Climate Change: bridging scientific knowledge and public policy. Forum Parliament House, Canberra 18 March 2010

Transcription

1 Climate Change: bridging scientific knowledge and public policy Forum Parliament House, Canberra 18 March 2010

2 Opening Comments Prof. Peter Coaldrake Chair Universities Australia

3 Session 1 Climate change in Australia today: the evidence Chair: Prof. Peter Coaldrake Chair, Universities Australia

4 Australia s climate has changed the climate record Dr Blair Trewin National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology

5 Australian Climate: The Past 100 Years of Change Blair Trewin Bureau of Meteorology

6 Australian Temperatures Temperature has increased by about 0.7 C since to 2009 was Australia s warmest decade on record 2005 was Australia s warmest year on record, 2009 the second warmest

7 Warming has occurred throughout Australia

8 Changes in Maximum Temperature Extremes Distribution of High Maximum Temperatures Number in Each Year Decadal mean Year Highest daily maximum temperatures tend to occur in recent years More sites recorded highest daily maximum temperatures in 2009 than in any other year

9 Australian Rainfall Substantial increases in many parts of northern and central Australia Substantial decreases since 1960 across much of southern and eastern Australia

10 The SE Australian drought in a historical perspective Current 9-year drought on a par with and Current long-term drought clearly worst on record in much of Victoria and southern MDB

11 Other changes (and non-changes) Extreme rainfall trends mostly follow means up in N and W, down in S and E Tropical cyclones weak downward trend in total numbers since 1970, no clear trend in intense cyclones Evaporation trends weak Atmospheric moisture (humidity) generally slightly up Increased number of extreme fire weather days in SE Australia

12 Number of tropical cyclones All cyclones Intense cyclones

13 Climate in SE Australia hotter, drier with increased risks Prof. Roger Jones Centre for Strategic Economic Studies Victoria University

14 Climate in SE Australia: hotter, drier, with increased risks Roger Jones March 18, 2010 Acknowledgements Melbourne Water, Rae Moran DSE, Bertrand Timbal CAWCR, Bureau of Meteorology 14

15 Since late 1996 SE Australia is drier Rainfall Deciles: Nov Oct 2007 A 15

16 Average rainfall pre and post 1997 South of the Great Divide Rainfall (mm) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Rainfall (mm) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec North of the Great Divide 16

17 Annual max temp for SE Australia P< ~1 C 17

18 Melbourne Water inflows Inflows (Gigalitres/year) % Inflows

19 Changes compared to projections Melb Water supply system 0 3 Change in rainfall (%) Change in temperature ( C) Projected Rainfall (%) Observed rainfall ( ) Projected max temp ( C) Observed max temp ( ) 0 Change in streamflow (%) Projected flow change Observed flow change 19

20 Fires to

21 Fires to

22 Subtropical ridge intensification Timbal, CAWCR 22

23 Climate change plus variability means that we are in for a rough ride Single climate model simulation 23

24 CONTACT DETAILS Roger Jones Centre for Strategic Economic Studies PHONE FAX roger.jones@vu.edu.au

25 Plants and animals reveal climate change Dr Marie Keatley Department of Forest and Ecosystem University of Melbourne

26 The climate change adaptation in Australian Agriculture Prof. Snow Barlow Melbourne School of Land and Environment and Primary Industries Adaptation Research Network NCCARF The University of Melbourne

27 Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture Australia s primary industries are already living with climate change Temperature Rainfall Extreme events Increasing temperatures are dramatically changing annual harvest events Major Southern Australian irrigation industries, are taking strong adaptation measures as a result of declining water availability Drier climates and more uncertain water supplies may be require new enterprises more resilient to uncertain water supplies to manage the risks Increased CO2 has the capacity to ameliorate only some of these drought effects in the medium term

28 Climate Change Adaptation Framework Transformational new climate, low carbon production systems Transformational Systems Changed industries New products Different systems New production areas Greater need for new and public RDE investment? Adaptation Actions Adapting Systems New crops New cropping systems New irrigations systems New markets Strategic adaptation and/or mitigation systems programs Adaptive Management Variety, sowing Irrigation mgmt Fertilizer mgmt Pest mgmt Disease Incremental change, current productivity programs Severity of Climate Change - (Temp, Rainfall & Extreme Events)

29 The Final Word Charles Darwin It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.