORGE TOWN Wind forecasting since late 008 (AWEFS) 10 The Interna*onal Energy & Meteorology Community Alberto Troccoli

11 Australian Wind Energy ForecasTng System OperaTonal since 008 Normalised Mean Absolute Error (NMAE) 0.00% 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 1.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00%.00% 0.00% Oct- 08 Nov- 08 Dec- 08 Jan- 09 Feb- 09 Mar- 09 Apr- 09 May- 09 Jun- 09 Jul- 09 Aug- 09 Sep- 09 Oct- 09 Nov- 09 Dec- 09 Jan- 10 Feb- 10 Mar- 10 Apr- 10 May- 10 Jun- 10 Jul- 10 Aug- 10 Sep- 10 Oct- 10 Nov- 10 Dec- 10 Jan- 11 Feb- 11 Mar- 11 Apr- 11 May- 11 Jun- 11 Jul minutes ahead 1 hour ahead (0-60 min) 4 hours ahead (0-40 min) 40 hours ahead (0-400 min) 6 days ahead ( min) 11 The Interna*onal Energy & Meteorology Community Alberto Troccoli

12 Australian Solar Energy ForecasTng System Being implemented lead Tmes from 5 min to years Atmospheric model Ground sta*ons Satellite Met inputs Prediction Sta*s*cal model 1 The Interna*onal Energy & Meteorology Community Alberto Troccoli

13 Thank you Weather and Energy Research Unit, CSIRO Alberto Troccoli T: E:

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